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by Tommy Bennett on Nov 15, 2009 3:44 PM EST

2010 CHONE hitter projections are live. Gentlemen, start your spreadsheets. Here are the free agents.

Why game theory promises more than it can deliver. How often do you think, "we could solve this problem if only we had the right data"? It may not be true.

Bill Simmons does not enjoy following baseball. He blames the (wrong) numbers.

Some fool went and actually read the CBA. The Red Sox have not gone to arbitration (pre-FA or FA) since Theo Epstein became GM.

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Great stuff again Tommy

by vivaelpujols on Nov 15, 2009 4:54 PM EST reply actions

CHONE projections already? Looks like my day tomorrow is consumed.

Fire Jim Leyland

And now at Beyond the Boxscore and Project Prospect!

by Mike Rogers on Nov 15, 2009 6:34 PM EST reply actions

I am really trying to decided to just go with them, or wait to more is out and do a consensus one of 5-6. After seeing how Tango’s predictor challenge went, the consensus crushed everyone else, I figure that is the best approach.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 15, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions

If only all the projection systems could be organized to launch the same week (like one a day or something) … it’d be like Christmas.

Fire Jim Leyland

And now at Beyond the Boxscore and Project Prospect!

by Mike Rogers on Nov 15, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions

So far we have Bill James and CHONE.

I think you’re right on this one Jeff, wait it out. But I’m running low on everyday material on my blog and throwing up CHONE for Marlins players seems like an easy article to me!

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.

by SFiercex4 on Nov 16, 2009 9:13 AM EST up reply actions

Dan Szymborski has started his ZiPS

Over at BBTF

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Nov 16, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

Oh Bill Simmons

The king of thinking backwards (i.e. "Oh, this thing doesn’t agree with me, I’m going to trash it completely)

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Nov 15, 2009 7:40 PM EST reply actions

I still like him, but I noticed in that interview that he was doing a lot of "my hindsight is awesome" shit.

Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Come attend Intro to Sabermetrics 101!
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.

by SFiercex4 on Nov 16, 2009 9:12 AM EST up reply actions

I enjoy Simmons.

He’s by no means a stats guy, and the amount of BPro mentions in his book is somewhat laughable, but he’s entertaining.

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 16, 2009 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

Are the hitters not updated with Chone from their 2009 projections

No Betancourt with KC and we still have Gload

Actually a trade I would take

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Nov 15, 2009 11:06 PM EST reply actions

The settlement of arbitration disputes bears the same relationship to actual arbitration hearings

as settlement of lawsuits bears to actual trials. In each case, the process is unpleasant (though for different reasons) and there are thus very strong incentives to come to some kind of deal ahead of time.

It doesn’t surprise me to learn that 98% of arbitration cases are settled before hearing, or that the Red Sox have settled every case they’ve had. That’s not a critique of the piece, just to say that its findings are in line with what I’d have expected.

It does seem to me that some teams are notable hard-asses when it comes to arbitration, and the example that leaps to mind is the Marlins. Their skinflint attitude leads to a lot of hearings, and the way arbitration hearings go, probably a lot of discontent among their players. If Dan Uggla is nursing a grudge against his employer, it might well stem from their hearing last February.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Nov 16, 2009 3:43 AM EST reply actions

The settlement of arbitration disputes bears the same relationship to actual arbitration hearings
as settlement of lawsuits bears to actual trials. In each case, the process is unpleasant (though for different reasons) and there are thus very strong incentives to come to some kind of deal ahead of time.

That may be true, although I have not tested it.

The really interesting question is whether the cases that do make it to a hearing conform to the Priest-Klein hypothesis. See Priest and Klein, 13 J. Legal Stud. 1.

by Tommy Bennett on Nov 16, 2009 8:46 AM EST up reply actions