Which Side Won When Bobby Abreu Re-signed for $19 Million with the Angels?

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Nov 5, 2009 11:54 PM EST Comment 5 comments

Bobby Abreu re-signed with with the Angels today for $9 million guaranteed in each of the next two seasons with a $9 million vesting option for 2012 that includes a $1 million buyout. The option is guaranteed if Abreu has 550 PA in 2011 or 1,200 in 2010-11 combined. On the surface, this deal looks decent, but will Bobby be able to contribute enough to warrant his salary.

Batting: Bobby projects to have a 0.365 wOBA for next season (I weighted of the pre-season projections with a value of 2 and a weighted value of 1 for the 2009 season). This computes to about 20 RAA (runs above average) for 600 PA in a season. Adding in the adjustment for a replacement player with 600 PA of ~20 runs, his value from hitting puts him at +40 RAR (runs above replacement).

Fielding: Bobby's is not the best fielder as seen by is UZR values of -14.4, -2.5,-25.3, and -12.1 for the years 2006 to 2009. It can be assumed that his fielding is somewhere near or above -10 UZR or 10 runs worse than the average corner outfielder.

Replacement: A -10 UZR value for a corner outfield is a magic number for staying in the OF or being the DH. The positional adjustment for a corner OF is -7.5 runs. The adjustment for the DH is -17.5 runs. If Bobby is worse than -10 UZR he should be moved to DH where he won't have to take the field and accumulate negative UZR. With Vladimir Guerrero a free agent, the DH spot looks to be Bobby's for the taking.

Total Runs and Wins Added:

Corner OF: 40 RAR + -10 UZR + -7.5 positional runs = 22.5 RAR

DH: 40 RAR + 0 UZR + -17.5 positional runs = 22.5 RAR

Taking the 22.5 RAR and converting it to wins (22.5/10.5) leads to 2.1 WAR contributed by Bobby. With the current FA rate of $ per WAR at $4.4 million, Bobby's production should demand a salary of 9.25 million. Looks like both the Angels and Bobby came out pretty even on this deal. Congrats to both sides for a fair contract.

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Good stuff Jeff.

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by SFiercex4 on Nov 6, 2009 12:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rev HaloFan says

It means goodbye for Figgins:

http://www.halosheaven.com/2009/11/6/1118310/abreu-signing-signals-chone

by Tommy Bennett on Nov 6, 2009 3:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rev HaloFan says a lot of things

but I don’t really see how Abreu’s contract is related to Figgins, and rather than explaining how they do relate, Rev just makes a weak connection between the two. Sure, the OF is set, but Figgins was their 3B. He mentions that there’s “a league-minimum Brandon Wood bat ready to power the lineup from the hot corner.” According to the Angels, Wood hasn’t been ready to step in for two years, but now because there’s a possible opening at 3B he’s suddenly ready? That’s crummy Hudler-esque analysis.

Then again, this is coming from a guy who thinks 18 year old Mike Trout is “the Tim Salmon of the future” for no other reason than because they both have fishy surnames.

"You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
-Wayne Gretzky"
-Michael Scott

by scatterbrian on Nov 6, 2009 6:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not seeing it.

Surely your projection of 2.1 WAR for Abreu is his upside. There’s essentially no chance at his advanced age that he’s going to turn back into a 3 WAR player, whereas his downside is that he suffers a career ending injury, or he simply falls off a cliff and is no longer a useful ML player.

In other words, Abreu’s upside is that he’s worth the contract, and his downside is that the Angels spend $19m and get no production. How can that be a fair contract—it’s heads both of us win, and tails you lose.

by SeanSchirmer on Nov 7, 2009 11:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs