Using the TVC

by backtocali on Nov 21, 2009 11:45 AM EST Comment 9 comments

General question for the members of Btb: When using Sky Kalkman's Trade Value Calculator, during the offseason, do you include '09 numbers to determine the players value?

Josh Johnson for example, if you input his 5.5 WAR, and $1.4 million salary, and then input 60 and 80% for his '10 and '11 salary, with a 4.7 and 4.3 WAR for '10 and '11 respecitvely, his surplus value comes out to be a little over $41 million. But this just doesnt seem right to me. Why would a team pay for past performance?

If you eliminate the '09 information altogether, but leave the '10 and '11 the same, the surplus value comes out a little over $17 million.

Should you just split the difference to determine his value? Or is the $17 mil number correct, and if so, it seems a little low. Any advice?

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Use any number of WAR estimates

I prefer to just guess, but there are plenty of places that project WAR for you.

http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/

by PWHjort on Nov 21, 2009 12:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I actually

Use Pecota as my basis for years forward, but my main question is about using 09 numbers. Is that a factor for determining value right now?

by backtocali on Nov 21, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i use a 4/2/1 weighted average of the last 3 years, then give the player an extra .5 WAR for each season until they turn 27, and take away .5 WAR for each year after 32

by sfbennett1 on Nov 21, 2009 8:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I go 5/4/3 projection for his following season then just sort fudge the remaining years as I see fit

Haven’t thought about a good aging curve, though I usually bump .5 then drop it a little afterwards. Nevertheless, I have never used current season WAR as part of the calculation of future value, I can’t see that being right.

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.

by SFiercex4 on Nov 21, 2009 11:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Only use future expected performance.

You’re right, the past doesn’t matter (for this).

Just like if you’re using this at the trade deadline, you only want to project value for the rest of the current season (plus future seasons). If a guy’s a 6 WAR player year in and year out, you’d only expect (about) 3 WAR from him after the trade.

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by Sky Kalkman on Nov 22, 2009 12:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Sky

Thats what I thought, but when I saw the number that came up for a guy like Josh Johnson, for 2 years no less. It just looked a little low.

Is it possible that Josh Johnson only has $17 million in surplus value? Thats not even worth a top 50 hitting prospect.

Of course we all know that GM’s dont use a system like this. Its a great “in a vaccum” model, but it doesnt factor in things like demand, need, desperation, etc. This is where Josh Johnson then gets the Fish a top prospect, as well as some other pieces probably in a trade.

by backtocali on Nov 22, 2009 8:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The problem is the 40/60/80 arbitration guess

Johnson isn’t going to make $13M this season in arb. It’s going to be more like $4-5M, but the guess at 5 WAR would be something like $13M. So using better guesses for the arbitration salaries is important. I messed that up with doing Hardy’s value for my article, because I was not familiar with how much either Hardy or Gomez would make.

Truthfully, the 40/60/80 guess is decent for players who haven’t hit arbitration yet, but for players who have already had a season or so, customized guesses are the right call. As we all know, arb salaries are largely based on precedent and previous salary (if the player already hit arb).

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.

by SFiercex4 on Nov 22, 2009 6:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd love to see a post on this

some general guidlines to follow –
like above average postion players in second year – multiply by 1.5, then 1.5 again for next year.
a below average pitcher in final year- multiply by 1.2.

etc.

Then you’d obviously have to make adjustments for guys like Lincecum, etc.

I don’t know how hard this would be to do, but for someone more familiar with these things it might not be too bad. Anyway, just a thought, in case someone needed an idea of what to write about.

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 24, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A list of past arbitration awards would be quite helpful.

Like with everything, I’m guessing position, fielding, and walks get underrated in arbitration, while AVG and RBI get overrated. (See: Ryan Howard’s huge arbitration award.)

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by Sky Kalkman on Nov 25, 2009 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs