Who Actually Had the Biggest Comeback in 2009?

by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 5, 2009 7:18 PM EDT

It's award season, and the NL and AL Comeback Awards winners were announced earlier today. Congrats to Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals and Aaron Hill of the Blue Jays for winning the award. It is supposed to go to the players that "re-emerged on the baseball field during a given season."

I decided to take the balloting results and compare the player's WAR from this year, a recent low year and a recent high. Then. I took the total swing in WAR from the high to the low to this season's WAR value . For example Aaron Hill had 3.5 WAR in 2007, 0.5 in 2008 and then 4.2 this year for a total swing of 6.7 WAR ((3.5 WAR -0.5WAR)+(4.2 WAR - 0.5 WAR).

NL Comeback Award Comparison

Here is a comparison of the vote getters in the NL:

Voting Rank	Name and Team	High Year	Previous High (WAR)	Low Year	Lowest Between High and 2009 (WAR)	2009 WAR	Total Swing in WAR
1	Chris Carpenter, STL	2006	5.2	2007	0.2	5.6	10.4
2	Yovani Gallardo, MIL	2007	2.6	2008	0.4	2.8	4.6
3	Josh Johnson, FLA	2006	2.5	2007	0.2	5.3	7.4
4	Todd Helton, COL	2007	4.9	2008	1.5	3.5	5.4
5	Aaron Boone, HOU	2007	0.3	2008	-0.2	-0.3	0.4
6	Pedro Martinez, PHI	2007	1.2	2008	0.1	0.6	1.6
7	Luis Castillo, NYM	2007	2.4	2008	0.6	1.4	2.6
8	Jeff Weaver, LAD	2007	0.9	2008	0	0.6	1.5
9	Jonny Gomes, CIN	2007	0	2008	-1.2	0.8	3.2
10	Peter Moylan, ATL	2007	0.6	2008	0	1.5	2.1
11	Mike MacDougal, WSH	2007	0.2	2008	0.1	-0.2	-0.2

NL Observations and the AL Comparisons after the jump

NL observations:

The voters got the winner correct.
The voters also got the next four correct with the exception of Gallardo being a little high
The wasn't a whole lot to choose from after the first 4.
In two cases the players WAR value did not increase in 2009 from the previous years. In one case, Aaron Boone had open heart surgery this off season and even getting on the field should warrant some votes. I have no clue how Mike MacDougal end up with votes.

AL Comeback Award Comparison

Now here is a comparison of the vote getters in the AL:

Voting Rank	Name and Team	High Year	Previous High (WAR)	Low Year	Lowest Between High and 2009 (WAR)	2009 WAR	Total Swing in WAR
1	Aaron Hill, TOR	2007	3.5	2008	0.5	4.2	6.7
2	Victor Martinez, BOS	2007	5.1	2008	0.9	4.8	8.1
3	Michael Cuddyer, MIN	2007	2.1	2008	-0.2	2.1	4.6
4	Jorge Posada, NYY	2007	7.1	2008	0.8	4	9.5
5	Russell Branyan, SEA	2006	1.1	2007	0.5	2.8	2.9
6	Scott Podsednik, CWS	2005	1.4	2006	-0.5	1.5	3.9
7	Juan Rivera, LAA	2006	2.7	2008	-0.7	3.5	7.6
8	Rajai Davis, OAK	2007	1	2008	0.6	3.5	3.3
9	Andruw Jones, TEX	2007	3.6	2008	-0.9	0.7	6.1
10	Travis Hafner, CLE	2007	2.2	2008	-0.8	1.1	4.9
11	Fernando Rodney, DET	2007	0.7	2008	0.4	0.3	0.2

Observations on the voting for the AL Comeback Award:

The winner here did not have the largest swing in WAR, Hill was actually 4 in total swing behind Posada, Martinez, and Rivera.
The swing values in the AL were much more than in the NL on average. There was only one swing value of less than 2.9 in the AL, but 6 in the NL.
I need to look back over 5 years to see the comeback of Scott Podsednik. He has the following WAR values from 2005 to 2009: 1.4, -0.5,-0.1, -0.4, 1.5
Fernando Rodney, like Aaron Boone and Mike MacDougal got votes for actually being worse this year than last year.
There seems to be a lot of love for Russell Branyan despite being having the 9th highest swing in WAR.

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Comments

Where's Joel Pineiro in this discussion?

His high prior to ‘09 was 3.8 WAR and his low between ’03 and this season came in ’06 and ’07 when he registered just 0.6 WAR. Indeed, he hasn’t been above 0.9 WAR since 2005 but pulled out a 4.8 this season. Total swing — 7.4 WAR, tied w/ Josh Johnson for 2nd place. I can’t believe he got no votes!!!!!!

by chuckb on Oct 5, 2009 8:45 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

If I was to guess, people didn't remeber back to 2002/2003.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 5, 2009 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Good Catch Chuck

I think Joel should be a part of this discussion too, though Carp deserved it by far. My problem with using swing though is that it undervalues players that never had a huge season before.

"Come test me every day if you want," says Pujols, "Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught."

by StLHugo on Oct 5, 2009 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions

That's the point

If they haven’t had a huge season before, they aren’t “coming back”. They’re just “coming.”

by lookatthosetwins on Oct 6, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

wow, that sounds weird when I read it again. Oh well.

by lookatthosetwins on Oct 6, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

is pineiro really a comeback though?

i mean, he is definitely improved, but it’s not like he is on an elite level once again. this is his first time really. and his slump down the stretch probably hurt him. but no votes at all is a bit baffling.

"I throw him four wide ones then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on Stan Musial

by Shi on Oct 5, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe Piñeiro should be more of a targer for a "break out season" type award?

Is there such an award?

Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.

by mattybobo on Oct 6, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Me neither

He should of been on this list. Why do they have MIke McDougal? WHY?

Formerly The_Fan

by Mr.Fan on Oct 7, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll tell you how McDougal got votes

He recorded 20 of 21 save opps this year (I’m sort of guessing, I think he’s in that ballpark)! That’s a lot of saves! He didn’t get saves last year! He used to get saves before! Saves are awesome!

(Never mind that he walked 38 people and struck out 34 in 54 innings)

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Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.

by SFiercex4 on Oct 5, 2009 9:08 PM EDT reply actions

Ehh

I don’t think they value saves as much as more as they used to before MoneyBall. It is hard for a pitcher to get comeback player of the year before, yet alone a closer.

Formerly The_Fan

by Mr.Fan on Oct 7, 2009 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Cool analysis.

In general, why is Jorge’s season not getting more play?

I wonder if Hill got bonus points for his type of injury?

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by Sky Kalkman on Oct 5, 2009 10:09 PM EDT reply actions

I would assume so

Did anyone think Martinez might never play again?

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Oct 7, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Michael Bourn...anyone?

The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by Stephen Higdon on Oct 6, 2009 11:25 PM EDT reply actions

Just adding the downswing to the upswing seems like bad methodology

If a guy went from 10 to 0 to 1, he’d have a total swing of 11 which would be massive compared to these candidates, but you’d never consider him for the award. Then again if a guy went from 1 to 0 to 10 you’d give him the breakout award instead of the comeback award.

They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.

by Torgen on Oct 7, 2009 3:19 PM EDT reply actions