No Pepper

by Tommy Bennett on Dec 1, 2009 2:17 PM EST Comment 9 comments

Today is arbitration offer day. Dave Cameron has an interesting look at a team's decision to offer arbitration or not. If I had to guess the single biggest mistake teams will make this offseason it will be failing to offer arbitration out of fear that the player will accept.

Tim Dierkes has a comprehensive guide to free agent arbitration offers. Teams have to make their offers by 12am EST.

Arbitration offers don't get your blood-boiling? Fungoes counsels patience and backs it up with a histogram of historical activity. Since 2000, the single day with the greatest activity has been December 6th. This is probably the best visualization I have seen all week.

Drew Fairservice gives anything but fair service to the various projection algorithms. He includes a comically bad pick for each; I especially enjoyed the "LOLine" for ZiPS, Jeremy Guthrie.

Maury Brown goes into depth about Tim Lincecum's potential near-certain record-breaking arbitration case. Keep in mind the disaster scenario for the Giants is for Lincecum to win at arbitration, which would set him down the highest possible path for years to come. This should keep them from low-balling him too much.

I missed his birthday on the 29th, but here's a great collection of calls by Vin Scully. Happy 82 to one of the best.

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The real LOLine

for PECOTA is their Matt Wieters projection. I think their deadly accurate forecast was for him to be one of the top 5 hitters in the game. As a rookie.

godfather of futureredbirds.net

by erik on Dec 1, 2009 2:24 PM EST reply actions

Yeah I chalk that one up to the new Davenport translations

I believe they heavily rewarded success at Triple-A versus lower levels of the minors.

by Tommy Bennett on Dec 1, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions

The problem was with their AA and A rankings, not so much the AAA rankings.

Which of course is why Wieters, who never played above AA, was so heavily overprojected.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Dec 2, 2009 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

My mistake

You are correct.

by Tommy Bennett on Dec 2, 2009 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

Wieters

Both Chone and ZIPs are fairly cautious for 2010. The projected #s are still pretty good for a catcher, of course.

by danielj on Dec 1, 2009 3:04 PM EST reply actions

Arbitration Headscatcher

Cubs do not offer arb to Harden. Don’t get that.

by danielj on Dec 1, 2009 3:06 PM EST reply actions

Headscratcher

Randy Wolf. Not offered arb by the Dodgers. I do realize that it is likely that he gets a major raise in arb, but I can’t see how it wouldn’t be worth it.

And, you’d think that he could get a multi year deal somewhere else, and would be very, very likely to decline. He just became that much more attractive to teams.

"I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it" ~ Mae West

by Blicks on Dec 1, 2009 9:09 PM EST reply actions