Did The Orioles Reach On Garrett Atkins?
In addition to Mike Gonzalez, the Orioles have reportedly inked corner infielder, Garrett Atkins, to a one-year deal believed to be in the neighborhood of $4 million dollars. Andy MacPhail is easily one of my favorite GM's after Andrew Freidman, but in a market that has multiple cheaper alternatives, I question the signing of Atkins at $4 million dollars.
It's no secret that Atkins's numbers have declined in each of the last four seasons. It's also not a secret The Rockies have been trying to ship him out of Colorado for quite some time before finally non-tendering him last weekend. After posting a career high wOBA of .410 in 2006, Atkins bottomed out last season and finished with a .291 wOBA. Accompanying that wOBA dip, is a dip in ISO. Once again, after a career high in 2006 of .228, Atkins' ISO was a dismal .116 in 2009. It's true, his HR/FB rate was down around three percent from his normal 10%, but for a player that just recently turned 30, a rapidly declining ISO is not a good sign.
His 2009 BABIP shows there is some regression due for Atkins, but that wouldn't explain all of the power outage. It might produce some more doubles, but hard to see it justifying the major collapse. The good news is Atkins does show a decent batting eye. He will collect a walk nearly 10% of the time while keeping the strikeouts around 15%. Defensively, he is on a rare upward UZR swing for a player headed into his thirties, but a sample size warning; he has played less than 1,000 innings in the field each of the last two seasons.
Much like the Gonzalez deal, the Orioles aren't taking a big risk here; however, is this move really necessary? We know Joshua Bell isn't ready, but I don't see the reason to pay Atkins $4 million dollars to be the stop gap; especially in this market. The going rate on a win in this early market seems to be around $3-3.5 million. Nick Johnson, a likely 2-win player, is about to sign a one-year deal worth around $6 million. For five or six potential wins, the Orioles have spent at least $19 million dollars on Atkins, Gonzalez and Kevin Millwood. That is not much over the market's current rate, still given their likely standing in the division, I don't see the need to pay sticker price in what is shaping up as a buyer's market.
If the Orioles really wanted a corner infielder who could impact them winning the pennant in 2010, this guy is a free agent and can be had for less than $4 million.
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Even if you do adjust Atkins’ BABIP to the .311 xBABIP mark he posted in 2009, he still only posted a .285/.369/.398 line, which combined with the fact that he’s leaving Coors and moving to the AL East, along with his below-average defense, makes him a pretty big question mark at third base.
It’s not an awful signing, and he’s got decent upside because the guy was a 5.9 WAR player in 2006, but adding Gonzalez and Atkins isn’t going to make Baltimore a contender next season.
I think a guy like Eric Hinske (mvp jokes aside) or Chad Tracy
Could’ve been a fine stop gap to bell for probably half the cost, especially in the case of Hinske. They aren’t terrible deals, they just don’t seem like deals a 70-75 win team needs to make. Of course people said the same things about the 2008 Rays.
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by Tommy Rancel on Dec 18, 2009 12:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
The question to ask is
why is he declining. If it’s something temporary, anomalous or fixable, you’ve got a potential bargain. And to be frank, considering Atkins’ age, the only variable which you need to worry about is roids. If GA is clean, then there is every chance of a hitter who should be at his peak improving dramatically when backed by a team who rate him and give him every chance.
Rockies fan chiming in here
I think you’ll like this signing. Atkins was a stud for us over his years, even though as you point out, his numbers declined each year.
Ian Stewart is the reason that the Rox had to deal Atkins. Stewart was the top prospect in the organization forever, but he too plays third. Really, Stewart should have been up with the big club in 2007. But Atkins was putting up good numbers in ’07 (his best year was ’06).
The Rockies supposedly shopped Atkins during the offseason last year but were asking too much (rumors of Kevin Slowey or Ben Zobrist as the asking price). They ended up not trading him, he slumped to begin the year, and Stewart stole his spot. Atkins really never got consistent ABs last year, and he is traditionally a slow starter (although not as bad as Tulowitzki).
Atkins is a good player. He hits lots of doubles in the gaps (when he is swing sweet, he’ll be grooving the ball to right center). His range is limited, but when he gets to a ball, he usually fields it cleanly and makes a strong throw. In terms of speed, you can time him with a calendar.
As a Rockies fan, I’m sorry to see him go, but his spot got taken by a younger guy with a higher ceiling. I’m wishing that they traded him last year and got something for him instead of non-tendering. This is the same reason they should trade Hawpe this year…
Chone has Atkins as a ~2 WAR player
Although I’m skeptical given the trajectory.
As a stopgap on a 1 year deal who can theoretically play two positions, I think it’s pretty hard to find fault here.
I really hated this deal when I first heard of it
given Atkins offensive decline and lack of defense. I would much rather have had Crede, who would be cheaper and much better with the glove, but is an injury risk. All of that young pitching is going to want a solid defense behind them as they take their lumps. But giving Atkins a chance might not be a bad deal, provided that he’s hungry for a comeback and not another cheeseburger.
I do think they overpaid, but a team like the O’s have got to overpay to get FAs to sign there. Would you want to go to a team who wins 65 games/year, and faces the Yanks and Red Sox 36 games a year?
The fact that he can play either corner helps make the deal work. But the O’s are still looking at Atkins, Ty Wigginton, Michael Aubrey and maybe Luke Scott at the corners, not a group that inspires a lot of confidence.
I really hope this works out for them.
For five or six potential wins, the Orioles have spent at least $19 million dollars on Atkins, Gonzalez and Kevin Millwood. That is not much over the market’s current rate, still given their likely standing in the division, I don’t see the need to pay sticker price in what is shaping up as a buyer’s market.
Amen. I don’t mind signing vets as stopgaps. But surely there was a cheaper way to do it.
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