Game of the Day: Tigers @ Twins (10/6/2009) - Analysis and Discussion
by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 6, 2009 1:48 PM EDT
in Game of the Week
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PrintDetroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, Oct 6, 2009 5:07 PM EDT
Welcome to BtB's pre-game analysis of the playoff game between the Minnesota Twinkies and the the Detroit Tiggers (sorry, the Royals fan in me is still bitter both teams just beat us out for a playoff chance). This postseason, BtB plans on having a gameday thread for each game along with some advanced analysis. I will be putting up umpire, lineup and defensive analysis.
Lineups
TIGERS (86-76)
1. Curtis Granderson, CF
2. Placido Polanco, 2B
3. Magglio Ordonez, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Carlos Guillen, DH
6. Ryan Raburn, LF
7. Brandon Inge, 3B
8. Gerald Laird, C
9. Ramon Santiago, SS
TWINS (86-76)
1. Denard Span, CF
2. Orlando Cabrera, SS
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Jason Kubel, RF
5. Michael Cuddyer, 1B
6. Delmon Young, LF
7. Jose Morales, DH
8. Matt Tolbert, 3B
9. Nick Punto, 2B
Full analysis after the jump.
Home Plate Umpire
I will not be arguing balls and strikes, more I want to show where each individual umpire calls ball and strikes vs right and left handed pitchers. It will be more of a heads up on what type of strike zone to expect and where pitchers will need to locate in order to have the most success.
Randy Marsh
Randy is very much a hitter's umpire. Of the 72 umpires that umpired over 20 games in 2009, he ranked 11th in runs scored per game, allowed the 11th highest total in BB/game and second lowest number of strikeouts per game (thanks to The Spread for this data). Here is a look at his strike zone for left and right handed hitters:
Randy doesn't like to call the inside strike or anything low. For strikes today, pitchers will need to locate to the middle and outside.
Defense
I will be using a regressed weighted average to get the UZR values for the starting players (data to be published after lineups released).
Graphs of the team's defenses:
UZR Totals for the teams:
| Team | Total UZR |
| Detroit | 19.4 |
| Minnesota | -11.8 |
Lineups
For each batter, I generated a projected true talent level in OBP, SLG, and wOBA vs RHP and LHP. For these values I used a weight of 1/3 for 2009 season regressed to 500 AB and 2/3 2009 Marcels projections. Also, there has been shown a penalty for players coming off the bench to hit. For all the non-starting players, their numbers show this penalty. For the lineup information, I will be using baseballmusings.com's lineup generator to get a projected number of runs scored (data to be published after lineups released).
Sorry, but I found a couple of problems with the lineup analysis I planned on doing, mainly not having Detroit ready to go. I will make the data available, as soon as I corrected and collected the data. I know everyone was just sitting next to their computer refreshing for this information, but you will just have to wait. I hope to have it ready by game time.
Minnesota:
| Starting | |||||||
| OBP | SLG | wOBA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | ||
| Name | B/T | vs RHP | vs RHP | vs RHP | vs LHH | vs LHH | vs LHH |
| 1. Denard Span, CF | L/L | 0.388 | 0.449 | 0.378 | 0.372 | 0.398 | 0.344 |
| 2. Orlando Cabrera, SS | R/R | 0.333 | 0.404 | 0.334 | 0.360 | 0.407 | 0.345 |
| 3. Joe Mauer, C | L/R | 0.425 | 0.488 | 0.412 | 0.396 | 0.437 | 0.374 |
| 4. Jason Kubel, RF | L/R | 0.364 | 0.471 | 0.382 | 0.335 | 0.420 | 0.344 |
| 5. Michael Cuddyer, 1B | R/R | 0.341 | 0.455 | 0.366 | 0.368 | 0.458 | 0.376 |
| 6. Delmon Young, LF | R/R | 0.331 | 0.431 | 0.349 | 0.358 | 0.434 | 0.360 |
| 7. Jose Morales, DH | S/R | 0.372 | 0.429 | 0.361 | 0.372 | 0.429 | 0.361 |
| 8. Matt Tolbert, 3B | S/R | 0.352 | 0.408 | 0.343 | 0.352 | 0.408 | 0.343 |
| 9. Nick Punto, 2B | S/R | 0.342 | 0.347 | 0.306 | 0.342 | 0.347 | 0.306 |
| Pinch Hitting | |||||||
| OBP | SLG | wOBA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | ||
| vs RHP | vs RHP | vs RHP | vs LHH | vs LHH | vs LHH | ||
| 32 Brian Buscher | L/R | 0.298 | 0.367 | 0.317 | 0.269 | 0.316 | 0.279 |
| 33 Justin Morneau | L/R | 0.309 | 0.459 | 0.371 | 0.280 | 0.408 | 0.333 |
| 22 Carlos Gomez | R/R | 0.240 | 0.351 | 0.289 | 0.267 | 0.354 | 0.300 |
| 23 Brendan Harris | R/R | 0.255 | 0.379 | 0.309 | 0.282 | 0.382 | 0.320 |
| 55 Mike Redmond | R/R | 0.261 | 0.345 | 0.292 | 0.288 | 0.348 | 0.303 |
| 24 Joe Crede | R/R | 0.240 | 0.405 | 0.319 | 0.267 | 0.408 | 0.329 |
| 19 Justin Huber | R/R | 0.269 | 0.384 | 0.317 | 0.296 | 0.387 | 0.327 |
| 25 Alexi Casilla | S/R | 0.267 | 0.325 | 0.283 | 0.267 | 0.325 | 0.283 |
Link to Lineup projections and here is the summary
| Best RPG with Players | 5.51 |
| Predicted RPG | 5.41 |
| Worst RPG | 5.13 |
Detroit
I guess better late than never on these:
| Starting | |||||||
| OBP | SLG | wOBA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | ||
| vs RHP | vs RHP | vs RHP | vs LHH | vs LHH | vs LHH | ||
| 1. Curtis Granderson, CF | L/R | 0.358 | 0.484 | 0.387 | 0.341 | 0.433 | 0.353 |
| 2. Placido Polanco, 2B | R/R | 0.356 | 0.422 | 0.352 | 0.339 | 0.371 | 0.318 |
| 3. Magglio Ordonez, RF | R/R | 0.380 | 0.482 | 0.393 | 0.365 | 0.431 | 0.360 |
| 4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B | R/R | 0.393 | 0.539 | 0.429 | 0.376 | 0.488 | 0.395 |
| 5. Carlos Guillen, DH | S/R | 0.371 | 0.449 | 0.372 | 0.371 | 0.449 | 0.372 |
| 6. Ryan Raburn, LF | R/R | 0.344 | 0.453 | 0.365 | 0.333 | 0.402 | 0.333 |
| 7. Brandon Inge, 3B | R/R | 0.326 | 0.414 | 0.338 | 0.310 | 0.363 | 0.304 |
| 8. Gerald Laird, C | R/R | 0.329 | 0.403 | 0.333 | 0.315 | 0.352 | 0.300 |
| 9. Ramon Santiago, SS | S/R | 0.359 | 0.411 | 0.347 | 0.359 | 0.411 | 0.347 |
| Pinch Hitting | |||||||
| OBP | SLG | wOBA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | ||
| vs RHP | vs RHP | vs RHP | vs LHH | vs LHH | vs LHH | ||
| 19 Aubrey Huff | L/R | 0.273 | 0.420 | 0.338 | 0.267 | 0.369 | 0.308 |
| 32 Don Kelly | L/R | 0.270 | 0.374 | 0.311 | 0.266 | 0.323 | 0.282 |
| 33 Marcus Thames | R/R | 0.253 | 0.441 | 0.343 | 0.242 | 0.390 | 0.311 |
| 34 Clete Thomas | L/R | 0.284 | 0.387 | 0.323 | 0.272 | 0.336 | 0.291 |
| 4 Adam Everett | R/R | 0.238 | 0.328 | 0.275 | 0.225 | 0.277 | 0.243 |
| 55 Dusty Ryan | R/R | 0.287 | 0.411 | 0.337 | 0.284 | 0.360 | 0.308 |
| 60 Wilkin Ramirez | R/R | 0.231 | 0.351 | 0.286 | 0.230 | 0.300 | 0.257 |
Link to Lineup projections and here is the summary
| Best RPG with Players | 5.59 |
| Predicted RPG | 5.54 |
| Worst RPG | 5.30 |
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Comments
If anyone sees the lineups posted, please post them here so I can do the defensive and lineup work.
Thanks
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
Let's get this party started.
Prediction: Tigers win in a stunner.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
Could one argue that a "hitter's ump"
Will most likely benefit the team with the best batters?
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
Good question.
I would think hitters with better eyes would benefit. One, they let more balls go by anyway and will benefit accidentally. But they could also adjust better to a unique strike zone. Who knows, though.
Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.
Given that Porcello's a sinkerball pitcher, not getting the low strikes is probably bad news for him.
Inside, too, perhaps, assuming his sinker has a lot of tail to it.
Baker I’m not as familiar with, although I think he gives up a lot of fly balls and therefore might work more up in the zone more.
Something interesting to keep an eye on, anyway.
Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.
Good point
Has Porcello “thrown to” Randy Marsh this year?
If so, can we get a chart and a box score for that?
I checked and no
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 6, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously Jeff you do the most amazing work
We were talking over at Viva El Birdos about this very subject about the Ump zones (Dana Demuth) for our upcoming series. You were the first person I thought of than I come over to here and see this.
Thanks and I hope to have themavailable before each game
Let me know if you want it any earlier. I will probably knock them out the night before the game.
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 6, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok, we're on!
Already getting sick of the Cabrera side show. Horrible story, but I think the “is this a distraction?” bit a little annoying.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
New prediction:
Twins, 6-4. Mauer is the player of the game.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
Does Magglio swing at everything
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
I really want to see how Porcello does in the bottom of 1st
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
After one batter,
Porcello on pace to end game in 27 pitches!!!
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
going for 28 now
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 6, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I think they are most beholden to their infield defense.
ie, Hochevar.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
Right, but wouldn't the fast play on 'turf hurt them too?
by Tommy Bennett on Oct 6, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry tommy--completely forgot the infield has a carpet too.
which is a complete abomination, but that’s another discussion.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
Can't be good, he is a catcher
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 6, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
That is his 306th TB so far this season.
by Tommy Bennett on Oct 6, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
side question:
is it still actually “this season” or does this count as post season?
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
I’d try third first. But with those knee and back issues, it seems like an easy call to me. That bat is too valuable.
by Walter Fulbright on Oct 6, 2009 5:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm out for a bit, got to go to a meeting. I am tempted to have someone call for me during it, but will save it for games later
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
Why does he keep saying 'fisted' instead of jammed?
- on the list of things announcers should not say.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
Scott Baker has a legitimate complaint about this strike zone.
by Walter Fulbright on Oct 6, 2009 5:34 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
he really just needs to keep it inside. did you see that spread above?
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
wish I could watch, I am doing the radio and gameday combo
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 6, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Bert Circled?
I certainly hope so.
by Walter Fulbright on Oct 6, 2009 6:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Rick is not going to let Mauer beat him is he?
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
I thought he wasn't even trying to throw strikes
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 6, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you see Cabrera's home run?
He really smacked the hell out of it.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
That Kubel Shot Hit My House
And I live in Kansas City.
by Walter Fulbright on Oct 6, 2009 6:52 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Well, the holes in the Metrodome's wall must be why it is being closed.
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 6, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Finally finished the Detroit lineups -- looks actually pretty even
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
Nice effort by Cuddyer. If he had been hustling it would have been an inside the parker
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
I'm watching the game on recording, so I'm not looking at the comments yet
But I wanted to say that these previews are terrific. Really helps me get up to speed on teams. I love that you’re providing poor-man Marcels for hitters, in particular. Umpire assessment is neat too, and will be fun to watch.
I would love to see some pitcher data, even if just IP, K/9, bb/9, hr/9, and tERA (or even just FIP) for the starter. Just a suggestion. :)
-j
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