Using Pitch F/X Data to Determine if Mariano Rivera Threw a Spitball

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 20, 2009 3:53 PM EDT Comment 10 comments

New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera delivers in the ninth inning of the Yankees' 4-2 victory over the New York Mets in an interleague baseball game at Citi Field in New York, Sunday, June 28, 2009. It was Rivera's 500th career save. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

7 months ago: New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera delivers in the ninth inning of the Yankees' 4-2 victory over the New York Mets in an interleague baseball game at Citi Field in New York, Sunday, June 28, 2009. It was Rivera's 500th career save. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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As some you may have seen (here and here) there is video from last nights ALCS game of what looks like Mariano Rivera spitting on a ball. I am not going to judge what he was trying to do, instead I will look at the physical aspects of the "spitball" and compare it to the other pitches he threw last night. The main advantage of spitting on a ball is to change the spin and direction of the ball. If there was spit on the ball last night, the ball would act significantly different than other pitches Mariano threw. I went to the ever reliable BrooksBaseball.net and saw that the spitball pitch was labeled as a cutter. Imagine that, Mariano Rivera throwing a cutter. There were nine other pitches last night labeled as cutters. Here is the spin and break information on those nine pitches:

pitch_type	break_angle	break_length	spin_dir	spin_rate	spin angle
FC	-9.3	5.3	166	1135	166
FC	-10.6	5.5	159	1053	159
FC	-16.2	5.5	148	1284	148
FC	-17.7	5.1	154	1411	154
FC	-19.0	5.0	152	1556	152
FC	-19.1	4.2	160	1851	160

FC-spitter	-19.9	4.4	156	1698	156

FC	-24.3	4.8	153	1760	153
FC	-26.7	4.1	153	2070	153
FC	-26.9	4.0	160	2096	160

The suspect pitch was not unusual from the cutters he threw. Even if he was trying to spit on the ball for effect, he got no change in break or spin. People can continue to argue his intent, but for actual effects of the "Spitball" there was no actual advantage gained.

The actual mental aspect gained might be huge as players will be looking for him spitting now. It is not like they need something else to worry about when facing Rivera.

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logic flaw

I’m not saying that your conclusion is wrong, but your premise — “If there was spit on the ball last night, the ball would act significantly different than other pitches Mariano threw” — is logically flawed. He could, of course, be loading up all of his pitches. I don’t think that’s necessarily the case but merely wanted to point that out.

by pip on Oct 20, 2009 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually if he threw all spitballs, the ball rotations and break would be significantly different for each pitch

The spitballs effectiveness is that its movement is random, much like the knuckle ball.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 20, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So...

The variation that is shown isn’t significant?

@bs_uf15bosox9be 12 pieces of bacon, a Red Bull, and go get 'em; Learn to use SB Nation

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Oct 20, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff Jeff

I suppose the issue pip raised is possible, but it’s unlikely.

Anyway, I did enjoy the conclusion about the psychological edge.

by vivaelpujols on Oct 20, 2009 5:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I thought one large benefit of a spitball was that the fingers slip off the ball differently, allowing less spin in the direction the ball usually spins...?

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by Sky Kalkman on Oct 20, 2009 8:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If you read the link above (change the spin and direction of the ball), there is the slip finger method.

Also, there is the unbalanced baseball method and the unknown effects of it.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 20, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So I guess there’s no PitchF/X data of actual spitballs? Someone get on it.

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-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Oct 21, 2009 2:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Where's Ed Walsh or Gaylord Perry when we need them.

Well Ed passed away over 50 years ago. Gaylord is still kicking at the ripe old age of 71.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Oct 21, 2009 3:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff Jeff

I’m sick and tired of this talk. It’s over with, and we’re moving on.

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by SFiercex4 on Oct 21, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

MLB Dismisses Mariano Rivera because of a spitball claim. Despite the fact that he plays for the most evil team in the MLB, a Rivera spitball isn’t likely, and his defeated opponents probably should stop whining. Mariano Rivera is known as a stand up guy, a dedicated professional, and his numbers – they speak for themselves, and there aren’t many 39 year olds that still have a 90 mph plus fastball. Once again – it is hard to defend the Yankees about anything, though while we’re at it – A Rod was on steroids! Seriously – the Angels need a cash advance to find something to do, other than talk about a non-existent Rivera spitball.

by SantinoM on Oct 31, 2009 4:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs