Graph of the Day: 2002 AL MVP Race

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 20, 2009 9:00 AM EST Comment 10 comments

Players listed in order of MVP finish, excluding pitchers.

WAR data from Fangraphs.

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Interesting you brought this up

I have been trying to use regression to determine the MVP, Cy Young, ROY and Hall of Fame. I got done with the numbers and found that this was one year that prediction was off. More on that later.

The one interesting thing I found out was that making the postseason will get you an additional 15% more votes than not making it.

Using the previous and future voting patterns, here is how these 5 lined up:

Actual Name Predicted
1 Miguel Tejada 5
2 Alex Rodriguez 2
3 Alfonso Soriano 1
4 Garret Anderson 9
5 Jason Giambi 3
6 Torii Hunter 10
7 Jim Thome 4

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Feb 20, 2009 10:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

VegasWatch.net has done some work for an MVP predictor, you should check it out.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 20, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

We are both pretty close in picking the races. I would like to get a little closer. I need to add a position factor and a “Rockies” factor in and see where I stand.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Feb 20, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously a great year for A-Rod

and can Torii Hunter replace Derek Jeter as the Internet’s favorite “Guy Who Needs to Be Exposed as Completely Overrated?”

What’s really interesting is how good Giambi was his first year in NYC, and yet there was already a sense of disappointment.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Feb 20, 2009 10:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

All right, we know Giambi was doing steroids in 2002. Thome has been tarred, but no feathers have ever stuck, and apparently Bud “Yes I’m Lying, Can’t You See My Lips Moving” Selig doesn’t have anyone in the Office who cares enough to leak something about whether Thome was tested and/or found wanting.

But I’ll give you odds that A-Rod has always outhit Tejada, and that the Idiotic BBWA members wouldn’t consider fielding even if they knew it has value.

by klhoughton on Feb 20, 2009 12:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

From what I have found from the regression numbers

The only stats the BBWAA seam to care about are:

HR
SB
AVG
Wins
Saves
SO
If players team made the postseason

I am working on seeing if there is postional bias (SS with Rollins and Tejada – then alex would get the bias)

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Feb 20, 2009 1:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm surprised RBI aren't on that list

I feel like other people have found strong correlation between leading the league in RBI and MVP performance. I can’t recall any cites at the moment though.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Feb 20, 2009 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I believe VegasWatch's research shows that RBIs matter if the player's team makes the playoffs

Or maybe RBIs matter a lot more if the team makes the playoffs.

Here’s the article at THT, which unfortunately lacks an exact formula: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/whos-going-to-be-the-mvp/

Here’s a good one at VegasWatch: http://vegaswatch.net/2007/11/mvp-tracker-al-2003-2006.html

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 20, 2009 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I ran the regression and it was insignificant.

I was looking a many factors, including home town bias from were the baseball writers are from. I currently have a R-square of .57 in predicting the percentage of votes with just those 7 factors. If it wasn’t for Rollins and Tejeda it would be much better. I just started running the numbers this past week to see if I could get to the magic R-squared of .7 and it seem extremely reachable. I plan on having my equations out by award time.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Feb 20, 2009 11:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs