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Around SBN: Knicks Beat Lakers With Familiar Strategy

I'm aggressively trying to fix my sleep cycle, and that means staying up all night.

Anyway, I made a WAR spreadsheet using the best player at every position in 2009 per PECOTA. I used PECOTA for PA, filling in the extra spots (I never went over projected PA) with the second best player at the position. PECOTA also used for EqOBP, EqSLG and EqBRR. CHONE used for defense.

Relievers are anyone projected to get 20%+ time relieving.

This is just for fun, nothing serious. The team is at the 153 win talent level with a 100% chance at winning more than 101 games. And they're worth 482 million dollars. Course, who knows how much they'd destroy beyond that just for having watered down the league.

Roster:

C - Matt Wieters (Joe Mauer)
1B - Albert Pujols (Lance Berkman)
2B - Chase Utley (Kelly Johnson)
3B - David Wright (Chipper Jones)
SS - Hanley Ramirez (Jose Reyes)
LF - Ryan Braun (Nate McLouth)
CF - Carlos Beltran (Nate McLouth)
RF - Grady Sizemore (Nate McLouth)

SP1 - Brandon Webb
SP2 - C.C. Sabathia
SP3 - Johan Santana
SP4 - Tim Lincecum
SP5 - Dan Haren

CL - Mariano Rivera
SU - Francisco Rodriguez
LOOGY - Joe Nathan
MR - Jonathan Papelbon
MR - Joakim Soria
MR - Jonath Broxton

almost 3 years ago Nolan_tiny philkid3 27 comments 0 recs  | 

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I wonder how Pythag would change at this extreme level...

In that run environment, the exponent may change significantly, making the linear assumption of converting run differential to wins not accurate.

And the offense would likely be even better than WAR suggests, because of the non-linear gains from a grossly high OBP.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 12, 2009 10:12 AM EST reply actions  

They would lose a few games

One hot pitcher, not on the team, Greinke or Hamels, and blowup by one of their’s would lead to an easy loss..

Also, that starting pitching staff is just ripe for injuries because of recent over use.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Feb 12, 2009 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Update

I put Ryan Braun’s slugging in wrong. That adds about 3.5 wins from what I first said..

by philkid3 on Feb 12, 2009 10:17 AM EST reply actions  

NL v. AL

More NL than AL players on that list. 6 of 9 position players, 4 of 5 starters. The AL has the better bullpen arms though (4 of 6). Seems that the NL has the better high end talent but the AL has deeper rosters due to their larger average payrolls. That would explain why the AL has the better bullpens. Despite widespread proclamations of AL superiority, both leagues have won 3 WS out of the last 6. I think that this year and next we will see the NL close the gap in Interleague play. I think the AL will always enjoy an advantage in Interleague because the AL teams carry a player to specifically fill the DH role while that money would be a total waste on an NL roster.

by indakind on Feb 12, 2009 11:02 AM EST reply actions  

NL has more teams.

I went through the top 200 players last year, and while the NL dominated the top 10 (7 or 8 out of 10), they had pretty much 53% (as expected) of the best positions at every cutoff through 200.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 12, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions  

The Mets have to be the most top heavy team in baseball.

Have to be.

Would any team realistically (judging what’s actually on the team and in the organization, not just a fictional baseline) be more wounded by losing one player than they would be with one of their guys?

I mean, I trust the Cardinals to replace Pujols with a replacement level guy more than I do the Mets.

by philkid3 on Feb 12, 2009 12:36 PM EST reply actions  

Boo, K-rod second.

He’s among the least valuable relievers on that team.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Feb 12, 2009 1:59 PM EST reply actions  

Matt Wieters

Expectations for this kid are just silly. He’s 22, hasn’t seen a pitch above AA, and yet he’s already the best catcher in the majors?

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Feb 12, 2009 1:59 PM EST reply actions  

You cannot hope to comprehend.

You can only be amazed and then wonder what game he’s playing when he (seemingly, to the untrained eye) doesn’t live up to the hype.

by philkid3 on Feb 12, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't have the PECOTA numbers

But Kelly Johnson was just a tad above average last year. According to wOBA and UZR for ’07 and ’08…

Johnson – 3.0, 2.3
Kinsler – 1.7, 4.5
Pedrioa – 3.8, 6.6

Not sure how he could project better than those two. Also, and I do realize that this was just for fun, using a second basemen to play second is probably the wrong move. Hanley Ramirez would probably be the best backup to Utley.

by lookatthosetwins on Feb 17, 2009 7:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Dream Team Wins

I think the best way to project team wins from this “dream team” would be to use a simulator as opposed to Win Values. Question would then be, what kind of schedule would you put em up against? The Yankees would take a sizeable hit losing Sabathia and Rivera. The Mets would probably take the biggest hit with Wright, Beltran and Santana all getting removed from their roster. The Red Sox and Rays would probably be their biggest competition, with the BoSox only losing their closer and the Rays losing no players. Cubs still might be pretty tough. Interesting excercise you did.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 12, 2009 2:28 PM EST reply actions  

If you take their expected salaries for 09

This team’s payroll would be around 173.905 million.

The hitters would account for 81.62 million
The starting pitchers would account for 48.46 million
The bullpen would account for 43.825

- I wasn’t sure on Wieters or Lincecum so I put 400,000 for Wieters and 460,000 for Lincecum.
- Kelly Johnson and Nate McClouth are arbitration eligble so I took the average of what the Braves and Pirates are offering and what Johnson and McClouth are asking for

by Gina on Feb 12, 2009 6:29 PM EST reply actions  

See.

For the Yankees money, they should be winning at LEAST 150 games. Inexcusible.

by philkid3 on Feb 12, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly

:-)

I’ve always wondered how good a “dream team” would be. Great post.

by Brendan Scolari on Feb 13, 2009 3:19 AM EST up reply actions  

It would be fun for a bunch of people to make these,

and see who’s WAR actually was the best at the end of the season. I’m sure everyone’s would be about the same as your list, although I doubt Wieters would be starting for too many people. Anyway, good post… makes me want to go play some video games.

by lookatthosetwins on Feb 17, 2009 7:40 PM EST reply actions  

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