Jason Marquis Cashes In With Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals continued their battle against the Baltimore Orioles for this offseasons' title of mediocre team overpaying for talent. In their latest attempt for the crown, the Nationals signed Jason Marquis to a two-year deal worth $15 million or just slightly under what they paid for uber-prospect Stephen Strasburg.
After seasons of working with Dave Duncan and Bob Apodaca, Marquis has become a predominately ground ball pitcher, culminating in a career best 55.6% ground ball rate in 2009. That was good enough for third highest among qualified Major League starters. He also pitched a career high 216 innings and earned his best WAR mark, by far, at 3.8 His 15 wins also tied a personal best and is a likely reason behind his new contract.
Other than his ability to get ground balls with the best of them, Marquis is pretty average. His 2009 ERA of 4.04 was nothing special and that is backed by his 4.10 FIP. His BABIP was inline with career norms as was his K/BB ratio. He doesn't generate many swings and misses with his fastball, although his slider is pretty nifty at doing that. Pitching with Coors Field as his home ballpark, Marquis enjoyed a career low 0.63 HR/9. His HR/FB rate was 4% lower than his career level, but given his ground ball abilities that's not a shock.
Marquis is more of a 2-2.5 WAR pitcher than a 3.8 WAR pitcher. That means he should provide marginal value at $7.5 annually, but much like the Orioles with Mike Gonzalez and Garrett Atkins, for the Nationals you must ask...why? Maybe Marquis pitches really well early on, and a contending team is willing to give up something for him at the trade deadline. Otherwise, the Nationals just took another unnecessary, high priced step towards win #70.
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Win/Revenue curve
Consistently losing depresses a teams win/revenue curve over the long haul. It can then be difficult to capitalize on winning when a team’s fan base is apathetic from years and years of losing. Avoiding another soul sucking 100 loss season is a reasonable goal for a front office. I don’t have any issues with the Orioles or Nationals adding players on short contracts to try and be respectable.
Why? It's pretty obvious.
Look no further than the 2008 Washington Nationals. They did just as you’re advocating, and signed affordable SPs for around league minimum salaries. Julian Tavarez, Kip Wells and Daniel Cabrera. Together they were paid $3.6mil- very affordable for three veteran starters. How did that work out? They were worth a combined -$800,000 (note the negative sign), and none of them finished the year with the team.
To fill the void left by those old scraps, the Nationals were forced to put someone on the mound. In this case, Jordan Zimmermann and Craig Stammen both suffered season ending injuries after pitching through pain in their arm. The Marquis signing was made to take 200 innings of responsibility off their 5 or so other young arms, who will be given a shot this year.
One of the things about Marquis
Aside from the fact that his teams always seem to make the playoffs, is that he’s also been on pretty good defensive teams for his whole career, especially the last few years, spending his time on the Rockies, Cubs, and Cardinals. All three were very good defensively during the time they employed Marquis. Going by BP’s PADE, in the last six seasons, he’s been on teams ranked no lower than 9th in MLB, and in three of those years he was either on the club with the first, second, or third highest PADE’s in the game. It makes his ability to keep some distance between his ERA and DIPS rates like FIP and tRA throughout his career look less like a repeatable skill than the consistency with which he does it suggests. 2009 really looks like the first year of his career he was an above average pitcher, thanks to the career best GB%, but I think 2-2.5 WAR is still pretty generous.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Dec 24, 2009 4:17 PM EST reply actions

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