Graph of the Day: Hardy vs. Quentin 2008

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 23, 2009 9:00 AM EST Comment 22 comments

WAR data from Fangraphs.

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Quentin was obviously over-hyped as a potential MVP candidate

once you look beyond his offensive contributions but it was nice to see him realize his talent after being somewhat maligned as a prospect.

Nice Robot

by azruavatar on Feb 23, 2009 9:23 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was surprised to see that Hardy was just as valuable in 2007.

Well, 4.5 WAR compared to 4.9 WAR. UZR had him at +15 UZR versus +8 this year.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 23, 2009 9:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I didn't know Quentin was such a defensive liability

I guess I just assumed that his rocket arm was equipped with a great glove.

by tcyoung on Feb 23, 2009 11:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

One season of data, obviously.

By bUZR, he’s +11 runs in RF per 150 (with DBs) and -4 per 150 in LF. Overall, he’s +3 runs per 150 in 2100 defensive innings.

In 2008, he was +3 with his arm and neg8 in range/errors.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 23, 2009 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

indeed.

by larry on Feb 23, 2009 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I remember looking at his page in Fangraphs

and seeing that he was about 4 runs above average overall a couple of months ago. The same thing happened with Chris Duncan who’s UZR/150 a couple of months ago was around 10, and now it was well below average.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Feb 23, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Quentin won't hit 35+ this year

Probably not better than 25. The wrist injury will be the culprit

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Feb 23, 2009 4:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

there are various kinds of "wrist injury"

for example, one might wish to consider the difference for a hitter in injuring their top hand or their bottom hand or what bone is actually broken. also, seven months is a rather long time in which to regain strength and flexibility.

"I asked the elders at the church to lay hands on me. I haven’t really thought about it. It’s all about gum and sunflower seeds now. Prayer works."

by larry on Feb 23, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sticking with the Hardy/Quentin comparison

I believe, but I don’t remember what type, Hardy had a wrist injury earlier in his Major League career. It really hampered his hitting, and you can see how his power skyrocketed after he got healthy from it.

by tcyoung on Feb 23, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Question on the fielding calc

I’m coming to the Graphs of the Day a bit late, but I love ’em Sky, so thanks! Quick question though: would you mind stating (or re-stating probably) how you do the Fielding calc?

I’m looking at Hardy’s Fangraphs page, and I match up all the numbers you list except fielding. Fangraphs shows at 8.1 as his UZR (and that’s the number they bring into the WAR calculation). Is there a positional adjustment added in?

And sorry if I’m missing something obvious. I’m good at that.

by lightbulb on Feb 23, 2009 4:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

He is right Sky

Did Fangraphs change there UZR numbers over the last couple of months? I am not talking about DPR or ARM because those changes aren’t very significant. I seem to remember a lot of players having different UZR numbers a month ago then they did now.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Feb 23, 2009 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Some DPR/ARM ratings are pretty significant.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 23, 2009 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ARM

I think the spread from first to worst last year was like 20 runs. But If I remember DPR, the spread was only 5 runs. Are those prorated to ARM/150 and DPR/150, cause that might explain it a little.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Feb 23, 2009 10:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't think that's it

It would appear that DPR/ARM are factored into the Fangraphs UZR calculation.

by lightbulb on Feb 23, 2009 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ahh, yes, the numbers were adjusted after I copied the data into my spreadsheet.

Hmm, guess I’ll need to re-grab the data. Thanks for pointing that out.

In case that doesn’t answer someone’s question, fielding is pure UZR from Fangraphs.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 23, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and you wonder why people at SSS hate you.

you guys and BP. numbers guys just hate the white sox. admit it, sky. i know you want to let it out.

"I asked the elders at the church to lay hands on me. I haven’t really thought about it. It’s all about gum and sunflower seeds now. Prayer works."

by larry on Feb 23, 2009 11:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you!

by lightbulb on Feb 24, 2009 7:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thank god for Quentin's hitting.

Let me just ask, while the point is valid, why are we comparing a LF to a SS?

by Daniel Berlyn on Feb 23, 2009 11:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

because that's what we do? compare the value of players?

"I asked the elders at the church to lay hands on me. I haven’t really thought about it. It’s all about gum and sunflower seeds now. Prayer works."

by larry on Feb 23, 2009 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I scrolled down through the list of 2008 WAR and was looking for players of similar value where public perception was vastly different.

And this is as good a time as any to point out that an overrated player isn’t necessarily a bad player. Quentin’s 44 WAR is All-Star caliber, even before considering the bump he gets from the newest/more complete version of UZR available at at Fangraphs. He was pretty darn good in 2008.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 23, 2009 11:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

point taken

though I’m not sure who thinks Hardy is a bad player. Anyway, what I am trying to say is that we don’t know how much we can rely on these fielding metrics just yet. I’m interested in finding out whether Quentin can rebound fielding wise, because he really took a steep drop last year for unknown reasons. My theory is that outfielders suffer a decline in fielding ratings when they move to more constricting parks. It might even have to do with him being less comfortable in left field than in right field, but that would be strange. Check out the year-by-year UZR for Jason Bay and Manny Ramirez. Would the Fenway handicap apply to U.S. Cellular Field?

by Daniel Berlyn on Feb 23, 2009 11:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What’s a “more constricting park”? UZR is park adjusted, so switching between parks should be accounted for, at least in theory. As for having more comfort playing LF than RF, I don’t know. BIP distribution between LF and RF is pretty similar.

Bay City Ball | Beyond the Box Score

by xanthan on Feb 24, 2009 8:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs