Playoff Games of the Day (10/7/2009) - Analysis and Discussion

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 7, 2009 10:31 AM EDT in Game of the Week Comment 44 comments

BtB is going with one thread for all of today's games, scheduled for seven minutes past 2:30, 6:00, and 9:30 EDT. Feel free to jump in and out throughout the day.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies

Home Plate Umpire - Gerry Davis

Gerry is a hitter's umpire. Of the 72 umpires that umpired over 20 games in 2009, he ranked 20th in runs scored per game, allowed the 29th highest total in BB/game and the 7th lowest number of strikeouts per game (thanks to The Spread for this data). Here is a look at his strike zone for left and right handed hitters:

Jdrhh_medium

Jdlhh_medium

Defense

I will be using a regressed weighted average to get the UZR values for the starting players (data to be published after lineups released).

Phillies10_7_medium

Rockies_medium

Lineups

For each batter, I generated a projected true talent level in OBP, SLG, and wOBA vs RHP and LHP. For these values I used a weight of 1/3 for 2009 season regressed to 500 AB and 2/3 2009 Marcels projections. Also, there has been shown a penalty for players coming off the bench to hit. For all the non-starting players, their numbers show this penalty. For the lineup information, I will be using baseballmusings.com's lineup generator to get a projected number of runs scored (data to be published after lineups released).

Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees

Home Plate Umpire - Tim Tschida

Tim is an extreme hitter's umpire. Of the 72 umpires that umpired over 20 games in 2009, he ranked 3rd in runs scored per game, allowed the 3rd highest total in BB/game and the 15th lowest number of strikeouts per game (thanks to The Spread for this data). Here is a look at his strike zone for left and right handed hitters:

Ttrhh_medium

Ttlhh_medium

Defense

I will be using a regressed weighted average to get the UZR values for the starting players (data to be published after lineups released).

Team	Total UZR
Yankees	-7.5
Twins	-11.8

Lineups

For each batter, I generated a projected true talent level in OBP, SLG, and wOBA vs RHP and LHP. For these values I used a weight of 1/3 for 2009 season regressed to 500 AB and 2/3 2009 Marcels projections. Also, there has been shown a penalty for players coming off the bench to hit. For all the non-starting players, their numbers show this penalty. For the lineup information, I will be using baseballmusings.com's lineup generator to get a projected number of runs scored (data to be published after lineups released).

Twins

		Starting
		OBP	SLG	wOBA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
		vs RHP	vs RHP	vs RHP	vs LHH	vs LHH	vs LHH
2 Denard Span	L/L	0.388	0.449	0.378	0.372	0.398	0.344
18 Orlando Cabrera	R/R	0.333	0.404	0.334	0.360	0.407	0.345
7 Joe Mauer	L/R	0.425	0.488	0.412	0.396	0.437	0.374
5 Michael Cuddyer	R/R	0.341	0.455	0.366	0.368	0.458	0.376
16 Jason Kubel	L/R	0.364	0.471	0.382	0.335	0.420	0.344
21 Delmon Young	R/R	0.331	0.431	0.349	0.358	0.434	0.360
23 Brendan Harris	R/R	0.329	0.422	0.343	0.356	0.425	0.354
20 Matt Tolbert	S/R	0.352	0.408	0.343	0.352	0.408	0.343
8 Nick Punto	S/R	0.342	0.347	0.306	0.342	0.347	0.306
		Pinch Hitting
		OBP	SLG	wOBA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
		vs RHP	vs RHP	vs RHP	vs LHH	vs LHH	vs LHH
19 Justin Huber	R/R	0.269	0.384	0.317	0.296	0.387	0.327
22 Carlos Gomez	R/R	0.24	0.35	0.29	0.27	0.35	0.3
24 Joe Crede	R/R	0.240	0.405	0.319	0.267	0.408	0.329
25 Alexi Casilla	S/R	0.27	0.32	0.28	0.27	0.32	0.28
32 Brian Buscher	L/R	0.3	0.37	0.32	0.27	0.32	0.28
33 Justin Morneau	L/R	0.309	0.459	0.371	0.280	0.408	0.333
55 Mike Redmond	R/R	0.26	0.34	0.29	0.29	0.35	0.3
58 Jose Morales	S/R	0.3	0.39	0.33	0.3	0.39	0.33

Link to Lineup Analysis

Best RPG with Players	5.27
Predicted RPG	5.22
Worst RPG	5.03

Yankees

		Starting
		OBP	SLG	wOBA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
		vs RHP	vs RHP	vs RHP	vs LHH	vs LHH	vs LHH
2 Derek Jeter	R/R	0.357	0.419	0.351	0.384	0.450	0.377
18 Johnny Damon	L/L	0.364	0.452	0.371	0.335	0.401	0.333
25 Mark Teixeira	S/R	0.379	0.517	0.413	0.379	0.517	0.413
13 Alex Rodriguez	R/R	0.365	0.507	0.402	0.392	0.538	0.428
55 Hideki Matsui	L/R	0.368	0.466	0.380	0.371	0.415	0.353
20 Jorge Posada	S/R	0.366	0.468	0.381	0.366	0.468	0.381
24 Robinson Cano	L/R	0.352	0.477	0.381	0.323	0.426	0.343
33 Nick Swisher	S/L	0.355	0.443	0.363	0.355	0.443	0.363
53 Melky Cabrera	S/L	0.334	0.381	0.322	0.346	0.412	0.343
		Pinch Hitting
		OBP	SLG	wOBA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
		vs RHP	vs RHP	vs RHP	vs LHH	vs LHH	vs LHH
11 Brett Gardner	L/L	0.266	0.364	0.304	0.237	0.313	0.266
14 Eric Hinske	L/R	0.269	0.407	0.329	0.240	0.356	0.291
17 Jerry Hairston Jr.	R/R	0.238	0.343	0.283	0.265	0.374	0.310
19 Ramiro Pena	S/R	0.214	0.269	0.235	0.214	0.269	0.235
26 Jose Molina	R/R	0.207	0.300	0.249	0.234	0.331	0.276
28 Shelley Duncan	R/R	0.235	0.358	0.291	0.262	0.389	0.317
29 Francisco Cervelli	R/R	0.249	0.361	0.297	0.276	0.392	0.324
47 Freddy Guzman	S/R	0.251	0.353	0.293	0.251	0.353	0.293
72 Juan Miranda	L/L	0.286	0.399	0.331	0.257	0.348	0.293

Link to lineup analysis

	Runs per Game
Max	5.69
Predicted	5.59
Min	5.37

St Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Home Plate Umpire - Dana DeMuth

Dana is a hitter's umpire. Of the 72 umpires that umpired over 20 games in 2009, he ranked 18th in runs scored per game, allowed the 24th highest total in BB/game and the 29th lowest number of strikeouts per game (thanks to The Spread for this data). Here is a look at his strike zone for left and right handed hitters:

Ddrhh_medium

Ddlhh_medium

Defense

I will be using a regressed weighted average to get the UZR values for the starting players (data to be published after lineups released).

I am out for the night so for the defense you will need to reference: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/10/3/1067936/playoff-teams-defense-analysis-how

Lineups

For each batter, I generated a projected true talent level in OBP, SLG, and wOBA vs RHP and LHP. For these values I used a weight of 1/3 for 2009 season regressed to 500 AB and 2/3 2009 Marcels projections. Also, there has been shown a penalty for players coming off the bench to hit. For all the non-starting players, their numbers show this penalty. For the lineup information, I will be using baseballmusings.com's lineup generator to get a projected number of runs scored (data to be published after lineups released).

Here is the spreadsheet for the lineups for this game.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ApDc5PGsBzgVdDVNMmRZcXFfWjhTUVJMZHV4OGpXUHc&hl=en

1 recs | Comment 44 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Interesting on the umps

All four so far have been hitters’ umpires. If I were into conspiracy theories, I’d say MLB wants to see some scoring.

Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2009 10:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It doesn't take black helicopters and alien inplants to think that the MLB wants to see some scoring.

See: the past 40 years.

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Oct 7, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking the same thing last night

All three of these umps really call the inside part of the plate when left handers are up.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 7, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The strikezones on these charts seem a little large...

The plate is 17" wide with a 1/2" of black on each side (18" total). The ball is about 3" wide, and since PITCHf/x charts the center of the ball, you can add half of that to each side – which comes out to be 3".

That’s a total strikezone width of 20 1/2". These charts are marked at over 28 3/4" wide, assuming the widths are in feet (I used 1.2 feet as the mark).

I’m sure that with a normal strike zone, these umpires don’t look quite so hitter friendly.

Searching for a way to predict injuries - TexasLeaguers.com

by NoNameOnCard on Oct 7, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I suck at math...

Total strikezone should be 21" wide, not 20 1/2"… but it’s still a long way from 28 3/4" which gives almost 4" outside the zone to each side of the plate.

Searching for a way to predict injuries - TexasLeaguers.com

by NoNameOnCard on Oct 7, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I run the 1.2 which is what the homeplate umpires are judged on.

I could use 1.0 like some people do.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 7, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's a bit generous.

1.0 still gives almost 2 inches to each edge. My concern is that hitters shouldn’t be (and aren’t) expected to defend 29" of plate when it’s only 17" wide.

If the argument is to be made that the umpires are hitter friendly, the charts should reflect what a hitter is responsible for protecting, not what an umpire is grading on.

Searching for a way to predict injuries - TexasLeaguers.com

by NoNameOnCard on Oct 7, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

*graded

Searching for a way to predict injuries - TexasLeaguers.com

by NoNameOnCard on Oct 7, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All umps call the strike zone wider than the actual plate.

I think from Harry average MLB zone is about 24 inches wide. So hitters ump vs. pitchers’ ump is just compared to the MLB average. Every ump would come across as a pitchers’ ump if you graded them against the rulebook zone (at least horizontally).

Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not what I'm saying.

If you make the zone bigger, everyone looks like a pitcher’s umpire… and that’s basically what’s happening in these charts.

The trick is to find something in between the rulebook definition and something so big that everyone is a pitcher’s umpire.

Searching for a way to predict injuries - TexasLeaguers.com

by NoNameOnCard on Oct 7, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The problem is that these are very much pitcher umpires.

The zones should expand out once some of the pitcher friendly umpires are used

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 7, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

*hitter's umpire

I’m way off today.

Searching for a way to predict injuries - TexasLeaguers.com

by NoNameOnCard on Oct 7, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jeff's also given the rankings of these umps in terms of runs per game and bb per game.

Jeff, how about sharing the charts of some umps that come out as pitchers’ umpires so we can compare?

Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My point isn't whether or not they are hitter's or pitcher's umpires.

The stats reveal that the umpires do, in fact, favor the hitters. That’s fine.

My concern is that the accompanying strike zone charts show extremely large numbers of ball calls inside the zone with almost zero strike calls outside the zone. Obviously, this correlates extremely well with someone who is declared a hitter’s umpire.

The point is that even a pitcher’s umpire will look like a hitter’s umpire based on the dimensions selected for the strike zone.

As for the actual size of the strike zone, I think 1.0 is a much better representation of the actual edges of the plate. It gives the umpires room for error and is a reasonable width for hitters to defend.

Searching for a way to predict injuries - TexasLeaguers.com

by NoNameOnCard on Oct 7, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why are you so sure about this?

The point is that even a pitcher’s umpire will look like a hitter’s umpire based on the dimensions selected for the strike zone.

I mean, you could be right, but since we haven’t seen any pitcher-friendly charts yet, we’re not sure.

Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here is the vs RHH for Runge, a hitter's umpire

In his case, he definitely expands the zone up and down. He also calls inside and outside pitches.

Also look at the last two vs LHH and they expand past the zone.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 7, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hitters ump or pitchers ump?

Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here is the Title of the graph:

Here is the vs RHH for Runge, a hitter’s umpire

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 7, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I assume you're trying to tell me that the graphs can be misleading...

If that’s the case, why use them at all?

Searching for a way to predict injuries - TexasLeaguers.com

by NoNameOnCard on Oct 7, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Make your picks guys. Pick the winner and the WPA player of the game.

1. Winner: Philly
WPA PoG: Cliff Lee

2. Winner: NYY
WPA PoG: CC Sabathia

3. Winner: Cards
WPA PoG: Ludwick

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Oct 7, 2009 11:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

1. Winner: Colorado
WPA PoG: Hawpe — out to look that sand box

2. Winner: NYY
WPA PoG: Texeria

3. Winner: Cards
WPA PoG: Carpender

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 7, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1. Winner: Philly
WPA PoG: Cliff Lee

2. Winner: NYY
WPA PoG: Alex Rodriguez

3. Winner: Dodgers
WPA PoG: Manny

by yankee13man on Oct 7, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The wind

At The Bank in Philly is blowing toward right field. However, the pitchers are both lefties.

What does this mean? I have no idea.

by Tommy Bennett on Oct 7, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Tigers didn't make the playoffs

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 7, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It means we're going to see some home runs.

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Oct 7, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am dumb

Jimenez is a righty.

by Tommy Bennett on Oct 7, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

After doing the lineup generator, I am surprised Gonzalez and Hawpe aren't switched vs LHP

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 7, 2009 1:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Very minor point

I think the date in the title should be October 7th, not 6th. :)
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore
Red Reporter
Basement-Dwellers.com
Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Oct 7, 2009 2:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks - corrected.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 7, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have to listen to the first game on the Radio

Anyone know if the Philly or Colorado announcers are better?

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 7, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have been using the z key to clear them out

Let me see what I can do with the colors

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 7, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 7, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by Justin Bopp on Oct 7, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Especially when your team is up 5-0

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 7, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I had to choose, I'd pick

“having a team that is in the playoffs and is up 5-0, but I have to work”

over

“The Royals fired…wait. They didn’t fire anybody?”

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Oct 7, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed

Search

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) about 11 hours ago 0 comments | 0 recs

Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Network Bar

Beyond the Box Score -