2009 Projected Standings

by BurGi on Feb 13, 2009 10:30 AM EST

The last 3 days I've worked on a formula to project the standings of 2009 and now I have my results!

- What have I done?

1. I've given the teams values (the higher the better) for how strong I see them in 4 areas (Starting Pitching, Relief Pitching, Offense, Defense) ... using mostly stats from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and combining it with my own intuition/opinion on player performances in 2009!

2. I've weighed these values [1,25*(2/3 * SP + 1/3 * RP) + 1,1 * OFF + 0,45 * DEF + 0,2] and got "team values" or "team strength"!

3. I've looked up the schedules and noted how often every team plays against every team!

4. Then I calculated my projected wins in the following way (example: Rays against AL East):

- "average_al_east_strength" = [Games against Yankees * "yankees_strength" + games against Boston * "red_sox_strength" + ...] / Games against AL East teams overall

- "rays_projected_wins_division" = (Games against AL East teams)/2 + (Games against AL East teams)/2 * ["rays_strength" / "average_al_east_strength" - 1]

5. I summed up the projected wins in the division, in IL - play and in games against the other divisions in the league and had my results:

- Agenda:

W ... projected wins

% ... projected winning percentage

W_original ... projected wins just according to "team strength" (omitting the opponents according to schedule)

W_Div ... projected wins in division

%_Div ... projected winning percentage in division

W_Lea ... projected wins against the other 2 divisions in the same league

%_Lea ... projected winning percentage against the other 2 divisions in the same league

W_IL ... projected wins in interleague play

%_Div ... projected winning percentage in interleague play

SP ... value for starting pitching (strength of the SP)

RP ... value for relief pitching (strength of the BP)

OFF ... value for offense (offensive strength)

DEF ... value for defense (defensive strength)

OVERALL ... Overall "team strength" index

OPP ... Average opponent team strength

- Projected Standings:

AL East	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Boston Red Sox	98	0,603	100	41,2	0,573	45,8	0,636	10,9	0,605	0,70	0,70	0,65	0,50	2,015	1,676
New York Yankees	97	0,600	99	40,9	0,568	45,7	0,635	10,7	0,596	0,75	0,60	0,70	0,35	2,003	1,676
Tampa Bay Rays	97	0,598	99	40,5	0,563	45,8	0,636	10,8	0,601	0,70	0,55	0,60	0,70	1,988	1,668
Toronto Blue Jays	76	0,472	80	31,1	0,432	36,7	0,510	8,8	0,486	0,50	0,65	0,45	0,50	1,608	1,717
Baltimore Orioles	68	0,420	71	27,2	0,378	32,9	0,458	8,1	0,447	0,30	0,30	0,60	0,45	1,438	1,728
AVERAGE	87	0,539	90	36,0	0,500	41,4	0,575	9,8	0,547	0,59	0,56	0,60	0,50	1,810	1,693
AL Central	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Cleveland Indians	87	0,537	88	39,0	0,541	37,8	0,524	10,4	0,579	0,55	0,60	0,60	0,45	1,771	1,615
Minnesota Twins	81	0,501	81	36,4	0,505	35,2	0,488	9,8	0,542	0,60	0,45	0,53	0,35	1,628	1,618
Chicago White Sox	79	0,490	80	36,3	0,504	34,3	0,476	9,0	0,499	0,50	0,60	0,55	0,30	1,607	1,642
Detroit Tigers	77	0,475	76	34,8	0,484	33,2	0,461	9,1	0,506	0,45	0,40	0,60	0,30	1,537	1,631
Kansas City Royals	72	0,446	71	33,3	0,463	30,4	0,423	8,7	0,482	0,55	0,40	0,40	0,38	1,436	1,652
AVERAGE	79	0,490	79	36,0	0,500	34,2	0,474	9,4	0,522	0,53	0,49	0,54	0,36	1,596	1,632
AL West	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Los Angeles Angels	91	0,564	89	34,9	0,613	46,3	0,532	10,4	0,575	0,65	0,70	0,55	0,35	1,796	1,601
Oakland Athletics	77	0,476	77	28,7	0,503	39,3	0,452	9,3	0,516	0,50	0,60	0,40	0,50	1,554	1,640
Texas Rangers	73	0,452	73	26,9	0,373	37,6	0,433	8,9	0,496	0,30	0,30	0,70	0,30	1,480	1,642
Seattle Mariners	67	0,414	68	24,1	0,335	34,9	0,402	8,2	0,458	0,55	0,30	0,30	0,55	1,361	1,647
AVERAGE	77	0,477	77	28,5	0,500	39,5	0,455	9,2	0,511	0,50	0,48	0,49	0,44	1,548	1,632
NL East	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Philadelphia Phillies	93	0,575	93	40,6	0,565	43,5	0,604	9,3	0,515	0,58	0,60	0,57	0,72	1,884	1,633
New York Mets	90	0,554	90	39,0	0,541	43,9	0,585	7,0	0,468	0,60	0,65	0,57	0,50	1,823	1,644
Florida Marlins	85	0,527	87	37,1	0,515	40,2	0,558	8,3	0,463	0,60	0,35	0,60	0,55	1,753	1,658
Atlanta Braves	85	0,523	86	36,5	0,507	41,4	0,552	6,9	0,463	0,70	0,50	0,50	0,42	1,731	1,652
Washington Nationals	66	0,406	68	27,4	0,381	31,6	0,440	6,8	0,380	0,30	0,40	0,50	0,45	1,369	1,686
AVERAGE	84	0,517	85	36,0	0,500	40,1	0,548	7,7	0,457	0,56	0,50	0,55	0,53	1,712	1,655
NL Central	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Chicago Cubs	98	0,603	94	50,6	0,632	38,3	0,579	8,4	0,562	0,65	0,55	0,65	0,45	1,888	1,562
Cincinnati Reds	81	0,500	79	41,5	0,518	32,6	0,486	7,1	0,473	0,60	0,55	0,45	0,38	1,595	1,590
St. Louis Cardinals	80	0,491	78	40,3	0,504	32,1	0,479	7,3	0,488	0,50	0,35	0,55	0,45	1,570	1,591
Milwaukee Brewers	77	0,474	76	38,3	0,485	31,8	0,468	6,8	0,454	0,45	0,35	0,55	0,45	1,528	1,604
Houston Astros	75	0,463	74	36,8	0,472	31,2	0,452	7,2	0,479	0,40	0,55	0,45	0,52	1,492	1,603
Pittsburgh Pirates	63	0,389	63	30,3	0,393	27,1	0,388	5,8	0,386	0,35	0,30	0,45	0,35	1,269	1,623
AVERAGE	79	0,487	77	39,5	0,500	32,3	0,475	7,1	0,474	0,49	0,44	0,52	0,43	1,557	1,596
NL West	W	%	W_original	W_Div	%_Div	W_Lea	%_Lea	W_IL	%_IL	SP	RP	OFF	DEF	OVERALL	OPP
Los Angeles Dodgers	90	0,558	88	41,9	0,582	39,0	0,542	9,7	0,538	0,70	0,60	0,55	0,30	1,773	1,582
Arizona Diamondbacks	87	0,536	84	39,7	0,551	39,3	0,524	8,1	0,541	0,70	0,45	0,50	0,40	1,701	1,578
Colorado Rockies	83	0,511	81	37,8	0,525	38,0	0,507	7,2	0,482	0,60	0,55	0,50	0,35	1,637	1,593
San Francisco Giants	72	0,444	72	32,3	0,448	33,1	0,441	6,8	0,452	0,65	0,40	0,30	0,45	1,441	1,614
San Diego Padres	65	0,404	65	29,0	0,402	30,2	0,403	6,4	0,424	0,40	0,45	0,40	0,35	1,318	1,625
AVERAGE	79	0,491	78	36,0	0,500	35,9	0,483	7,7	0,489	0,61	0,49	0,45	0,37	1,574	1,599
AMERICAN LEAGUE	82	0,503	82						0,528	0,54	0,51	0,55	0,43	1,659
NATIONAL LEAGUE	81	0,497	80						0,473	0,55	0,48	0,51	0,44	1,611
MLB OVERALL	81	0,500	81							0,55	0,49	0,52	0,44	1,633	1,633

- Assumptions for my ratings/values:

Manny Ramirez is a Dodger in 2009

- Some conclusions:

The three best teams in all of baseball play in the AL East.

AL Playoff teams: Boston, Cleveland, LA Angels, NY Yankees (WC)

NL Playoff teams: Philadelphia, Chicago Cubs, LA Dodgers, NY Mets (WC)

AL East and NL East are by far the best divisions in each league

So ... that was a lot! What do you think? Any suggestions, ideas, complaints, ...?

Tweet Comment 6 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Standings

Looks like an interesting project. The first thing that stands out is where did you get those weighted constants? Did you just use your intuition and pull them out of the air? Then massage them to get the win totals to come out the way you wanted them to? Could you run a regression test using empirical data on previous seasons to come up with a different set of coefficients? Otherwise, how would your formula hold up to previous seasons of data? You could do the 2008 season assuming you only could use data available before the 2008 season… and then other years too.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 13, 2009 12:51 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

+1

cool methodology, but gonna agree with Xeifrank that your inputs don’t seem very objective.

by ZeppelinDZ on Feb 13, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

Just tried it ...

… for the first time and weighed them as I thought how important they are! I first came up with the constants (before the results) and didn’t rearrange them afterwards! The only thing I rearranged afterwards was the +0,2 constant which should give me the correct win-range (without the 0,2 Boston would have 102 and Pittsburgh 61 “original wins”, which was a bit too far stretched for me!)!

I will look at this season and see how good it will be and go on for the next one! I just haven’t had the time to evaluate how important pitching over offense is, …!

I also tried to make the inputs as objective as I could, which leads me to an interesting question: Can you guess from my inputs which teams I like and which not? Maybe helps me realize whether I was objective or not!?

by BurGi on Feb 13, 2009 3:11 PM EST reply actions

interesting

I agree with the previous posts that it would be interesting to do a regression with previous data to see how close results from this compare with results from actual seasons. I really like the idea though! Looking through the standings, nothing jumps out at me too horribly, which could be a sign that something’s wrong since there’s always one team that’s going to surprise people (either really good or really bad), and it would be interesting to see if there’s some kind of correlation. Good post, though! And I agree that the 3 best teams in baseball are in the AL East.

by rmarx01 on Feb 20, 2009 2:03 PM EST reply actions

injuries

you could have something in there pertaining to chance of injury, i.e. 110 chance AJ Burnett goes on the DL, or 108% chance CCs arm falls off after the Yanks pitch him daily for a month and a half to keep up with the rest of the division.

by rmarx01 on Feb 20, 2009 2:05 PM EST up reply actions