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Analyzing Halladay/Lee Insanity with Trade Value Calculator

Roy Halladay is very good. Cliff Lee is very good.


This trade is insanely, insanely mind-boggling, and thus I had to bust out the numbers. This is a trade so epically confusing that I had to actually

So, I am going to use Sky's awesome,amazing, Trade Value Calculator, located here, to see how everything plays out. And provide some commentary, of course. Bah, I really should be sleeping right now.

 

Part One: The Aces:

First, the surplus value of Roy Halladay: (WAR values from Fangraphs)

 

Roy Halladay








Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M)
2009



2010 $15.8 7.0 $31.9 $16.2
2011



2012



2013



2014



2015



2016



FA Picks

$5.0
Total $15.8 7.0 $36.9 $21.2

 

 

He has about $21.2MM worth of surplus value, this including draft pick compensation.

Now, he is signing an awesome extension, supposedly worth 3/60. This is because Toronto provided Philly with an extension window, in which. The extension window does, indeed, have value. However, I do not know how to quantify, or remotely estimate, this value, which is one of the reasons I'm posting this thing. If his extension is 3/60, the Phillies would be paying an average of 20MM/yr for him. Which, although it is below his performance value, I can count the number of pitchers who have contracts with AAVs above 20MM on one hand.


Also, ANY player who is approaching free agency has an exclusive negotiating window with his team; it is the period before free agency officially begins.

Now, Lee.


Cliff Lee








Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M)
2009



2010 $9.0 6.0 $27.4 $18.4
2011



2012



2013



2014



2015



2016



FA Picks

$5.0
Total $9.0 6.5 $34.7 $23.4

 

 

Lee's got a 23.4MM surplus value. The WAR projections for Lee and Doc were both equally conservative, especially considering league adjustments. You could add 0.5 WAR to Doc or Lee as you see fit.

The big shocker was that Lee, ultimately, has more surplus value than Doc. But, the difference between the salaries is greater than general win values, which is about 4- 4.5MM.  [Salary data from Cot's, btw]

Generally speaking, Halladay represents a 1 WAR upgrade over Lee, maybe greater.

 

Part Two: The Prospects:

I'm going to value the prospects based on Victor Wang's research on prospect valuation, summarized here and here in the Roy Halladay context . I'm going to be very conservative with the prospect rankings, factoring in BA's mid-season top 25, John Sickels' preseason grades and mid-season reviews, and a little eyeballing of who's risen and fallen on these lists, along with where '09 draftees may rank on these lists (pretty much, if someone is on the fringe between two stratas of value, they get bumped down). Yeah, this is freaking rough. Here is what I'm gleaning.

Phillippe Aumont: [Top 76-100 pitcher]: $9.8MM

Juan Ramirez: [Grade B pitcher]: $7.3MM

Tyson Gillies: [Grade C hitter 22 or younger]: $0.7MM

Travis D'Arnaud: [Grade B hitter] : $5.5MM

Kyle Drabek: [Top 26-50 pitcher]: $15.9MM

Michael Taylor: [Top 26-50 hitter]: $23.4MM

I'm especially unsure on Aumont and Ramirez, especially since their pedestrian numbers came in an extreme hitters' park.

Sources:

BA Phillies 2010 Top 10  (they haven't released them for AL teams yet)

BA MIdseason Top 25 (Drabek = #24, Taylor = #23)

Sickels' Mariners '09 Prospects:

 

 

Part Three: The Results:

Now, the tables!

Philly:

Gives: 44.8MM surplus value (Drabek, Taylor, and D'Arnaud) + 23.4MM surplus value (Lee) = 68.2MM value

Gets: 39MM surplus value (Halladay, Aumont, Ramirez, Gillies) + 6MM salary relief = 45MM value

Net: 23.2MM deficit

 

Seattle:

Gives: 17.8MM surplus value (Aumont, Ramirez, and Gillies)

Gets: 23.4MM of surplus value (Lee)

Net: 5.6MM surplus

 

Toronto:

Gives: $21.2MM surplus value (Halladay) + 6MM salary relief = 27.2MM value

Gets: $44.8MM surplus value (Drabek, Taylor, and D'Arnaud)

Net: 17.6MM surplus

 

Of course, you can factor in increased playoff probability for Seattle and Philadelphia. Also, of course, the increased marginal value of a win, since each additional win is worth more for a contending team than a non (Dave Cameron explains it here)

Toronto and Seattle clearly came out on top, as Seattle gave up less long-term value than they received, which is very, very rare. Toronto received a massive, massive amount of surplus value and two players who should put them back on the map pretty soon.

Philly, on the other hand, paid dearly for a 1 WAR improvement. Despite the fact that they're a contending team and have the payroll resources to overpay for wins, this was a massive overpay. They paid about 23.2MM for an upgrade that will be about 1.5 WAR at best.

Of course, there is the quantifiable value of an extension window. Which is a question in and of itself. The obvious upgrade which the Phillies receive for 2011-2013, at a team friendly price, must be worth something, especially since the Phils negotiated the extension before the trade went through.

It is very possible that Halladay will produce 23.2MM of surplus value throughout the tenure of his extension. A very, very tall order considering his age, but very plausible.

This isn't "OMG FIRE AMARO" bad, but its questionable at best for Philly.

 

DISCLAIMER: Yes, I know the deal is still tentative. Hah.

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