2010 UZR Projections - Updated 11/15/09

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Nov 14, 2009 1:46 PM EST Comment 34 comments

Note: I posted a spreadsheet on 11/14/09 that was not age adjusted. I would prefer for people to used the new age-adjusted spreadsheet. I posted it at 9:30 MST on 11/15/09, but will be leaving the non-age-adjusted one available. Sorry for this inconvenience. --Jeff

I created UZR projections for the 2010 season and the values are available on Google Documents Spreadsheet (original non age adjusted spreadsheet). I got 4 years worth of UZR numbers from Fangraphs. Then I did a 5-4-3-2 yearly weighting regressed to 125 games with a -0.7UZR aging factor (article where the math is explained).

I selected for the worksheet any players that played in at least 63 games at the position over the last 4 years. Some retired players are included, but I don't want to make any judgment on whether they will come back and play. Also, for players who played in less than 63 games, I added their UZR value if it was greater than 1 or less than -1. Sorry for the lack of team-wide charts, but I might add them near the beginning of the season once rosters are more finalized. Please let me know if you have any questions about the data. Here are a couple charts of the projected leaders and laggards at each position (players that played that position in 2009).

Leaders

Position	Name	Projected UZR
1B	Albert Pujols	5.5
2B	Chase Utley	11.0
3B	Evan Longoria	11.0
SS	Adam Everett	8.6
RF	Austin Kearns	8.3
CF	Franklin Gutierrez	14.8
LF	Carl Crawford	9.8

Laggards (glad my Royals keep trading for such great glove men)

Position	Name	Projected UZR
1B	Mike Jacobs	-5.6
2B	Kelly Johnson	-5.2
3B	Ryan Braun	-12.4
SS	Yuniesky Betancourt	-9.7
RF	Brad Hawpe	-19.3
CF	Jacoby Ellsbury	-9.0
LF	Adam Dunn	-13.4

Help with downloading the file after the Jump

A couple of people have asked, so the spreadsheet can be downloaded by going to "File" -> "Download as" and then selecting desired file type.

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Comments

Sexy

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by Zach Sanders on Nov 14, 2009 1:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Isn't the "Braun at third base" a little meaningless since he isn't going to be playing third?

Other than that, gotta agree with Zach on that one. Hawt. Thanks Jeff.

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by SFiercex4 on Nov 14, 2009 1:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Braun at third.

That seems a little bit like saying that Bengie Molina would have the worst UZR in center field next year.

by NoahJ on Nov 15, 2009 8:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How did I miss Austin Kearns' awesome defense?

by Tommy Bennett on Nov 14, 2009 1:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Tango's Fan Scouting Report

has been rating Kearns as one of the best RF in baseball for a few years now. Too bad Kearns’ defense doesn’t come close to making up for him being an offensive black hole.

by Past a Diving Vidro on Nov 14, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i think kearns is a prime candidate for a return to at least average offensive performance.

last year his BA was below the mendoza line at .195, but his obp was .331. the guy had a 15.5% walk rate. kearns is a prime example of the consequences of a year or two of unlucky BABIP (08: .251 , 09: .258). he’s hitting the ball hard (08 ld% – 21.1%; 09 – 18.7%).

if his babip regresses to normal, changing nothing about his 09 performance, he could have a .360 or .370 OBP. combined with good defense, he’s a steal.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Nov 14, 2009 7:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dunn

There’s no way Dunn is going to play more than a handful of innings — if even that much — in the Nationals’ OF in 2010. An honest assessment is going to require you to project him strictly as a 1B, small sample size and all.

by Past a Diving Vidro on Nov 14, 2009 1:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Freaking A Awesome

Thanks, Jeff

godfather of futureredbirds.net

by erik on Nov 14, 2009 2:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Is that projected UZR or UZR_150?

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by cwyers on Nov 14, 2009 2:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just UZR

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Nov 14, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Are you also projected DG/exO?

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by cwyers on Nov 14, 2009 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How many innings are projected?

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 14, 2009 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is just a simple projection, that would be the equivalent of just doing HR's for hitters

This is the value that the player should be at after the a season. I might do more data with more complexity later.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Nov 14, 2009 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

would there be an easy way to get uzr/150 using the 4 year playing time column?

something like (uzr/(#games/4)*150)? Or would that not work?

by lookatthosetwins on Nov 14, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What you need to do first is figure out how many DG the projection is for.

Basically, do the same 5/4/3/2 weighted average but with DG instead of UZR.

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by cwyers on Nov 15, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

See Data Differently.
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by Justin Bopp on Nov 14, 2009 2:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

As Borat would say...

“Very nice!!!!”

by chuckb on Nov 14, 2009 4:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for this

Why are you projecting Alexei Rameriz at 2B?

"Oh well back to work"

by Tdogg on Nov 14, 2009 4:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I took any position they played more than 63 games at over the last 4 years.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Nov 14, 2009 6:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't You Think You Might Be Regressing Too Much?

Seems to me you have way too few really bad or really good and thus way to many right around average.

by giantsrainman on Nov 15, 2009 1:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's going to be true of nearly any sophisticated projection

Because it’s just about impossible to tell which players will be the outliers. You’ll be more accurate in the aggregate doing it this way, but you probably will be wrong about the values at the top and bottom.

by Tommy Bennett on Nov 15, 2009 10:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs