2010 Catcher Block Percentage Projections


Now that we finally have 3 years of reliable Pitch F/X data, I can attempt something I've wanted to do since I first figured Catcher Block Percentage back in 2008 - projections for the next season.

I'm using a basic Marcel approach to estimate how many runs a given catcher will save in 2010 based on his performance in 2007-2009.  I'm not going to outline all the details here, but if anyone is interested, I can add them later.

After the jump we'll get into the full set of results, but I'll share some observations first.

Jason Varitek is projected to 5.6 runs per 120 games, by far the best in the league.  That can do a lot to compensate for an offensive decline.  His counterpart on the Red Sox last season, George Kotteras projects to be the worst, but that's mainly because he was Tim Wakefield's personal catcher.

Jason Kendall is indeed a 6 run improvement over Miguel Olivo in a full season.  Depending on Olivo returning to his offensive form, maybe the tradeoff wasn't so bad for the Royals.

The Yankees have a lot of trouble blocking pitches, and it's not all A.J. Burnett's fault.  Both Jorge Posada and Jose Molina struggled before Burnett joined the team.

Kurt Suzuki is quietly turning into quite a player.  Besides being a roughly average offensive player at a premium defensive position, he appears to be a very strong defender. Sure most of his value is by being a catcher, but when teams are running Pudge Rodriguez and Omir Santos out there on a regular basis, Suzuki is quite valuable.

Fact: Matt Wieters doesn't block pitches.  They are drawn to his glove through the power of awesomeness.

Here's the full list for your projecting pleasure. It includes all players with at least 50 opportunities in 2009. 

Click on the table headers to sort.

Catcher 2010 Est Opps 2010 BAA 2010 RAA 2010 RAA/120
Jason Varitek 357 21.61 5.83 5.59
Humberto Quintero 206 9.33 2.52 4.18
Kurt Suzuki 427 18.93 5.11 4.1
Carlos Ruiz 277 11.86 3.2 3.96
Gregg Zaun 275 11.7 3.16 3.93
Jeff Mathis 344 14.39 3.89 3.87
Brad Ausmus 172 7.16 1.93 3.85
Yadier Molina 439 18.23 4.92 3.84
Mike Redmond 129 5.15 1.39 3.69
Lou Marson 86 2.59 0.7 2.78
Chris Coste 165 4.74 1.28 2.66
Chad Moeller 133 3.43 0.93 2.38
Mike Rivera 127 2.88 0.78 2.1
Jason Kendall 500 11.2 3.02 2.07
Michel Hernandez 108 2.28 0.62 1.95
Jason LaRue 158 3.24 0.87 1.89
Wil Nieves 236 4.44 1.2 1.74
Koyie Hill 167 2.96 0.8 1.64
Raul Chavez 188 3.04 0.82 1.49
Matt Wieters 169 2.71 0.73 1.48
Wyatt Toregas 86 1.26 0.34 1.36
Craig Tatum 85 1.09 0.29 1.19
Corky Miller 105 0.78 0.21 0.69
Taylor Teagarden 144 1.01 0.27 0.65
Ramon Hernandez 240 1.5 0.41 0.58
Robinzon Diaz 134 0.57 0.15 0.39
Russell Martin 407 1.59 0.43 0.36
Omir Santos 142 0.47 0.13 0.3
Dioner Navarro 293 0.91 0.24 0.29
Alex Avila 89 0.27 0.07 0.28
Francisco Cervelli 89 0.27 0.07 0.28
Eliezer Alfonzo 97 0.28 0.08 0.26
Gerald Laird 314 0.8 0.21 0.23
Victor Martinez 201 0.43 0.11 0.2
Ronny Paulino 167 0.11 0.03 0.06
Ryan Doumit 293 0.03 0.01 0.01
Henry Blanco 160 -0.4 -0.11 -0.23
Landon Powell 101 -0.29 -0.08 -0.27
Mike Napoli 306 -0.97 -0.26 -0.29
Jason Jaramillo 137 -0.6 -0.16 -0.4
Geovany Soto 301 -1.58 -0.43 -0.49
Rod Barajas 314 -1.7 -0.46 -0.5
Yorvit Torrealba 201 -1.17 -0.32 -0.54
John Buck 232 -1.36 -0.37 -0.54
Kenji Johjima 227 -1.56 -0.42 -0.63
Dave Ross 148 -1.03 -0.28 -0.64
Ryan Hanigan 169 -1.18 -0.32 -0.64
Chris Iannetta 243 -2 -0.54 -0.76
Brian Schneider 199 -1.77 -0.48 -0.82
Joe Mauer 280 -2.55 -0.69 -0.84
Nick Hundley 210 -2.39 -0.65 -1.05
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 215 -3.14 -0.85 -1.35
Brian McCann 283 -4.28 -1.16 -1.4
John Baker 227 -3.84 -1.04 -1.56
Jesus Flores 186 -3.19 -0.86 -1.59
Josh Bard 202 -3.55 -0.96 -1.62
Eli Whiteside 114 -2.31 -0.62 -1.87
Bengie Molina 350 -7.44 -2.01 -1.96
Chris Snyder 236 -6.02 -1.63 -2.36
Jose Morales 93 -2.55 -0.69 -2.53
Paul Bako 188 -5.43 -1.47 -2.67
Brayan Pena 97 -2.87 -0.78 -2.73
Ramon Castro 114 -3.66 -0.99 -2.97
Ivan Rodriguez 263 -9.83 -2.65 -3.45
Kelly Shoppach 241 -9.1 -2.46 -3.49
A.J. Pierzynski 294 -11.75 -3.17 -3.69
Rob Johnson 131 -5.45 -1.47 -3.84
Miguel Olivo 291 -12.67 -3.42 -4.02
Jorge Posada 217 -9.47 -2.56 -4.03
Jose Molina 168 -7.91 -2.14 -4.35
Miguel Montero 248 -12.53 -3.38 -4.67
George Kottaras 96 -6.77 -1.83 -6.51
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