Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: SB Nation NFL Power Rankings for Week 11

World Series Simulation, Game #6

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and Yankees using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Monday at 930PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
PHI
NYA
P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte NYA 64.97%
64.66%
61%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... Vegas and my simulator are in almost perfect agreement on the Yankees win probability.  Once again the key for the Phillies will be to silence the heart of the Yankees order as much as possible.  Not an easy thing to do.  AccuScore has come in with the lowest win probability of the three for the Yankees.  Meanwhile, the Vegas line has moved up to 65.87% since the opening lines came out.

 

Top 100 Most Likely Scores

1 NYA 4-3
2 NYA 3-2
3 NYA 5-4
4 NYA 6-5
5 NYA 2-1
6 PHI 4-3
7 NYA 4-2
8 PHI 3-2
9 PHI 5-4
10 NYA 5-3
11 NYA 3-1
12 NYA 4-1
13 NYA 5-2
14 NYA 7-6
15 NYA 6-2
16 NYA 6-4
17 NYA 6-3
18 NYA 5-1
19 PHI 4-2
20 PHI 5-3
21 PHI 2-1
22 NYA 3-0
23 NYA 7-2
24 PHI 6-5
25 PHI 6-4
26 NYA 7-1
27 NYA 4-0
28 NYA 7-3
29 PHI 5-2
30 NYA 7-4
31 PHI 3-1
32 PHI 6-3
33 NYA 6-1
34 NYA 7-5
35 NYA 8-3
36 PHI 4-1
37 NYA 8-7
38 NYA 1-0
39 NYA 2-0
40 PHI 7-4
41 NYA 5-0
42 PHI 7-5
43 PHI 7-6
44 NYA 8-4
45 PHI 6-2
46 NYA 6-0
47 NYA 8-2
48 NYA 8-1
49 NYA 9-3
50 PHI 7-3
51 PHI 5-1
52 NYA 8-5
53 NYA 8-6
54 NYA 9-2
55 PHI 2-0
56 PHI 8-6
57 NYA 9-4
58 PHI 8-4
59 NYA 9-8
60 PHI 8-3
61 NYA 7-0
62 NYA 10-2
63 NYA 9-1
64 PHI 6-1
65 PHI 8-5
66 PHI 4-0
67 PHI 8-7
68 NYA 9-5
69 NYA 8-0
70 PHI 7-2
71 NYA 10-4
72 PHI 3-0
73 NYA 10-3
74 PHI 1-0
75 PHI 8-2
76 NYA 9-6
77 PHI 7-1
78 NYA 10-1
79 NYA 10-5
80 NYA 9-0
81 PHI 9-8
82 PHI 9-4
83 PHI 5-0
84 NYA 11-3
85 NYA 11-5
86 PHI 9-5
87 PHI 8-1
88 PHI 9-2
89 PHI 9-3
90 NYA 11-2
91 NYA 11-1
92 PHI 9-6
93 NYA 9-7
94 NYA 10-6
95 NYA 11-4
96 PHI 10-3
97 PHI 9-7
98 PHI 6-0
99 NYA 10-9
100 PHI 10-5

 

Game Pitching Results

Pitcher IP SO BB HR WHIP FIP
P.Martinez 6.4 3.994 2.521 1.17 1.465 5.524
A.Pettitte 7.0 5.164 2.746 0.78 1.255 4.360

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
  Name wOBA Name wOBA
1 J.Rollins .2986 D.Jeter .3301
2 S.Victorino .2937 J.Damon .3450
3 C.Utley .3195 M.Teixeira .3843
4 R.Howard .3124 A.Rodriguez .3837
5 J.Werth .3282 H.Matsui .3533
6 R.Ibanez .3052 J.Posada .3590
7 B.Francisco .2921 N.Swisher .3454
8 P.Feliz .2810 R.Cano .3233
9 C.Ruiz .2821 B.Gardner .3003

 




0 recs  |  Comment 3 comments  |  Add comment

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Good question. Yes it does, but defense and weather are two areas that I will be spending time this offseason improving/tweaking in my model.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Nov 4, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Score #28 Hits

and with it the Yankees advance on to the next round to likely play the winner of the SEC Championship game.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Nov 5, 2009 12:33 AM EST reply actions   0 recs


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
PZR-based Win Values 2001-2006
Small
The "30 parks on a budget" challenge

Recent FanPosts

Small
Determining Batted Ball Rates using Pitch Type and Location
Small
a new xBABIP calculator
Img587561916661595
Top 15 high school MLB draft prospects
Sunflower_small
World Series Simulation, Game #6
Small
JT20 Dynasty League
E52205a2_small
New Look
Sth70021_small
Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly
Redcap_small
Ricky Nolasco: 4 WAR or 1 WAR?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Primer on BaseRuns
Cool Baseball Infographics
ESPN's Jerry Crasnick on defensive metrics
I’m also a follower, since Brian Bannister’s on our team, of sabermetric st...
Top Ten Baseball-Reference.com's Sponsorships
Primer on Linear Weights
JC Bradbury on "Hot Stove Myths"
Everyone Should Learn to Throw a Cutter
Criminals of WAR
Ten statisticians you should know about

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Tommy B: @tommy_bennett
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Nando_small R.J. Anderson

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

E52205a2_small Tommy Bennett

Editors

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Banny_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Jmlogo_small Jack Moore

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

1_small Graham

Baseball_small Mike Rogers

Redcap_small SFiercex4

Small Patrick Clark

Walter_album_small Walter Fulbright