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Diamondbacks Set to Sign Kelly Johnson

Earlier this month, the Atlanta Braves cut Kelly Johnson loose after months of trying to move their former starting second basemen. The Braves decided to hand the job to Martin Prado, and it's hard to argue with the decision. Prado had a breakout season in 2009 hitting .307/.358/.464 in over 500 plate appearances. His wOBA over the past two seasons is over .360 in a combined 750+ PA's. Defensively, he is slighly below average to average. However, the most important factor was his price tag. Prado is not yet arbitration eligible, while Johnson was due a raise on his $2.8 million dollar salary despite a down season.

It's true, Johnson, 27, had a bad season in 2009 at the dish. However,he was above average in the two years prior. In the two seasons before 2009, he hit .282/.362/.451 with an average wOBA around .350. Just look around the league, a .350 wOBA at second base would put you among the better players at the position. In 2009, Johnson's slash line dipped to .224/.303/.389. That .350 wOBA bottomed out at .306. Add in the emergence of Prado and Johnson was sent out to pasture.

*Warning* cliche about one man's trash being another one's treasure.

Star-divide

According to multiple outlets, Josh Byrnes is set to pick up Frank Wren's trash, and is likely to be the benefactor of Johnson's treasures in 2010. A near .100 point drop in BABIP year over year would definitely a factor in the sharp drop in production. While his .344 BABIP in 2008 was a bit high, his .249 BABIP in 2009 was a bit low. His LD% also dropped nearly 4% less than normal and his fly balls rose to an all time high. In addition to the statistical issues, a wrist injury that cost him some time, but should be healed up by now.

Despite the dip in overall production, you could argue that Johnson actually showed some improvement as a hitter. His walk rate improved from 2008, and his strikeout rate fell to a career low 17.8%. His ISO remained relatively static at .165.

Johnson broke into the big leagues as a left fielder, but has not played the position since 2005. He now makes his home at second base and would continue to do so in Arizona. The bad news is he's not exactly a great fielder. Looking at the three years he has spent at the position, his career UZR/150 is -7.4. That looks a lot worse without a .775 OPS accompanying it.

Overall, the reward should outweigh the risk in this situation. I'm not sure Johnson is the .363 wOBA/3 WAR player we saw in 2007, but I'm pretty sure he is better than the .306 wOBA/0.7 WAR we saw last year. Defense is an issue, but he should provide enough punch at the plate to offset some of the damage. At a reported salary slightly north of $2 million dollars, he will roughly make the same as Alex Cora, who is Alex Cora.

A 0.5 WAR season would cover the "value" portion of the contract. If Johnson can settled in the 1.5-2 WAR range, the D-Backs will be receiving a bargain. If he repeats his 2009 performance, then the deal is a wash. There is also the added bonus of retaining Johnson's rights for an additional season as he will be under team control through 2011.

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I'm very upset

the Cards didn’t seem to get involved w/ Johnson at all. Perhaps it’s that they are so optimistic about signing Holliday that they felt, or Johnson felt, that he wouldn’t get enough playing time to justify the contract. But Johnson should easily be worth this $2 M and more. The Cards could’ve offered him some time in RF, LF, maybe CF, 2B, and 3B and given him 400-450 PAs in a super-sub role. His offense would’ve justified the contract. The D-backs will be very pleased w/ this contract.

by chuckb on Dec 30, 2009 8:15 AM EST reply actions  

It's OK to use defensive evaluation systems other than UZR, you know....

+/- thinks he’s about average (0, -1, -2 the past 3 years at 2B), as do scouts, as do most intelligent Braves fans that have watched him every day for the past three years.

He makes too many errors and his natural position is SS, but he has above-average range and turns a nice double play.

In this case, I think +/- is closer to the truth than UZR.

Apart from defense, Kelly Johnson is the perfect example of how not to treat a top prospect. He played mostly SS and 3B for most of his minor league career. Then the Braves decided they needed a new LF because Raul Mondesi wasn’t exactly cutting it. So of course he plays a season in left then blows his elbow out and has to have Tommy John surgery. Then after his rehab they decided he’s best suited for 2B, where he basically learned on the fly for a few years. He hit pretty much every spot in the line-up throughout his tenure, etc..

Good pick-up for the D-Backs. I think they’ll be extremely happy with him.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Dec 30, 2009 10:15 AM EST reply actions  

44 fans didn't like his defense in 2009 as per Tango's Fans Scouting Report

http://tangotiger.net/scout/index6.php?prim_fld_cd=4

Eyeballing it, he was 20th percentile.

+/- and PMR are always worth discussing, too. PMR’s not out yet and +/- is behind the BJO pay well.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 30, 2009 11:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Also looking at the components of UZR

In 09, he rated well in the range and dp categories, but struggled with errors. However, over the three year spectrum his range according to UZR has been lackluster. I couldn’t find any recent scouting reports on him otherwise I would’ve included it.

www.draysbay.com, www.beyondtheboxscore.com, Twitter @trancel

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 30, 2009 11:45 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

It’s debatable, certainly, but my opinion is that UZR (and the fans, whose perception of his defense I believe is skewed by the frustration he causes with his errors and the visibility thereof) has this one wrong WRT his range.

An aside, if either of you want to know +/- numbers for someone, I’d be more than happy to look ’em up for you.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Dec 30, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions  

He's been above average by TotalZone every season

to the tune of being worth 0.5 and 1.0 WAR per 600 PA

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Dec 30, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

was supposed to say "between 0.5 and 1.0 WAR"

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Dec 30, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

+1 on the overall message

I think KJ is an average defensive 2B with above average offensive capabilities, making him a very good 2B. He had a down year and has battled injuries but the Braves have definitely mishandled him from the beginning. I can’t fault the Braves for turning the starting job over to Prado last year but I think they made a miscalculation in letting KJ go for nothing. I still like KJ more than Prado long term but we will see what happens.

by jfish26101 on Dec 30, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

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