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Want to help me plan my baseball class? Topics and Links needed.

Jinaz-reds-avatar_tiny by JinAZ on

Update: Topic schedule that I am using is in the comments (toward the bottom), though not with references yet.  I will update this page (or make a new page) recapping the semester with the full reading list once the class is over.

I teach at a small university, and this spring I'm going to be teaching a class on baseball.  Here's the description I submitted this fall:

Course Title: The Science of Baseball

Description: Perhaps no other sport relies as much on tradition, hearsay, and loud opinion as baseball. But what is gained (or lost) when these claims are examined using a scientific approach? How do hitters watch the ball when it moves faster than human eyes can track? Do clutch hitters exist? Do steroids really help performance, and if not (or even if so) should they be banned? Why does a MLB bench player earn 10 times more money than a teacher? We will discuss these and other questions in light of studies from the exercise physiology, psychology, economics, and "sabermetrics" literature.

So, it's not a "sabermetric" class per se.  But a big part of what we're going to do will be sabermetrics.

Given that next semester starts in a month and, beyond this description, I basically haven't started prepping the class, it's time to start putting together a battle plan.  And I thought this might be where you folks could help. 

More below the jump.

Star-divide

Background on the course

This class is being offered as part of our general education program.  Each student at our university must take a 2-credit colloquium during their freshman year.  Typically, these classes are based on professors' pet interests.  This year, in addition to my baseball class, there's a class on the Twilight Saga, the works of C.S. Lewis, mankind's sense of invulnerability, etc.  

Classes are small (15-20 students, max) and are designed to be discussion-oriented (lectures should be minimal).  My class filled up quickly (popular, though admittedly not as popular as the Twilight class...but then, I doubt any class in campus history has been), so I can hopefully anticipate that most people took the class because they like baseball...though some might have taken it because it fits their schedule.  However, I can assume very little in the way of basic math skills, much less background in sabermetric concepts.

Grades will be determined by a) a research paper, which can be either a novel study that a student does, or a review paper on a specific topic, b) "entry slip" writing assignments responding to each day's assigned readings, and c) participation in the class discussions.

Goals

My primary goal in the class is to have students practice using a scientific approach to advance their understanding of something (in this case, baseball).  And, in my mind, that comes down to using logic and data as the basis for forming opinions, rather than other "approaches."  It sounds simple, but this is a remarkably underdeveloped skill among many students entering (and even leaving!) college.  A secondary goal is to get students up to date in modern research about baseball.  I don't need them to be researchers, but they should be able to read Hardball Times or FanGraphs, for example, and understand what's going on.  As a tertiary goal, this course designed is to permit me to play around with baseball all semester while simultaneously having a legitimate claim that I'm doing "work." :)

How you can help (should you be inclined to do so)

I have assigned two books (Bridging the Statistical Gap by Seidman & the Physics of Baseball by Adair), and we are definitely going to work through major parts of those books to start the semester.  However, I would also like to generate a large list of topics from which students can choose so that we can target the class to their specific interests.  Furthermore, for each topic, I'd like to get together a set of good readings--be they book chapters, journal articles, or online articles--that address the topic, ideally from several different angles (or in ways that come to different conclusions).  

I've started this below.  I've spent time on it, but it's still preliminary.  I'd very much like suggestions for additional topics, as well as and especially links to good articles on topics.  I'd especially like a) links to groundbreaking original articles (methods papers, etc) that are a cornerstone of our understanding of specific topics, and b) links to especially good, readable, and influential articles summarizing findings on specific topics (i.e. good review papers).  Recent applied stuff might also be interesting to provide methods-in-practice examples, but for the most part, I want to go after the original, influential papers.  As long as they're readable.

If this list turns out to be a resource that folks find useful, I may turn it into a small website of its own.  Many thanks in advance!

NOTE/UPDATE: If the topic list is too large/intimidating to work through in entirety, please think about your "pet" interests and then focus on those items as you look skim through the bigger list.  Not everyone can be an expert on everything!

Potential topic list

Baseball physics, biology, and psychology

How can we describe the different pitches that are thrown?

  • Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers, excerpts from each pitch type.
  • I'd love to include some good pitchf/x stuff here, but I haven't kept up.  Any nice, current primers?  John Walsh had a good one early on at THT.  Anything more recent?
  • Hardball Times 2009 by Fast (cliff lee turnaround; good example piece)

Why do breaking pitches break?

  • Physics of Basball by Adair, chapters 1,2,3,4

How do hitters make contact with a baseball (neuroscience-wise)?  What happens when the ball hits the bat (physics)?

  • Psychology of Baseball by Stadler, chapter 1,2
  • Physics of Baseball by Adair, chapters 1,2,3,5,6

How do fielders track down fly balls?

  • Psychology of Baseball by Stadler, chapter x.
  • Physics of Baseball by Adair, chapter 7.

Myth, or Reality?


Do players go through hot & cold streaks?
How valuable are batter/pitcher matchup numbers?  And other small sample size questions.
Do clutch hitters exist?
  • The Book by Tango et al, chapters 1,4
  • Baseball Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 1-2
  • Bridging the Statistical Gap by Seidman, chapter 6
How did steroids affect the on-field game of baseball?  Did they?
  • Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 9-1.
  • The Baseball Economist by Bradbury, chapter 9

Fielding isn't really that important, is it?

Are scouts being replaced by statistics?

  • Moneyball by Lewis, chapter 2 (draft board discussions)
  • Baseball Between the Numbers by BPro, "extra innings" by Perry
  • The Baseball economist by Bradbury, chapter 11
  • Something on the Fan Scouting Report, maybe my thing: http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/10/player-value-part-3b-comparing-of.html
  • Perry: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2250
Do umpire strike zones really vary all that much?
  • Could use some help here.  I know there's been stuff on this, I just haven't kept up on it.

    •  

    Speed guys add as much value with their legs as power guys do with their bats, right?

    • Anyone have a good article on this?  Ideally using something like Dan Fox's EqBRR?  I think John Walsh might have done some speed stuff at some point along with his arms stuff...?  I don't want to just do SB's, it's gotta be all baserunning.

    Players today just aren't as good as players in the past.

    • Between the Numbers by BPro (Silver's article has flawed methods, but good discussion)
    • THT Annual 2008(?) by Gassko (All-time pitcher rankings, adjusted for era difficulty)
    • Dan Fox: http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/2007/08/ankiel-and-bressler.html and http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5813 (subscription wall)

     

    Evaluating Value

    Why can't we just judge hitters on AVG/HR/RBI?

    Why can't we just judge pitchers by W/L record, ERA, or save totals?

    How can we assess a player's fielding?
    • My crap: http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/10/player-value-part-3a-fielding.html and http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/10/player-value-part-3b-comparing-of.html and http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/11/player-value-part-3c-fielding-catchers.html
    • Fielding Bible by Dewan and James, "chapters" 2 & 3 (Everett vs. Jeter, overview of plus/minus)
    • MGL's UZR series: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/lichtman_2003-03-14_0/ and http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/lichtman_2003-03-21_0/
    • Hardball Times Annual 2009, TZ article by Smith
    • Smith on Total Zone: http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/total_zone.shtml
    • Shane Jensen & SAFE: http://stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~stjensen/research/safe.html
    • THT Annual 2008 by Tango ( WOWY Jeter)
    How can we best estimate a players impact on scoring runs?  Winning?

     

    Judging trades and free agent signings: how much money is that player worth, dollar-wise?

     

    How much does home park matter?  How can we deal with that problem?

     

    How can we evaluate managers?

    • MGL in Hardball Times 2009 Annual
    • Gassko in Hardball Times 2008 Annual
    How should we decide end-of-season awards?  Hall of fame?
    • Not sure on articles (recommendations?).  Discussion would likely involve context-neutral vs. context-sensitive statistics, average vs. replacement baselines, and for hall of fame, peak vs. accumulated value.  This might end up being a good way to pitch the player value discussions rather than a topic in and of themselves.

    Game strategy

    When is sacrifice bunting a good idea?

    Can we really just use win expectancy to answer our baseball strategy questions?
    • The Book by Tango et al, chapter 10 (bluffing in baseball)
    • Any other good game theory articles, especially ones not about sac bunting?
    How can we best use our relievers?
    • The Book by Tango et al, chapter 8
    • Baseball Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 2-2
    What is the best way to make out a lineup?
    • Baseball Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 1-3
    • The Book by Tango et al, chapter 5

    Team-level analysis and front office strategy

    This part could definitely use expansion, both in topics and article.


    How can we best estimate team winning percentages?
    Should cities build stadiums for their local sports teams?
    • Baseball Between the Numbers, chapter 6-2
    • Anyone know a good original economics paper on this?  I think I remember reading something by Zimbalist, but haven't found it yet.
    How do teams make money?
    • Diamond Dollars by Gennaro, chapters 2 & 3
    • Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 6-1
    Do teams cycle?
    • Between the Numbers by BPro, chapter 8-3
    • Anything else on this issue?
    How do players age?
    • I'm thinking about using the Bradbury article & the Birnbaum/Tango responses as a way to discuss sampling bias.

    General summaries of sabermetric ideas

    Thanks to pur own Michael Jong and his glossary for directly or indirectly providing some of the links on this page.  Others were cobbled together from internet searches and my own recollections of important articles.

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    Not sure what to add right now

    …but this is absolutely fantastic. There’s just so much to go through there before I could even begin to add recommendations.

    I will say this, though: planning this class, with all these ideas and sources and whatnot, seems like an ideal use of Google Wave. Have you considered that? I have some invites if people want them…

    ==
    Check out Wezen-Ball.com

    by lar on Dec 17, 2009 12:09 PM EST reply actions  

    I'm thinking about making a Wave for my students when I ask them to start choosing sessions

    For this purpose, though, I’d rather just get peoples input in the comments and then add stuff that I like to the thread. :)

    Glad to have positive feedback. I have a feeling that the size of the topic list is a bit intimidating, and hence the low number of comments. My main suggestion is to think about your own “pet” topics and look for that stuff to see if I have good coverage there or if I’m missing important papers. :)
    -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 17, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions  

    On second thought, I went ahead and made a wave if folks would prefer that.

    I don’t know if there’s a better way to share it, but you can contact me at jinaz.reds-at-googlewave.com and I will gladly add you to the wave.
    -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 17, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

    Actually, I think it has to go the other way around.

    Send me your google wave contact info and I’ll add you to the wave. :) This can be done over e-mail if you want privacy: jinaz.reds-at-gmail-dot-com
    -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 17, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions  

    Game Theory

    MGL wrote an article for fangraphs on pitch selection form the pitcher’s perspective using game theory. I haven’t read it in awhile, so I don’t remember how readable it is. He also answers questions down in the comments.

    Play a Hard Nine

    by stevesommer05 on Dec 17, 2009 12:43 PM EST reply actions  

    Good stuff, thanks

    Will add to the game theory section. I think that could be heady but cool stuff, and would make for a nice discussion.
    -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 17, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions  

    Definitely good for discussion

    He starts out with some counter-intuitive statements which are always good discussion builders

    Beyond the Box Score | Play a Hard Nine | Twitter

    by stevesommer05 on Dec 17, 2009 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

    but

    i recall someone tearing the paper apart, due to selection bias and other problems. (dont remember who or where, though.)

    by jsolid on Dec 19, 2009 11:15 PM EST up reply actions  

    oops...posted in wrong place

    i meant this comment about the leavitt paper about pitchers using their fastball too much.

    by jsolid on Dec 19, 2009 11:16 PM EST up reply actions  

    Hey, this was my idea!

    Seriously, I’m glad to see someone doing this. I also teach at small University and am trying to develop a baseball course for a freshman seminar. Although, mine won’t be until next fall at the earliest. Our seminars are supposed to be centered around writing and critical thinking, so I thought baseball was a natural topic. I basically drafted this fanpost in my head, but I wasn’t going to use it until next semester.

    Your reading list looks fantastic. You’ve clearly got more to go on than you can actually fit into a one-semester course, so honestly, I think you’re ready. In my opinion, it doesn’t matter what you do from this list as long as you don’t try to cover too much.

    My biggest worry is getting everybody up to speed so that you can dive into some interesting topics. You’re probably going to have a few students who are hard-core baseball fans and a few who don’t even know the basic rules of baseball.

    by Trey Hillman's Chin on Dec 17, 2009 12:50 PM EST reply actions  

    Do you mind if I ask...

    What is your primary academic area of expertise?

    by Trey Hillman's Chin on Dec 17, 2009 12:52 PM EST up reply actions  

    Yep, sounds like we're doing very similar classes. :)

    You’re right that the reading list is definitely too large already, and that we’ll only get to do a fraction of the content. But I don’t want to miss out on better options than what I already have here. Hence, the post. :)

    I also thought that some other folks would find the reading list to be a nice resource.

    My basic plan at this point is to do Seidman’s book first, and then open it up to student chosen topics. I do expect that we will have to do at least some very basic coverage of linear weights, base runs, wOBA, baselines, etc, because those tools are going to be required to understand much of the more interesting stuff (strategy, for example). I definitely also want to include some of the Adair book and the Sadler Psychology book, but that can be toward the end of the semester if students don’t want to do it earlier.

    Thanks,
    Justin

    P.S. I primarily teach biology, anatomy & physiology, and a bit of neuroscience. I’m really hoping that I can make this class an annual thing. :)

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 17, 2009 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

    You've got a lot of material there

    Might be tough to hit all that in a 2-credit course. It would be fun, though.

    Maybe you should offer a major. :)

    But seriously, make sure you’ve seen this on the optical illusion part of a curveball. I wouldn’t call it settled science right now, but interesting.

    I also saw an article one time (in the last 6 months) about how pitchers use too many fastballs, from a game theory point of view. Soccer players on penalty kicks do a statistically excellent job of mixing it up; pitchers go to their fastball too predictably. I’ll see if I can find it again.

    "The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville

    by bbjones on Dec 17, 2009 1:46 PM EST reply actions  

    here it is

    From the Economist, so it looks academically legit. :)

    Actually, the real work was done by Levitt, the Freakonomics guy.

    "The USA despite its flaws and corruption and overall messiness is still a great and powerful instrument of freedom and hope for the entire world." - Madville

    by bbjones on Dec 17, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

    end-of-season awards

    If you’re looking for a way to approach the end-of-season awards topic, you might use the Cy Young Predictor section of the Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers. I think this is interesting from a perceived-value vis-a-vis approximated actual value standpoint.

    by Trey Hillman's Chin on Dec 17, 2009 2:17 PM EST reply actions  

    Good thought

    I think David Gassko had something on this a year or two ago as well. At least, I think it was him.
    -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 17, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

    suggestion

    You mentioned the class probably filled up quickly because people like baseball, and I’m sure you’re right. This could become pretty annoying if you end up with a bunch of people unwilling to embrace this type of thinking. I would recommend getting right into it pretty heavily in the first week to weed the class out a little.

    by Xave on Dec 17, 2009 2:40 PM EST reply actions  

    Actually, since it's a discussion class

    I think this could be a good thing. My hope is that we will get some people who are very taken aback by some of the ideas in the articles they’ll read. Since we’ll be stressing the need to support arguments with data, the obligation will be on them to refute the claims with data.

    As long as they’re not total jerks, we should be fine. :)
    -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 17, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

    I’d like to know how this class goes, if you don’t mind.

    Please hit better, Randy Winn.

    by oldjacket on Dec 17, 2009 3:22 PM EST reply actions  

    I'll probably do a retrospective write-up here once the class is over

    Also, my hope is that I’ll get a student or two willing to geek it out enough to do a nice little project that might be worth submitting somewhere for public consumption. I’d love to have a student publish something at hardball times, for example.
    -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 17, 2009 9:19 PM EST up reply actions  

    I'll probably get my ass chewed for saying this, but...

    What a fun class to teach.

    Can you make a class project of drafting fantasy baseball teams? You have the right number for one large mixed league or two smaller ones. This would be a great way to teach them about projection, player valuation and roster construction. On the basis of the fact that you want to take a scientific approach, you might use an unusual scoring system for a points league instead of the traditional 5×5 roto rules. It sounds like you have guys (I’m guessing it’s mostly guys…) who are knowledgeable enough about baseball to do it.

    by philosofool on Dec 17, 2009 3:36 PM EST reply actions  

    Yep, this is something I'm thinking about

    We’d only get about a month into the season before the class ended, which is a shame. But I do like the idea of putting together a draft to bring up issues of how to project players. Plus there’s the possibility of incorporating payroll, which adds a whole new dimension to things.

    This is the scoring system I’d want to use: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/yahoo_fantasy_linear_weights_league/

    I wish we could do better with the fielding data, but it’s better than anything else I’ve seen.
    -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 17, 2009 9:22 PM EST up reply actions  

    I agree with the people saying be up front and get right to it. You have far too much material already without suggestions for a Freshman 2 credit class that a lot of people will be taking for an easy A. I have no doubt many people here would be fascinated by a class like this but I think you might struggle to keep some of your students on board with the kind of workload I’m imagining from the list of topics above. Hopefully you and your students have a good time.

    by jfish26101 on Dec 17, 2009 7:12 PM EST reply actions  

    I took a class called Baseball/Beisbol last year

    It was a one time class offered at Johns Hopkins. It was more humanities-based, like the culture of baseball and we read books and watched films for it. I liked it a lot, but your class is much more interesting.

    by BrendanHarrisLives on Dec 17, 2009 8:40 PM EST reply actions  

    That remains to be seen!
    but your class is much more interesting.

    Sometimes, I think it might end up being easier to just pop in the Ken Burns Baseball special and let that fill up a few weeks of class! :)
    -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 17, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions  

    Um, make this online sometime?

    I used to work with an old man that told me- Son, every workplace has a dumbass. If you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.

    by Warden11 on Dec 17, 2009 8:41 PM EST reply actions  

    Maybe someday. :)

    We don’t offer a lot of online classes. Might be some movement in that direction, but not for now.
    -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 17, 2009 9:30 PM EST up reply actions  

    Understand, reading here is pretty much its own online class.

    The links and posts provide me with plenty of reading as it is.

    I used to work with an old man that told me- Son, every workplace has a dumbass. If you don't have one where you work, then I'm afraid you're it.

    by Warden11 on Dec 17, 2009 10:04 PM EST up reply actions  

    The Farm

    You could look at any team in baseball that’s successful and they all have a stable of “homegrown” talent. You should talk about the value of prospects, overvaluing prospects, and prospects that tend to be overhyped (guys that hit for high averages but strikeout a lot, pitchers who are able to shit down MiLB hitters’ throats but lack the stuff and command to get out major leaguers, etc), and recent trades in which a star has been traded for prospects.

    by Omar Little on Dec 18, 2009 4:29 AM EST reply actions  

    Good ideas

    I have a bit on prospect valuation (mostly Victor Wang’s stuff), as well as player valuation. The natural extension of that might be to do some trade valuation stuff. Maybe we can pick a recent trade (I’m sure there will be one), or even an offseason extravaganza like the Lee/Halliday trade, and dissect it.

    The issue of homegrown talent also comes into play in the “team cycle” topic.
    -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 18, 2009 9:22 AM EST up reply actions  

    The Business of Baseball

    This needs to be talked about too, if you’re going to educate sports fans on baseball it needs to be made clear that this salary cap nonsense is bunk and that plenty of teams do quite a bit to limit the amount of money that they can make.

    by Omar Little on Dec 18, 2009 4:32 AM EST reply actions  

    Any favorite links on salary cap debate?

    I’m not as convinced that it’s as clear cut as you state, but if nothing else it might make for good discussion.
    -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 18, 2009 9:23 AM EST up reply actions  

    My $.02

    Topic: How to measure fielding. There are a number of good pieces on this.

    Topic: Decision-making. A critical thinking experiement. If sub-optimal decisions are being made, why? Closer usage is an obvious one.

    Book suggestion: Fooled by Randomness, N. N. Taleb. Perhaps you’ve read it. Use that as an intro to randomness in a more general way. Leonard Mlodinow’s “Drunkard’s Walk” is also a good one.

    by pizzacutter on Dec 18, 2009 11:32 AM EST reply actions  

    Have some stuff one the first two

    I’m reasonably happy with my own fielding write-up. Also have MGL’s original UZR series, as well as the James and Dewan essays that lead off the original Fielding Bible.

    Decision making: I like the discussion idea. I have articles from BPro’s book and from The Book that discuss how one should do it.

    Thanks for the book suggestions, haven’t read either. I have some stuff on the issue already (including Psych of Baseball, which you reviewed).
    -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 18, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

    I totally missed your fielding section

    I thought it was weird that you didn’t put one in… sorry, I have baby brain right now.

    by pizzacutter on Dec 19, 2009 4:40 PM EST up reply actions  

    On Managers

    I’d recommend the new Jaffe book.

    The HK-47 hitting droid is the finest line drive machine ever built

    by RallyMonkey5 on Dec 18, 2009 1:24 PM EST reply actions  

    Yeah, I read it some years ago

    My recollection is that it was primarily a historical take on the history of numbers in baseball. Nothing really stuck with me as being particularly good in terms of analysis. Though maybe I should revisit it for good examples of how scientific thinking was applied to baseball.. Thanks. -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 18, 2009 2:14 PM EST up reply actions  

    The psychology aspect interests me the most.

    I say that as someone who has a solid grasp on many of the other ideas suggested, though.

    Why do some groups not believe the “science”? Do they choose not to? Why not? Do they gain something by not treating baseball as something that should be approached with science?

    Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.

    by Sky Kalkman on Dec 18, 2009 7:44 PM EST reply actions  

    Good questions: I think this follows from Pizza Cutter's topic #2

    Why is it that folks don’t follow optimality? Because they don’t know any better? Because they refuse to know any better? Or because they do, but they still choose not to conform.
    -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 18, 2009 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

    Actually, you're drifting into cultural anthropology there

    That’s not a bad thing. It’s an interesting question. Why is it that you can sit down with someone and logically show that Sabermetric methods work great, and then have him completely reject them. In addition, how did the baseball culture come to de-value the walk (see Swartz’s “Numbers Game”)?

    by pizzacutter on Dec 19, 2009 4:39 PM EST up reply actions  

    Yes, love those question.

    And I don’t mean to imply that not buying sabermetrics is necessarily a bad thing. Most saber-friendly people are looking for truth/objectivity/understanding/etc. But I’m sure we don’t do that in all parts of our life. We do things purely for the ritual or emotion of it many times. Building Don Mattingly up as a folk-hero isn’t a bad thing and many people have obviously quite enjoyed it. When you point out that Mattingly is, objectively, not close to being a HoFamer, many people don’t want to hear that. It kills their legent. But as long as they weren’t coming at you claiming he was a Hall of Famer, I think both sides can remain on their own side of the line.

    Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.

    by Sky Kalkman on Dec 21, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions  

    Pitchf/x Primer

    J, the 2010 THT Annual has an excellent Pitchf/x Primer by Mike Fast. I think it’s the best I’ve seen on the topic.

    by studes on Dec 19, 2009 12:33 AM EST reply actions  

    Awesome, thanks.

    Hopefully that will be in my stocking on Friday! :)
    -j

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Dec 19, 2009 10:10 AM EST up reply actions  

    pythag?

    i think a bit on the pythagorean win formula is a must. this is useful for showing how runs convert to wins directly and mathematically. for the mathematically inclined, you can reference the paper by Steven Miller, where he proved that a Weibull distribution for two variables will result in a pythagorean formula for win pct, only the exponent remains to be determined.
    i think that the recent discussion on Fangraphs about “the marginal value of a win” is great (e.g. what is a 2-WAR player worth? to which team?). because it has to do with strategy in the front office, and a common sense use of all the statistics generated – you know, use the mathematics, dont let the mathematics use you.
    said the math professor. :)

    by jsolid on Dec 19, 2009 11:30 PM EST reply actions  

    Physics of Baseball

    Have a look at my web site devoted to the topic:
    webusers.npl.illinois.edu/~a-nathan/pob
    There are links there to lots of material on many of the topics you might want to cover in a course like this, including a link to my own course that I taught a couple of years ago. Feel free to contact me privately if you want to discuss possible topics and help you locate useful material.

    by pobguy on Dec 29, 2009 12:18 AM EST reply actions  

    I'm bookmarking this thread...

    as I hope to teach a similar course in the future. Thanks for starting this!

    by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Jan 4, 2010 2:56 PM EST reply actions  

    For those interested, here's the schedule as I currently have it.

    The students did some informal voting/discussion this week to narrow down what we’ll do, and I used that to pick topics and set a schedule. We meet two days a week for 50 minutes per meeting. Each class meeting is numbered. Schedule is flexible, so if students want to go a different direction on a class meeting—or I find that the readings work better via another organizational scheme—we can still modify it. I specifically mention the Adair & Seidman books because those are books that were assigned for the course.

    1. Intro
    2. Topic selection
    3. PED: Introduction: basic biology/endocrinology, baseball PED timeline
    4. PED: Trying to test for effects (Silver)
    5. PED: More testing for effects (Tobin & Tango)
    6. PED: Should we care?
    7. VALUE: No to AVG/HR/RBI/W/L
    8. VALUE: Yes to lwts, wOBA (not OPS), replacement level
    9. VALUE: Yes to fielding, WAR
    10. VALUE: Pitchers & DIPS
    11. SAMPLESIZE: Hot/cold, matchups (inc. seidman 4)
    12. SAMPLESIZE: Clutchiness (inc. seidman 6)
    13. SAMPLESIZE: Regression & True Talent
    14. SAMPLESIZE: Home/Road splits, park effects, home field advantage
    15. STRATEGY: Lineups
    16. STRATEGY: Stealing
    17. DRAFT: Projections, player valuation, etc.
    18. STRATEGY: Sac Bunting & bluffing
    19. PHYSICS: Pitch types
    20. STRATEGY: Pitch Selection
    21. PHYSICS: Adair ch. 1, 2: Flight of the Baseball
    22. PHYSICS: Adair ch. 4: Pitching
    23. PHYSICS: More on Adair, perhaps also Sadler.
    24. Student Presentations of their research projects.
    25. Student Presentations
    26. Student Presentations
    27. Student Presentations
    28. Student Presentations & Evaluations

    I write at:
    Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds

    by JinAZ on Jan 15, 2010 2:32 PM EST reply actions  

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