2010 Catcher Block Percentage Projections

by Dan Turkenkopf on Dec 28, 2009 8:00 AM EST in Positional Reviews

Now that we finally have 3 years of reliable Pitch F/X data, I can attempt something I've wanted to do since I first figured Catcher Block Percentage back in 2008 - projections for the next season.

I'm using a basic Marcel approach to estimate how many runs a given catcher will save in 2010 based on his performance in 2007-2009. I'm not going to outline all the details here, but if anyone is interested, I can add them later.

After the jump we'll get into the full set of results, but I'll share some observations first.

Jason Varitek is projected to 5.6 runs per 120 games, by far the best in the league. That can do a lot to compensate for an offensive decline. His counterpart on the Red Sox last season, George Kotteras projects to be the worst, but that's mainly because he was Tim Wakefield's personal catcher.

Jason Kendall is indeed a 6 run improvement over Miguel Olivo in a full season. Depending on Olivo returning to his offensive form, maybe the tradeoff wasn't so bad for the Royals.

The Yankees have a lot of trouble blocking pitches, and it's not all A.J. Burnett's fault. Both Jorge Posada and Jose Molina struggled before Burnett joined the team.

Kurt Suzuki is quietly turning into quite a player. Besides being a roughly average offensive player at a premium defensive position, he appears to be a very strong defender. Sure most of his value is by being a catcher, but when teams are running Pudge Rodriguez and Omir Santos out there on a regular basis, Suzuki is quite valuable.

Fact: Matt Wieters doesn't block pitches. They are drawn to his glove through the power of awesomeness.

Here's the full list for your projecting pleasure. It includes all players with at least 50 opportunities in 2009.

Click on the table headers to sort.

Catcher	2010 Est Opps	2010 BAA	2010 RAA	2010 RAA/120
Jason Varitek	357	21.61	5.83	5.59
Humberto Quintero	206	9.33	2.52	4.18
Kurt Suzuki	427	18.93	5.11	4.1
Carlos Ruiz	277	11.86	3.2	3.96
Gregg Zaun	275	11.7	3.16	3.93
Jeff Mathis	344	14.39	3.89	3.87
Brad Ausmus	172	7.16	1.93	3.85
Yadier Molina	439	18.23	4.92	3.84
Mike Redmond	129	5.15	1.39	3.69
Lou Marson	86	2.59	0.7	2.78
Chris Coste	165	4.74	1.28	2.66
Chad Moeller	133	3.43	0.93	2.38
Mike Rivera	127	2.88	0.78	2.1
Jason Kendall	500	11.2	3.02	2.07
Michel Hernandez	108	2.28	0.62	1.95
Jason LaRue	158	3.24	0.87	1.89
Wil Nieves	236	4.44	1.2	1.74
Koyie Hill	167	2.96	0.8	1.64
Raul Chavez	188	3.04	0.82	1.49
Matt Wieters	169	2.71	0.73	1.48
Wyatt Toregas	86	1.26	0.34	1.36
Craig Tatum	85	1.09	0.29	1.19
Corky Miller	105	0.78	0.21	0.69
Taylor Teagarden	144	1.01	0.27	0.65
Ramon Hernandez	240	1.5	0.41	0.58
Robinzon Diaz	134	0.57	0.15	0.39
Russell Martin	407	1.59	0.43	0.36
Omir Santos	142	0.47	0.13	0.3
Dioner Navarro	293	0.91	0.24	0.29
Alex Avila	89	0.27	0.07	0.28
Francisco Cervelli	89	0.27	0.07	0.28
Eliezer Alfonzo	97	0.28	0.08	0.26
Gerald Laird	314	0.8	0.21	0.23
Victor Martinez	201	0.43	0.11	0.2
Ronny Paulino	167	0.11	0.03	0.06
Ryan Doumit	293	0.03	0.01	0.01
Henry Blanco	160	-0.4	-0.11	-0.23
Landon Powell	101	-0.29	-0.08	-0.27
Mike Napoli	306	-0.97	-0.26	-0.29
Jason Jaramillo	137	-0.6	-0.16	-0.4
Geovany Soto	301	-1.58	-0.43	-0.49
Rod Barajas	314	-1.7	-0.46	-0.5
Yorvit Torrealba	201	-1.17	-0.32	-0.54
John Buck	232	-1.36	-0.37	-0.54
Kenji Johjima	227	-1.56	-0.42	-0.63
Dave Ross	148	-1.03	-0.28	-0.64
Ryan Hanigan	169	-1.18	-0.32	-0.64
Chris Iannetta	243	-2	-0.54	-0.76
Brian Schneider	199	-1.77	-0.48	-0.82
Joe Mauer	280	-2.55	-0.69	-0.84
Nick Hundley	210	-2.39	-0.65	-1.05
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	215	-3.14	-0.85	-1.35
Brian McCann	283	-4.28	-1.16	-1.4
John Baker	227	-3.84	-1.04	-1.56
Jesus Flores	186	-3.19	-0.86	-1.59
Josh Bard	202	-3.55	-0.96	-1.62
Eli Whiteside	114	-2.31	-0.62	-1.87
Bengie Molina	350	-7.44	-2.01	-1.96
Chris Snyder	236	-6.02	-1.63	-2.36
Jose Morales	93	-2.55	-0.69	-2.53
Paul Bako	188	-5.43	-1.47	-2.67
Brayan Pena	97	-2.87	-0.78	-2.73
Ramon Castro	114	-3.66	-0.99	-2.97
Ivan Rodriguez	263	-9.83	-2.65	-3.45
Kelly Shoppach	241	-9.1	-2.46	-3.49
A.J. Pierzynski	294	-11.75	-3.17	-3.69
Rob Johnson	131	-5.45	-1.47	-3.84
Miguel Olivo	291	-12.67	-3.42	-4.02
Jorge Posada	217	-9.47	-2.56	-4.03
Jose Molina	168	-7.91	-2.14	-4.35
Miguel Montero	248	-12.53	-3.38	-4.67
George Kottaras	96	-6.77	-1.83	-6.51

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Comments

Jason Varitek is projected to 5.6 runs per 120 games, by far the best in the league. That can do a lot to compensate for an offensive decline.

Not when he is giving up more than 5.6 runs by his lack of ability to stop runners from stealing 2nd, at which he is the worst in the league. Anyway, it is probably a moot point because Varitek is unlikely to come close to catching 120 games next year.

by pjensen on Dec 28, 2009 11:28 AM EST reply actions

suzuki

am open to learning some of the simpler concepts of sabermetrics from you …. certainly enjoy reading the posts on your site .
am not willing to budge on my love for the A ’s (since ’59) …. beane not withstanding .

re : suzuki
this kid is pretty fantastic behind the plate , especially considering that his battery-mates are , for the most part , lacking major league experience .
you just have to watch this kid to appreciate how good he really is .
my impression is that he performed more athletically in 2008 than he did in 2009 .
can your numbers/statistics confirm or dispel my assumption/observations ??
would appreciate seeing the comparison .

thanking you , in advance .
big o

by big o on Dec 31, 2009 9:56 PM EST reply actions