Yankees Upgrade DH, Replace Matsui with Johnson

by Satchel Price on Dec 18, 2009 10:43 AM EST

Yesterday, the Yankees came to an agreement on a one-year deal with an injury-prone position player turned designated hitter. No, they didn't steal Hideki Matsui Dodgers-Furcal style. Rather, they added another offensive force to their lineup in the form of OBP machine Nick Johnson, coming to an agreement to bring the former Yankee prospect back to the Bronx on for a reported $5.5M.

While the move would initially seem to be a downgrade, given that Matsui showed a surge of power last season, it appears that the Yankees have further fortified an already terrifying lineup by adding one of the best on-base guys of the past decade, a guy with a career OBP of .402. Johnson, 31, was traded to the Expos in the deal that sent Javier Vazquez to New York before the 2004 season, and became one of the best first baseman in the game after the team moved to Washington for the 2005 season. Considering his offensive upside, youth, and cheaper price tag, it appears that the Yankees may have actually have been better off when Matsui signed with Los Angeles.

Injury questions have always been the issue with Johnson, but during the 2005 and 2006 seasons he managed to stay healthy for a total of 278 games, posting 1175 plate appearances. He posted wRC+ marks of 139 and 152, respectively, while playing plus defense at first base. The marks made him a star-level player, as he posted WARs of 4.6 in 2005 and 5.3 in 2006.

In 2007, the injury bug returned and he missed the entire 2007 season while playing only 38 games in 2008. But in 2009 he returned to post 574 plate appearances, posting a .426 OBP and a 130 wRC+. His power showed a major dip, his ISO dropped from .230 in 2006 to .114 in 2009, but that was likely partially a function of a low 6.2% HR/FB. He showed his regular patience at the plate, walking in nearly 18% of his plate appearances. UZR indicates that he's not quite the defender he once was, and the Fan's Scouting Reports seem to agree.

This makes for a good situation in New York, where Johnson should be able to stay healthier as he won't have to play the field, and the Yankees just landed another impact bat for a lineup that's loaded with them. Johnson is likely to see a slight increase in his power production next season (the new Yankee Staidium certainly shouldn't hurt) as he gets fully healthy and his numbers regress back to the mean, making him one of the better hitters in the game, and a solidly above average designated hitter if he can stay healthy.

While Matsui's power surge from 2009 was shocking not a function of the new Yankee Stadium (.462 SLG at home, .567 away), he seems likely for some regression as his 17.0% HR/FB ratio was unusually high, and hitters generally don't show major increases in power when they're 35, at least not since the end of the supposed Steroid Era.

Considering that Johnson is likely to be the better hitter next season, his projections are superior than Matsui's essentially across the board, it appears that the Yankees have made another great move, landing another high-upside hitter for just $5.5M, less than Matsui has reportedly agreed to go to the Angels for. It's the kind of financial hit that the Yankees can take if he gets hurt, and realistically if he's not playing the field then it wouldn't be surprising to see him get a similar number of plate appearances as last season.

With the additions that the Yankees have made this offseason, I'm not sure if there's a better offense in baseball. I wonder how pitchers feel about going against a lineup of Granderson, Jeter, Teixeira, Rodriguez, Cano, Posada, Johnson, Swisher and Cabrera/Gardner.

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Comments

assuming

that he doesn’t break something between now and most of the season. this seems like a good move. and another one of those solid acquistion of somewhat underrated / good but not super star players over the last couple of years.

of course, the danger with Johnson is that he’s really a slow healer, Matsui also suffered a catastrophic injury during this 5 year span , is 4 years older, and was barely limping around last couple of years. and yet the still played 100 more games than NJ in this 5 year span.

I guess the yankee lineup essentially swapped Damon / matsui for Granderson / Johnson, which makes sense on a ton of levels (they cost half as much, combines to be 10 years younger , and seems like equal if not better players going foward) .

The thing is though, it seems that age would at some point catch up to Jorge Posada / Derek Jeter. the former especially is always more scary.

They probably could do with this lineup. but adding at least one more insurance pitcher would help.

by RollingWave on Dec 18, 2009 11:07 AM EST reply actions

Personally, I don’t see how the Yankees didn’t upgrade this offseason.

With Granderson and Johnson, they got younger, cheaper, and more talented, and frankly, that’s a lineup that may be able to boast eight star or near-star level hitters.

It’s a good thing that the other teams in the AL East have been loading up too (Soriano to TB, Gonzalez/Atkins to BAL, Lackey/Cameron to BOS), because the Yankees appear to be setting themselves up for a pretty good run.

by Satchel Price on Dec 18, 2009 11:09 AM EST reply actions

Interesting read

But I can help but think that this is an example of sabermetrics going a bit over the top. Sabermetrics obviously have their uses. But one simply cannot tell me that the Yankees are actually in a “better” position with their DH situation now, than they were a few months ago, when Matsui was mashing his way towards a World Series MVP award.

Obviously the data that went into that argument is valid. But that doesn’t mean that I, or anyone else, has to necessarily believe it to be the absolute truth.

I like Nick Johnson, I hope he has a great year next year back where he belongs, in the Bronx, but I would be hard pressed to say I prefer this to having Deki doing the DH honors with the Yankees next year.

by FloridaownsFSU on Dec 18, 2009 10:32 PM EST reply actions

Johnson is brittle

Neither the National or the Marlins – both teams employed Johnson last season – wanted anything to do with him any longer. This guy can hit but might break down in June while running to first base. Check out his injury history. He is overweight and out of condition and prone to injury. Another older player bought by Yankees instead of going with promising youth. They will regret this deal probably sooner than later.

by fastfinger on Dec 19, 2009 3:17 PM EST reply actions

The longest they could possibly regret it is one year

Considering their dearth of hitting prospects in the high minors and the fact that Matsui’s knees are fragile too, I’m not sure this wasn’t the best thing they could have done.

by Tommy Bennett on Dec 19, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions