Chart of the Day: Playoff Odds based on BtB Power Rankings

by JinAZ on Oct 8, 2009 6:00 AM EDT in Power Rankings Comment 19 comments

The BtB Power Rankings are based on an estimated, theoretical winning percentage (I call it Team Quality Index, or TQI) for each team based on their component statistics and an adjustment for league quality. If we use TQI as an estimate of a team's true talent level (i.e. their quality), we can use those numbers to predict how teams will fare against one another in the playoffs (I used the odds ratio). Here are those numbers:

The Yankees lead our power rankings, and so it's not a surprise to see them favored against every team. The most even matches in the playoffs are between the two NL West teams (Rockies & Dodgers), as well as between the Phillies and the Twins.

"On paper" playoff predictions (prior to yesterday's action...):

ALDS: Yankees over Twins, Red Sox over Angels
NLDS: Dodgers over Cardinals, Rockies over Phillies
ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox
NLCS: Rockies over Dodgers (by a fraction of a percentage...)
World Series: Yankees over Rockies

A final review of the regular season power rankings, featuring the data upon which above table is based, is forthcoming. :)

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Comments

The St. Louis line is the most surprising.

You’d figure Pujols was worth like 25% on his own.

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Oct 8, 2009 10:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

St. Louis

Of all of the teams, St. Louis may be the one I’m underestimating the most, simply because the team quality estimate is based on season stats, and they are not the same team they were before they acquired Holliday et al mid-season. The Phillies are similar, though, in that they only had Cliff Lee for a half-season. The Twins might be overestimated due to the loss of Morneau. etc, etc.

These are imperfect estimates for those and a number of other reasons. But I tend to think that they’re better estimates of who will win the match-ups than if you went strictly based on team wins, for example.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore
Red Reporter
Basement-Dwellers.com
Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Oct 8, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's something wrong with this because the Twins had nowhere near a 38% chance to beat the Yankees.

It’s a lot closer to 20%

by lailaihei on Oct 8, 2009 1:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think its a game by game basis

and its pretty accurate then. For the series, I had them at about 26% before yesterday, and about 16% now.

by lookatthosetwins on Oct 8, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone know the Vegas lines for the series's?

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 8, 2009 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Vegas Watch

http://vegaswatch.net/2009/10/ds-previews.html

Are “Pinnacle Series” lines the vegas lines? I don’t gamble, so I don’t really know how to read those.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore
Red Reporter
Basement-Dwellers.com
Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Oct 8, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dammit, don't know how to read those either

Where’s Pete Rose when you need him?

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 8, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

-152 means you need to bet 152 dollars to make 100
+152 means you will win 152 dollars if you bet 100.

It’s pretty ridiculous, you need different formulas for the + vs. the -.

by lookatthosetwins on Oct 8, 2009 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also, there will be a gap,

so the odds will be like ~~125 for one team and 115 for another. That’s how they guarantee their money. So I’d take the average of them (120) to decide what the odds are. 120/(100120)= .5455 for the "~~" team, 4545 for the “+” team. Hope that helps.

by lookatthosetwins on Oct 9, 2009 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure how that happened.

by lookatthosetwins on Oct 9, 2009 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Pete, I will hopefully get the odds figure out sometime today.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 9, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Certainly not in the HOF

zing.

by KindredSprites on Oct 9, 2009 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

rec'd

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore
Red Reporter
Basement-Dwellers.com
Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Oct 9, 2009 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We should start an MLB Playoff Pick'em league.

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Oct 8, 2009 2:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm confused

Is this for a 5-game series? Surely the percentage numbers are more exaggerated away from 50% in longer series.

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Oct 8, 2009 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs