Yankees' No-Name Bullpen Set To Impress In 2009

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 23, 2009 6:00 AM EST

Yankee free agent commitments this off-season: $441MM

Percentage of free agent commitments to relievers: 2.7%

Yankee names my mother would recognize: 16

Bullpen names my mother would recognize: Mariano Rivera.

Next to leadership and clubhouse chemistry, talking heads harp on bullpen depth more than any other key to success. For a team willing to spend $200MM on their payroll, you might have guessed the Yankees would have gone after more big names for the bullpen, guys like Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes. The good news for Yankee fans, however, is that Mo and the No-Names make for a pretty good and cost-effective group of relievers. As us saber-geeks like to point out, bullpen depth is overrated and big name relievers tend to be over-priced. The bulllpen is the one spot where New York is underrated and under-paid.

Let's take a look at this merry group, and what value they can expect to provide in 2009. FIP and IP projections from CHONE over at Fangraphs. Salary information from Cots Baseball Contracts:

Reliever	FIP	IP	LI	RAR	Sal (MM)
Mariano Rivera	2.79	63	1.8	24	$15.0
Edwar Ramirez	3.43	64	1.0	9	$.5
Damaso Marte	3.76	50	1.3	7	$3.8
Joba Chamberlain	3.14	20	1.3	5	$.5
Phil Hughes*	3.48	40	0.8	4	$.5
Jose Veras	3.95	60	0.7	4	$.5
Alfredo Aceves	3.96	55	0.7	3	$.5
Ian Kennedy*	3.76	40	0.7	3	$.5
Brian Bruney	4.29	46	0.9	2	$1.3
Phil Coke*	4.02	30	0.8	2	$.5

(* -- FIPs decreased by .75 runs to account for the advantage of pitching out of the bullpen versus starting. Reliever IP estimated by me and are not CHONE's projections. Joba's FIP reduced by .25 runs to account for split time between the pen and rotation last year.)

There's some interesting stuff in that table:

The overall bullpen FIP projects to be 3.65 over 468 innings. The actual team ERA will likely be a bit higher thanks to the poor Yankee defensive alignement. The IP total is significantly lower than in 2008 and is below the AL average, but with the amazing rotation depth, the bullpen shouldn't be stretched too much.
62 runs above replacement would have placed the Yankees third among all thirty teams in 2008. In a large number of innings last year, the Yankee relievers provided 69 RAR, first in the majors. This year's team projects to be slightly better in quality, but should provide less value because they won't pitch as much.
Only Mo projects to be more than one win above replacement level in 2009. It just goes to show how unimportant bullpen filler really is. To put things in perspective, the league-leading team of position players in 2008 was worth 332 RAR (Boston), and the league-leading rotation was worth 216 RAR (Toronto).
While it's an overrated strength, the Yankees' no-name bullpen is deep with talented arms. Replacement-level FIP for the relievers is about 4.71, and nobody -- nobody! -- projects worse than a 4.29 FIP and all but two guys are under 4.00.
The total cost of the projected bullpen is $23.5MM. Without Mo, it's $8.5MM -- about $2.2MM per marginal win.
Edwar Ramirez could very well be the Yankees' breakout player of 2009. He should be quite good, and if Joe Girardi moves him into a setup role, he'll record a ton of important outs and become a Daily News darling.

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Comments

Are you projecting any time for Hughes and Kennedy in the rotation? Or just out of the bullpen?

by Dan Turkenkopf on Feb 23, 2009 8:39 AM EST reply actions

I'd definitely project some IP for Hughes in the rotation. 50 as a weighted average? IPK maybe a few, but less.

My own IP projections certainly aren’t the end-all, I just wanted to fill out the bullpen innings while not going above CHONE’s projections for a the relievers. As I point out, it doesn’t really matter once you get past the top 2-4 guys. I probably should have projected guys like Geise, Robertson, and Britton for handfuls of innings, but my point was on a larger scale.

I’m also sure someone like Bruney, Edwar (my personal pick), Veras, or Aceves will end up with 70-80 IP as they pitch well and really earn Girardi’s trust. Even last year, when the team racked up a TON of bullpen innings, only Mo had more than 57.2

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 23, 2009 9:05 AM EST up reply actions

Melancon and Albaladejo

Those two may get some of those innings you allotted for Hughes and Kennedy from the bullpen. Also, Britton is no longer with the Yankees.

Good article, though. I get really tired of how some say that just because the Yankees did nothing flashy with the bullpen means that they are destined for trouble.

by YankeeGoose on Feb 24, 2009 4:25 AM EST up reply actions

Mariano Rivera has got to realize that he's old at some point, doesn't he?

I really do like their bullpen, but at some point Mo has to feel his age, doesn’t he? It probably won’t be this year, and the Yanks have some options to fill in for him. I guess I’m just amazed at how effective and valuable Mo continues to be.

"If Bowden was a general contractor, he'd build houses with nine bedrooms, six garages, no bathrooms, and half a roof."

by DyeLongJustice on Feb 23, 2009 11:14 AM EST reply actions

I hear you...

Dude’s good. Hasn’t had a FIP over 3.00 since 2000 and hasn’t had fewer than 70 IP since 2002.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 23, 2009 11:37 AM EST up reply actions

I should probably hate Mariano Rivera, but I can't.

He’s just really awesome.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 23, 2009 11:29 AM EST reply actions

A note on Joba in the bullpen, which I posted at RAB:

I don’t think Joba should be in the bullpen, but I definitely think there’s a chance he will be. I only projected him for 20 relief innings and if you think of it as a 1/3 chance he throws 60 relief innings and a 2/3 chance he throws zero relief innings, it works out.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 23, 2009 12:00 PM EST reply actions

Edwar Ramirez

is a really really nice example of how teams should build a good bullpen. the guy was released by the Angels twice in A-ball, then ended up in Indy league before putting up ridiculas # downthere and got signed for nothing by the Yankees. and then tore through just about every level after that. (brief 2007 shelling in the majors non-withstanding)

On the other hand though, he’s not much of a power pitcher and his meh fastball / big changeup combo makes him a big flyball guy (0.68 GB/FB so far). so i’m not sure if having him as the setup guy is really the way to go. he’s going to strike out a ton of guys, but he’s also going to walk a couple then give up a 3 run homerun a little more often than you’d like.

(of course that Ramirez already reporting shoulder problems just 1 week into ST isn’t a good sign either)

By all accounts the Yankees seem to be looking at Marte as their #2 reliever right now. which isn’t particularly bad idea. either way though one of the things most Yankee watchers liked about Joe Giradi last year was that he seemed much more flexible in using his bullpen than Joe Torre did in the last few season .

Brian Cashman have done a nice job in finding decent relievers out of the scrap heap, Bruney they got from the D-backs off waiver, Ramirez was a indyball signing, Coke was a 26th round pick, Aceves was a low key signing out of the Mexican league. Veras was a minor league FA. that’s a really interesting mix of guys you usually don’t count on being useful.

by RollingWave on Feb 23, 2009 9:29 PM EST reply actions