Playoff Teams Defense Analysis - How They Got There and What to Expect - National League Edition

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 3, 2009 7:18 PM EDT in Graph of the Day Comment 14 comments

With the increased emphasis on defense the last few years, I figured I would look at what playoff teams did statistically during the season and what can be expected of the teams in the playoffs. We will begin with the National League and look at the American League in a day or two once Minnesota and Detroit figure who is going. For this analysis, I will be using UZR data from from Fangraphs.com. Fangraphs updates their data on Mondays, so this article doesn't contain the most recent week's fielding data, but should still give a general idea of the teams' defensive strengths and weaknesses.

First, here is the totals of all the NL teams in the playoffs:

As it can be seen, the Phillies defense this season was the best of the four teams with them saving about 40 more runs than the Rockies with the Dodgers and Cardinals just a little better than the Rockies.

Besides the team totals, the UZR can be broken down to individual positions. Here is a comparison of each of the 4 teams by position totals.

The major point I got from this comparison is that most of the teams were rather even except for the holes in the Colorado outfield.

Even though these graphs show how a team did during the season, it doesn't show what to expect in the post season. For example, the Cardinals picked up Matt Holiday at the trading deadline. Matt will be for sure in the Cards lineup and the defense of the previous players shouldn't matter. For each team, I went ahead and calculated the true UZR value of each player projected to start in the playoffs.

For those that need to know, it was a 5-4-3-2 weighted average of season values and regressed to 125 games with no final age adjustment. For example, Albert Pujols had a 1.8 UZR for 2009, but taking into account his previous seasons his true talent level is near 6.4 UZR.

So here is a look at each team's 2009 numbers and the weighted UZR values of the players expected to play during the post season (I will add more as needed - when injuries happen or if I happened to miss someone). These values show the true talent of the fielders better than the small sample set of a single season.

Philadelphia Phillies (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Ryan Howard	1.8
2B	Chase Utley	12.0
3B	Pedro Feliz	8.8
SS	Jimmy Rollins	6.1
LF	Raul Ibanez	-5.6
CF	Shane Victorino	0.1
RF	Jayson Werth	5.7

LA Dodgers (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	James Loney	-1.9
2B	Orlando Hudson	-2.3
3B	Casey Blake	-0.1
SS	Rafael Furcal	0.3
LF	Juan Pierre	1.7
LF	Manny Ramirez	-8.6
CF	Matt Kemp	2.0
RF	Andre Ethier	-5.9

St. Louis Cardinals (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Albert Pujols	6.4
2B	Joe Thurston	0.5
2B	Skip Schumaker	-4.1
3B	Joe Thurston	-0.1
3B	Mark DeRosa	-1.2
SS	Khalil Greene	-2.8
SS	Brendan Ryan	5.3
LF	Matt Holliday	5.1
CF	Rick Ankiel	-2.2
CF	Colby Rasmus	4.5
RF	Ryan Ludwick	1.6

Colorado Rockies (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Todd Helton	2.2
1B	Garrett Atkins	-1.3
2B	Clint Barmes	3.5
3B	Garrett Atkins	-5.6
3B	Ian Stewart	2.4
SS	Troy Tulowitzki	3.1
LF	Ryan Spilborghs	0.9
LF	Seth Smith	2.8
LF	Carlos Gonzalez	1.1
CF	Dexter Fowler	-6.1
CF	Carlos Gonzalez	1.8
RF	Brad Hawpe	-18.1
RF	Ryan Spilborghs	0.1

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First, thanks to Justin for supplying the graphics and let me know if any players might be seeing playing time in the first 2 rounds. I am not going to go through all possible lineups once the DH is added and removed in the World Series until two teams qualify.

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According to John Dewan’s Fielding Bible ratings, these are the rankings of those four teams as it compares to the National League.

Cardinals: 40 Defensive Runs Saved (2nd)
Dodgers: 26 Defensive Runs Saved (6th)
Rockies: 21 Defensive Runs Saved (7th)
Phillies: 20 Defensive Runs Saved (8th)

Twitter: @FlyByKnite

by FlyByKnight on Oct 3, 2009 8:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Brad Hawpe's defensive skill never ceases to amaze me

MLB Notebook / StatSpeak / Baseball Daily Digest / Inside the Majors

by Zach Sanders on Oct 3, 2009 8:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You combined words in that sentence that I'd never expect to see combined.

by Rox Girl on Oct 3, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haha. Dude is so bad in RF. He’s -8 in Defensive Runs Saved this season. He was -22 in 2008 and -11 in 2007.

He’s always had a negative range rating in RF. Guy is just trash in the field. If he couldn’t hit moonshots, he’d have been traded years ago.

Twitter: @FlyByKnite

by FlyByKnight on Oct 3, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

cardinals infield

Brendan Ryan is the starting shortstop. his UZR is over 12. he has consistently had a UZR/150 over 12 when playing shortstop in his career.

Skip Schumaker will get the bulk of the innings at 2B. most of his negative UZR was accumulated in the first half of the season when he was still learning the position. he’s not bad now.

Julio Lugo will likely play 2B against left-handed pitchers, and may get a few innings at SS when Larussa starts playing around.

I don’t think you need to include Khalil Green or Joe Thurston. if they are on the postseason roster, they will be bench players. if they do play the field, it will only be an inning or two at 3B.

by blahquaker on Oct 3, 2009 9:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks -- trying to pick out the standard lineup was a pain. Almost as tough as Minnesota.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 3, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, Troy Glaus seems likely to start at 3B at least part of the time,

and Tony LaRussa is not above playing Mark Derosa in RF and Ryan Ludwick in CF and sitting the Cardinals best defensive player against lefties.

"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus

by hazel on Oct 4, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

additionally

the gaping hole in LF reflects a lot of Chris Duncan and Nick Stavinoha. As the table points out, Holliday’s been above average in LF and he’ll be there unless disaster strikes in the postseason.

by chuckb on Oct 4, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what probably also needs to be factored in

is the likelihood that Skip Schumaker will play CF w/ Lugo at 2nd against lefties. There’s a good chance this will happen which will make the team worse defensively than w/ Rasmus in CF.

by chuckb on Oct 4, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ugh

by vivaelpujols on Oct 4, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

UZR hates Rockies center fielders for some reason...

or in other words doesn’t know how to measure CF at Coors, because Fowler has been at worst league average out there. UZR had the same problems with Willy Taveras before him. Maybe it comes from compensating for Hawpe?

In any case, I think the FRAA ratings for the Rockies are more indicative of Colorado’s skill and performance in 2009.

Eschew Obfuscation!

by Jeff Aberle on Oct 4, 2009 11:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe UZR is correct and Fowler is having to shade to right to help Hawpe there by not getting to balls that he normally would if he was in a "normal" position.

I have seen this before, especially in the outfield, with other one good defender getting a lower than expected number because they are dealing with bad defense with them. I am wonder if that is the case with Ellsbury in Boston having to help Bay (or Youk).

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 5, 2009 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs