Game of the Day: Tigers @ Twins (10/6/2009) - Analysis and Discussion

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Welcome to BtB's pre-game analysis of the playoff game between the Minnesota Twinkies and the the Detroit Tiggers (sorry, the Royals fan in me is still bitter both teams just beat us out for a playoff chance).  This postseason, BtB plans on having a gameday thread for each game along with some advanced analysis.  I will be putting up umpire, lineup and defensive analysis.

Lineups

TIGERS (86-76)

1. Curtis Granderson, CF
2. Placido Polanco, 2B
3. Magglio Ordonez, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Carlos Guillen, DH
6. Ryan Raburn, LF
7. Brandon Inge, 3B
8. Gerald Laird, C
9. Ramon Santiago, SS

TWINS (86-76)

1. Denard Span, CF
2. Orlando Cabrera, SS
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Jason Kubel, RF
5. Michael Cuddyer, 1B
6. Delmon Young, LF
7. Jose Morales, DH
8. Matt Tolbert, 3B
9. Nick Punto, 2B

Full analysis after the jump.

Home Plate Umpire

I will not be arguing balls and strikes, more I want to show where each individual umpire calls ball and strikes vs right and left handed pitchers.  It will be more of a heads up on what type of strike zone to expect and where pitchers will need to locate in order to have the most success.

Randy Marsh

Randy is very much a hitter's umpire.  Of the 72 umpires that umpired over 20 games in 2009, he ranked 11th in runs scored per game, allowed the 11th highest total in BB/game and second lowest number of strikeouts per game (thanks to The Spread for this data).  Here is a look at his strike zone for left and right handed hitters:

Rmrhh_medium 

Rmlhh_medium

Randy doesn't like to call the inside strike or anything low.  For strikes today, pitchers will need to locate to the middle and outside.

Defense

I will be using a regressed weighted average to get the UZR values for the starting players (data to be published after lineups released).

Graphs of the team's defenses:

Detroit_medium


Minn_medium

UZR Totals for the teams:

Team Total UZR
Detroit 19.4
Minnesota -11.8


Lineups

For each batter, I generated a projected true talent level in OBP, SLG, and wOBA vs RHP and LHP.  For these values I used a weight of 1/3 for 2009 season regressed to 500 AB and 2/3 2009 Marcels projections.  Also, there has been shown a penalty for players coming off the bench to hit.  For all the non-starting players, their numbers show this penalty.   For the lineup information, I will be using baseballmusings.com's lineup generator to get a projected number of runs scored (data to be published after lineups released).

Sorry, but I found a couple of problems with the lineup analysis I planned on doing, mainly not having Detroit ready to go.  I will make the data available, as soon as I corrected and collected the data.  I know everyone was just sitting next to their computer refreshing for this information, but you will just have to wait.  I hope to have it ready by game time.

Minnesota:



Starting






OBP SLG wOBA OBP SLG wOBA
Name B/T vs RHP vs RHP vs RHP vs LHH vs LHH vs LHH
1. Denard Span, CF L/L 0.388 0.449 0.378 0.372 0.398 0.344
2. Orlando Cabrera, SS R/R 0.333 0.404 0.334 0.360 0.407 0.345
3. Joe Mauer, C L/R 0.425 0.488 0.412 0.396 0.437 0.374
4. Jason Kubel, RF L/R 0.364 0.471 0.382 0.335 0.420 0.344
5. Michael Cuddyer, 1B R/R 0.341 0.455 0.366 0.368 0.458 0.376
6. Delmon Young, LF R/R 0.331 0.431 0.349 0.358 0.434 0.360
7. Jose Morales, DH S/R 0.372 0.429 0.361 0.372 0.429 0.361
8. Matt Tolbert, 3B S/R 0.352 0.408 0.343 0.352 0.408 0.343
9. Nick Punto, 2B S/R 0.342 0.347 0.306 0.342 0.347 0.306


Pinch Hitting






OBP SLG wOBA OBP SLG wOBA


vs RHP vs RHP vs RHP vs LHH vs LHH vs LHH
32 Brian Buscher L/R 0.298 0.367 0.317 0.269 0.316 0.279
33 Justin Morneau L/R 0.309 0.459 0.371 0.280 0.408 0.333
22 Carlos Gomez R/R 0.240 0.351 0.289 0.267 0.354 0.300
23 Brendan Harris R/R 0.255 0.379 0.309 0.282 0.382 0.320
55 Mike Redmond R/R 0.261 0.345 0.292 0.288 0.348 0.303
24 Joe Crede R/R 0.240 0.405 0.319 0.267 0.408 0.329
19 Justin Huber R/R 0.269 0.384 0.317 0.296 0.387 0.327
25 Alexi Casilla S/R 0.267 0.325 0.283 0.267 0.325 0.283

Link to Lineup projections and here is the summary

Best RPG with Players 5.51
Predicted RPG 5.41
Worst RPG 5.13

 

Detroit

I guess better late than never on these:



Starting






OBP SLG wOBA OBP SLG wOBA


vs RHP vs RHP vs RHP vs LHH vs LHH vs LHH
1. Curtis Granderson, CF L/R 0.358 0.484 0.387 0.341 0.433 0.353
2. Placido Polanco, 2B R/R 0.356 0.422 0.352 0.339 0.371 0.318
3. Magglio Ordonez, RF R/R 0.380 0.482 0.393 0.365 0.431 0.360
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B R/R 0.393 0.539 0.429 0.376 0.488 0.395
5. Carlos Guillen, DH S/R 0.371 0.449 0.372 0.371 0.449 0.372
6. Ryan Raburn, LF R/R 0.344 0.453 0.365 0.333 0.402 0.333
7. Brandon Inge, 3B R/R 0.326 0.414 0.338 0.310 0.363 0.304
8. Gerald Laird, C R/R 0.329 0.403 0.333 0.315 0.352 0.300
9. Ramon Santiago, SS S/R 0.359 0.411 0.347 0.359 0.411 0.347


Pinch Hitting






OBP SLG wOBA OBP SLG wOBA


vs RHP vs RHP vs RHP vs LHH vs LHH vs LHH
19 Aubrey Huff L/R 0.273 0.420 0.338 0.267 0.369 0.308
32 Don Kelly L/R 0.270 0.374 0.311 0.266 0.323 0.282
33 Marcus Thames R/R 0.253 0.441 0.343 0.242 0.390 0.311
34 Clete Thomas L/R 0.284 0.387 0.323 0.272 0.336 0.291
4 Adam Everett R/R 0.238 0.328 0.275 0.225 0.277 0.243
55 Dusty Ryan R/R 0.287 0.411 0.337 0.284 0.360 0.308
60 Wilkin Ramirez R/R 0.231 0.351 0.286 0.230 0.300 0.257

 

Link to Lineup projections and here is the summary

Best RPG with Players 5.59
Predicted RPG 5.54
Worst RPG 5.30
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