FanPost

2009 Projected Standings

The last 3 days I've worked on a formula to project the standings of 2009 and now I have my results!

  - What have I done?

1. I've given the teams values (the higher the better) for how strong I see them in 4 areas (Starting Pitching, Relief Pitching, Offense, Defense) ... using mostly stats from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and combining it with my own intuition/opinion on player performances in 2009!

2. I've weighed these values [1,25*(2/3 * SP + 1/3 * RP) + 1,1 * OFF + 0,45 * DEF + 0,2] and got "team values" or "team strength"!

3. I've looked up the schedules and noted how often every team plays against every team!

4. Then I calculated my projected wins in the following way (example: Rays against AL East):

   - "average_al_east_strength" = [Games against Yankees * "yankees_strength" + games against Boston * "red_sox_strength" + ...] / Games against AL East teams overall

   - "rays_projected_wins_division" = (Games against AL East teams)/2 + (Games against AL East teams)/2 * ["rays_strength" / "average_al_east_strength" - 1]

5. I summed up the projected wins in the division, in IL - play and in games against the other divisions in the league and had my results:

  - Agenda:

W ... projected wins

% ... projected winning percentage

W_original ... projected wins just according to "team strength" (omitting the opponents according to schedule)

W_Div ... projected wins in division

%_Div ... projected winning percentage in division

W_Lea ... projected wins against the other 2 divisions in the same league

%_Lea ... projected winning percentage against the other 2 divisions in the same league

W_IL ... projected wins in interleague play

%_Div ... projected winning percentage in interleague play

SP ... value for starting pitching (strength of the SP)

RP ... value for relief pitching (strength of the BP)

OFF ... value for offense (offensive strength)

DEF ... value for defense (defensive strength)

OVERALL ... Overall "team strength" index

OPP ... Average opponent team strength

  - Projected Standings:

AL East W % W_original W_Div %_Div W_Lea %_Lea W_IL %_IL SP RP OFF DEF OVERALL OPP
Boston Red Sox 98 0,603 100 41,2 0,573 45,8 0,636 10,9 0,605 0,70 0,70 0,65 0,50 2,015 1,676
New York Yankees 97 0,600 99 40,9 0,568 45,7 0,635 10,7 0,596 0,75 0,60 0,70 0,35 2,003 1,676
Tampa Bay Rays 97 0,598 99 40,5 0,563 45,8 0,636 10,8 0,601 0,70 0,55 0,60 0,70 1,988 1,668
Toronto Blue Jays 76 0,472 80 31,1 0,432 36,7 0,510 8,8 0,486 0,50 0,65 0,45 0,50 1,608 1,717
Baltimore Orioles 68 0,420 71 27,2 0,378 32,9 0,458 8,1 0,447 0,30 0,30 0,60 0,45 1,438 1,728
AVERAGE 87 0,539 90 36,0 0,500 41,4 0,575 9,8 0,547 0,59 0,56 0,60 0,50 1,810 1,693
AL Central W % W_original W_Div %_Div W_Lea %_Lea W_IL %_IL SP RP OFF DEF OVERALL OPP
Cleveland Indians 87 0,537 88 39,0 0,541 37,8 0,524 10,4 0,579 0,55 0,60 0,60 0,45 1,771 1,615
Minnesota Twins 81 0,501 81 36,4 0,505 35,2 0,488 9,8 0,542 0,60 0,45 0,53 0,35 1,628 1,618
Chicago White Sox 79 0,490 80 36,3 0,504 34,3 0,476 9,0 0,499 0,50 0,60 0,55 0,30 1,607 1,642
Detroit Tigers 77 0,475 76 34,8 0,484 33,2 0,461 9,1 0,506 0,45 0,40 0,60 0,30 1,537 1,631
Kansas City Royals 72 0,446 71 33,3 0,463 30,4 0,423 8,7 0,482 0,55 0,40 0,40 0,38 1,436 1,652
AVERAGE 79 0,490 79 36,0 0,500 34,2 0,474 9,4 0,522 0,53 0,49 0,54 0,36 1,596 1,632
AL West W % W_original W_Div %_Div W_Lea %_Lea W_IL %_IL SP RP OFF DEF OVERALL OPP
Los Angeles Angels 91 0,564 89 34,9 0,613 46,3 0,532 10,4 0,575 0,65 0,70 0,55 0,35 1,796 1,601
Oakland Athletics 77 0,476 77 28,7 0,503 39,3 0,452 9,3 0,516 0,50 0,60 0,40 0,50 1,554 1,640
Texas Rangers 73 0,452 73 26,9 0,373 37,6 0,433 8,9 0,496 0,30 0,30 0,70 0,30 1,480 1,642
Seattle Mariners 67 0,414 68 24,1 0,335 34,9 0,402 8,2 0,458 0,55 0,30 0,30 0,55 1,361 1,647
AVERAGE 77 0,477 77 28,5 0,500 39,5 0,455 9,2 0,511 0,50 0,48 0,49 0,44 1,548 1,632
NL East W % W_original W_Div %_Div W_Lea %_Lea W_IL %_IL SP RP OFF DEF OVERALL OPP
Philadelphia Phillies 93 0,575 93 40,6 0,565 43,5 0,604 9,3 0,515 0,58 0,60 0,57 0,72 1,884 1,633
New York Mets 90 0,554 90 39,0 0,541 43,9 0,585 7,0 0,468 0,60 0,65 0,57 0,50 1,823 1,644
Florida Marlins 85 0,527 87 37,1 0,515 40,2 0,558 8,3 0,463 0,60 0,35 0,60 0,55 1,753 1,658
Atlanta Braves 85 0,523 86 36,5 0,507 41,4 0,552 6,9 0,463 0,70 0,50 0,50 0,42 1,731 1,652
Washington Nationals 66 0,406 68 27,4 0,381 31,6 0,440 6,8 0,380 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,45 1,369 1,686
AVERAGE 84 0,517 85 36,0 0,500 40,1 0,548 7,7 0,457 0,56 0,50 0,55 0,53 1,712 1,655
NL Central W % W_original W_Div %_Div W_Lea %_Lea W_IL %_IL SP RP OFF DEF OVERALL OPP
Chicago Cubs 98 0,603 94 50,6 0,632 38,3 0,579 8,4 0,562 0,65 0,55 0,65 0,45 1,888 1,562
Cincinnati Reds 81 0,500 79 41,5 0,518 32,6 0,486 7,1 0,473 0,60 0,55 0,45 0,38 1,595 1,590
St. Louis Cardinals 80 0,491 78 40,3 0,504 32,1 0,479 7,3 0,488 0,50 0,35 0,55 0,45 1,570 1,591
Milwaukee Brewers 77 0,474 76 38,3 0,485 31,8 0,468 6,8 0,454 0,45 0,35 0,55 0,45 1,528 1,604
Houston Astros 75 0,463 74 36,8 0,472 31,2 0,452 7,2 0,479 0,40 0,55 0,45 0,52 1,492 1,603
Pittsburgh Pirates 63 0,389 63 30,3 0,393 27,1 0,388 5,8 0,386 0,35 0,30 0,45 0,35 1,269 1,623
AVERAGE 79 0,487 77 39,5 0,500 32,3 0,475 7,1 0,474 0,49 0,44 0,52 0,43 1,557 1,596
NL West W % W_original W_Div %_Div W_Lea %_Lea W_IL %_IL SP RP OFF DEF OVERALL OPP
Los Angeles Dodgers 90 0,558 88 41,9 0,582 39,0 0,542 9,7 0,538 0,70 0,60 0,55 0,30 1,773 1,582
Arizona Diamondbacks 87 0,536 84 39,7 0,551 39,3 0,524 8,1 0,541 0,70 0,45 0,50 0,40 1,701 1,578
Colorado Rockies 83 0,511 81 37,8 0,525 38,0 0,507 7,2 0,482 0,60 0,55 0,50 0,35 1,637 1,593
San Francisco Giants 72 0,444 72 32,3 0,448 33,1 0,441 6,8 0,452 0,65 0,40 0,30 0,45 1,441 1,614
San Diego Padres 65 0,404 65 29,0 0,402 30,2 0,403 6,4 0,424 0,40 0,45 0,40 0,35 1,318 1,625
AVERAGE 79 0,491 78 36,0 0,500 35,9 0,483 7,7 0,489 0,61 0,49 0,45 0,37 1,574 1,599
AMERICAN LEAGUE 82 0,503 82 0,528 0,54 0,51 0,55 0,43 1,659
NATIONAL LEAGUE 81 0,497 80 0,473 0,55 0,48 0,51 0,44 1,611
MLB OVERALL 81 0,500 81 0,55 0,49 0,52 0,44 1,633 1,633

  - Assumptions for my ratings/values:

Manny Ramirez is a Dodger in 2009

  - Some conclusions:

The three best teams in all of baseball play in the AL East.

AL Playoff teams: Boston, Cleveland, LA Angels, NY Yankees (WC)

NL Playoff teams: Philadelphia, Chicago Cubs, LA Dodgers, NY Mets (WC)

AL East and NL East are by far the best divisions in each league

So ... that was a lot! What do you think? Any suggestions, ideas, complaints, ...?
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