Which statistics relate to Line Drives?
In an effort to track down what makes a player hit for a better BABIP, I decided to run a correlation on a large number of statistics, as they pertain to LD%. I received the following results:
Fastball%: .23
Contact%: .23
BB/K .19
wFastball/100: .17
HR: .11
Hits: .10
wIFFB -.45
FlyBall%: -.28
wHR/FB -.20
SL: -.20
ISO: -.15
O-Swing%: -.14,
K -.14
CT: -.13
IFH: -.12
CB: -.11
Now some observations about the results, that many of which are probably obvious to a lot of people, but which I found interesting.
First off, it seems that there is a relationship between the pitches you are thrown, and your LD%. If you're thrown more fastballs, you'll hit more line drives, while if you're thrown more sliders, curve's, and cutter's you'll hit less. I found this interesting, because this is another factor that's really not in control of the batter, but ultimately will effect his BABIP.
It also seems there is a negative correlation between Homeruns, and ISO and your Line Drive %. This seems to imply, that if you're swinging for the fences, you're going to hit less line drives. At the same time, your SLG actually does increase, because the added hits that you'll receive from the line drive, will outweigh the extra bases you've lost.
It would appear that higher contact percentage tends to go hand in hand with higher line drive numbers as well. Along with this, swinging at less outside pitches, tends to yield more line drives. So pitch selection plays a role, in your ability to hit line drives as well.
I've found that IFFB% also has a very high relationship to your BABIP. And at the same time, your IFFB% also has a strong relationship with your LD% as well. This is to say, that hitting line drives, and hitting less infield fly balls go hand in hand (and together, makeup the largest part of your BABIP).
I just figured I would share, and see if it sparked any interesting discussion. Up next: I'm going to do a correlation with IFFB% itself.
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The pitches you are thrown are at least partially determined by the batter
A possible scenario for what we are seeing:
Home run hitters hit more fly balls and less line drives in general
Pitchers are less likely to give these guys fastballs to hit
therefore, more fastballs thrown to high ld% hitters.
The high contact percentage could be something similar…I don’t know if hr hitters generally have lower contact percentages or not, but it would be interesting to look at.
If you run a multivariate regression, with both ISO and fb%, which is more relevant?
Same with ISO and contact %?
by lookatthosetwins on Dec 2, 2009 7:00 PM EST reply actions

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