Rays hand Pirates some free wins (because they had to)
The news broke out today that the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired infielder Akinori Iwamura from the Tampa Bay Rays for reliever Jesse Chavez. Now, there have been many sources of analysis on this topic, so I won't delve too much further into this, but I did think it would be nice for us to whip out the good ol' fashioned Sky Kalkman Trade Value Calculator (a Beyond the Box Score original!) once again.
The Players
Akinori Iwamura was the Rays' starting second baseman this season, having moved from third base to the keystone last season to make way for the long-awaited arrival of Evan Longoria. Since arriving in Tampa from Japan, Iwamura has been a solidly average to above average player for the team, posting WAR totals of 2.4 and 2.6 in 2007 and 2008 respectively, according to FanGraphs. Iwamura accomplished these totals in an extremely average way. His wOBA totals of .338 and .323, when park adjusted, yielded runs above average (RAA) totals of 4.7 and -1.1 runs in 2007 and 2008 respectively. Iwamura's defense was just around average as well, both at 3B (career UZR/150 of -0.2 runs) and at second (career UZR/150 of 1.1 runs).
So what you see in Iwamura is a slightly above average bat and an average glove at two "neutral" defensive positions of second and third base. In 2009, this trend did not seem to change, as Iwamura was posting a .338 wOBA at the plate and was worth, in total, 1.2 WAR before going down to injury for the season on a hard slide by Florida Marlins' rookie Chris Coghlan.
Without going through much of a projection, I feel fairly confident that I can pencil in Iwamura for production equal to his career .331 wOBA. For defense, I took a look at Iwamura's numbers both in UZR and TotalZone, and both seem to be in agreement of him being fairly average at either second or third base. The Fans seem to think quite highly of him, and because of that I'll give him a slight bump up to a +1 run defender. Using those numbers and the sort of playing time Iwamura gathered in 2008 gives you the following value from the calculator:
Essentially, Iwamura would be making the Pirates $7.5M in surplus value for his projected production. Based on what they gave up for him, that total is likely to be the total surplus value for the trade as well.
Jesse Chavez is a 26-year old righty reliever who has logged 82 1/3 innings in the major leagues for the Pirates organization. R.J. Anderson over at DRaysBay provides a better look at Chavez than what I will show you, but what I can tell you is that Chavez has walked and struck out batters at a decent enough rate over those innings. However, he has had a problem with home runs which has been exacerbated by allowing only 40% of batted balls to roll on the ground as opposed to flying through the air. He also has a severe lefty-rigthy split, though it seems reversed as R.J. mentions in the linked piece. Ultimately though, Chavez appears just another guy in the bullpen, someone whose production can be leveraged but is otherwise unspectacular and eminently replaceable. Given his career WAR total of -0.4 with the Pirates, placing him at around replacement level production is not a total stretch.
And now the context part
As many have been mentioning in analysis of this deal, when taken in a vacuum, the Pirates clearly came out a winner. Pittsburgh gets to fill a gaping hole at second base with a player who is more than capable of performing at or above league average level. The Pirates should be quite happy to have Iwamura on their team to replace Delwyn Young at second base.
The Rays appear to have gotten very little in return for Iwamura, but this was to be expected. They had a logjam in the infield and Iwamura's $4.85M option was unlikely to be picked up. In order to salvage some value from him instead of paying his buyout and receiving nothing, the Rays turned the $500K they would have paid to have Iwamura leave and instead received an arbitration-controlled arm that could presumably be plugged into their bullpen at a slight discount. The Rays had little to no leverage and came out with another player on their roster who will make very little and the difference between the buyout and the rookie salary. It cannot be considered a win, but the Rays simply cannot be blamed. Call it a win-neutral, if you will.
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12 comments
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Comments
If I was the Pirates I might be worried of the effects of ACL
I looked back at a few ACL tears.
Corey Patterson 2003
Aaron Boone 2004
Jody Gerut 2004
BJ Shuroff 2002
Tony Graffinino 2002
They all came back same or worse the next year.
He might be fine since of the long layoff
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Nov 3, 2009 10:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Torn ACL is not that common and I removed pitchers.
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Nov 3, 2009 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Credit to the Pirates for taking the free wins though.
It won’t put them near the playoffs, still, smart move.
by R.J. Anderson on Nov 3, 2009 10:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I wonder about the "no leverage" comment
Makes sense that the Rays had to trade him. But given that he likely represents surplus value in 2010 (granted, there’s the ACL issue), I’d think that there would be other teams that had interest and would compete with the Pirates’ offer.
-j
I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore | Red Reporter | Basement-Dwellers.com | Twitter: @jinazreds
by JinAZ on Nov 4, 2009 8:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand why they didn't take this offer and then call up Billy Beane and ask him to beat it
because it’s hard to imagine that he wouldn’t have. As I mentioned on the Fangraphs thread, there are probably 10 better relievers in the A’s farm system. And Oakland could theoretically actually be competitive next season.
I totally, utterly disagree about the “neutral” assessment of this for the Rays. It’s not neutral. They had an asset with substantial surplus value and they blew it because they got cold feet over a very low-probability financial risk.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Nov 4, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Just reading some comments over at Kovacevic's blog
There were a good deal of Pirates fans not happy with this deal. This may have something to do with the average fan overvaluing relievers a bit, but they seemed to be unhappy with the idea that they traded 4-5 years of Chavez’s relief work for one of Iwamura’s solid play. I don’t know.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
by SFiercex4 on Nov 4, 2009 10:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm really starting to like how Neal Huntington is handling the Pirates. This season's deals were solid, and now he pounces on Iwamura for very little.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
by SFiercex4 on Nov 4, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Regarding the Kovacecic blog comments...
Some of it has to do with overvaluing relievers (and hard-throwing relievers in particular), but mostly it’s just people reflexivly hating whatever the Pirates front office does. Believe me, if the Pirates had traded Iwamura for Chavez, the same people would be just as unhappy. They’re not the most analytical group of commenters out there, to put it mildly.
by maguro on Nov 4, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder what the odds are
that the Pirates get a partial productive season out of Iwamura and flip him for a better prospect at the deadline than the one they gave up?
by stevesommer05 on Nov 4, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very high I'd say
Most people think that was the main point of the deal, look a bit more productive in 2010 and then get a better prospect in return.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
by SFiercex4 on Nov 4, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I rec'd this article because it is awesome.
And so should you. Best analysis of the deal that I’ve read.
See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp
by Justin Bopp on Nov 4, 2009 2:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

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