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Another NL MVP Discussion

Before everyone jumps on me here, I am well aware that this is a numbers based group and we are supposed to look "beyond the boxscore" which I do every day in evaluating talent on the baseball field.

That being said, we know that the BBWAA often gets it wrong in voting for MVP, CY and ROY.  Lots of intangibles come into play.  Whether those intangibles can be quantified or not, players win awards because of them.  Jimmy Rollins MVP a few years ago is a great example, as is Terry Pendleton's a while back.

I'm a big Troy Tulowitzki fan.  I dont think he is worthy of top 10 MVP consideration this year based on his numbers, but he will probably get a lot of attention.

Pujols is going to be the winner, if not unanimous this year, but given the leadership, superior defense,and big offensive contribution to a team lacking in big offense (not to mention the fact that his team is playoff bound again), where does Tulo finish in the voting?

Does he have a chance to land in the top 5, or even the top 3? Top 10?  What do you think?  If you were building a team, would there be many guys in front of Tulo you would start building your team around?

Thoughts?


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I'm not a Tulo hater by any means,

But there is a long list of guys I’d rather build a team around:

Hanley, Pujols, Utley, Longoria, Mauer, Fielder, Upton, Miggy, Teix…probably more.

Free Milton

by all4tookie on Oct 2, 2009 4:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I can see by your list

That you are a offense first kind of guy.

But if youre going to build a team around certain key positions, first base would be one of the last places I would build around.

With the defense, Tulo has to be considered the best all around SS in the game right now.

by backtocali on Oct 2, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually Tulo derives most of his value from his bat..his defense is only above average

Hanley’s bat >>> Tulo’s bat, and Tulo’s defense > Hanley’s, if that makes sense. I don’t think its particularly close in overall value between the two.

Free Milton

by all4tookie on Oct 2, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And a lot of my guys on that list aren't offense only -

Mauer, Utley, Longoria, and Upton are all defensive gems. Hanley is about average, and Pujols/Teix provide plus defense, even if it is first base.

Free Milton

by all4tookie on Oct 2, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Off the top of my head

I would start with Mauer too, Tulo would be up there, a healthy Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson, Longoria…I’m a big fan of above average bats up the middle to build around. And it helps tremendously if that same player can give you great defense.

Are you talking BJ or Justin Upton? I could go with either one, apart from BJ’s attitude isues.

Love Longoria too.

by backtocali on Oct 2, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was talking about Justin

And even if Pujols threw the ball into the stands one out of five times that he touched it, he has to be in the top 5 and definitely ahead of Tulo.

Free Milton

by all4tookie on Oct 2, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Off topic...

What happened to Granderson’s defense? He was Ozzie in center field, but has average below average UZR the last two years.

RJ alert… “BJ’s attitude issues.”

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 2, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tough Question

He did have a 20-20-20-20 season though. Maybe he is concentrating on offense more, and practicing defense less in the winter.

Formerly The_Fan

by Mr.Fan on Oct 4, 2009 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

if Jeter was younger

He probably would be one of the best bets to build a team around. I would rather have Jeter in his prime than Tulo.

Formerly The_Fan

by Mr.Fan on Oct 4, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So, you're saying Tulo could be as high as the tenth best player in the game...

But probably a bit lower. 15th? 20th? Unless he’s any lower, doesn’t that mean he should at least make your top ten list of NL MVP candidates?

Based solely on this year’s numbers, where he’s no better than the average shortstop (remember positions count, though) Fangraphs has him at 5 WAR, somewhere between 20th and 30th in MLB. If you’re a clutch kind of person, he’s been the third most unclutch hitter based on WPA. Much less unclutch based on RE24 (which ignores inning and score).

by Sky Kalkman on Oct 2, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, he would definitely be in my top 10 on an NL MVP ballot

But that’s a very different from top guys I would want to build my team around.

Free Milton

by all4tookie on Oct 2, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Having a good or bad season

Shouldnt detract from a players standing as “one of the ten best”.

Great players have off years. But they can still be considered one of the ten or five best.

Would you rate Ben Zobrist as one of the ten best players in the game? He has had a great year, but I wouldnt call him one of the ten best.

Tulo’s body of work this year does not quite compare with Utley or Ramirez, definitely not Pujols or Fielder, but he is having a great year on both sides of the field, and has a lot of the intangibles that writers look for when voting mvp, and has the things that gms and managers look for.

I dont know if he’s a ten best in the game, but he is definitely one of the top 10 guys I would choose to build a team around.

by backtocali on Oct 3, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would disagree with that

Over the past 3 years, Tulo has been 35th in WAR… among hitters. If you included pitchers, he’s been the 50th best player over the past 3 years. Even this year, he’s only ranked 26th. For him to be one of the 10 best players in the game, he would have to get a lot better than he is now, and a lot other players would have to decline.

by vivaelpujols on Oct 3, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

except Pujols....

an off year for him is .330 average and 35 home runs.

Formerly The_Fan

by Mr.Fan on Oct 4, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think

Its safe to say that without his injury riddled year last year, he would have been a 3 WAR player at the very worst if not for that.

That would make him top 10 in the NL.

If youre going to build a sound, fundamental baseball team, up the middle, defensively and offensively, I dont see how you can overlook him. He may not be the best player in the game, or even a top 10 player statistically, but he is a very good player, playing a premium position.

by backtocali on Oct 3, 2009 10:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Heres the thing

In real world, a guy like Tulo or Mauer, or Granderson/Sizemore (apart from pitching) are going to be the cornerstones of pennant caliber teams.

Take Pujols for example: Without the great pitching this year, or Matt Holliday, the Cards are not a playoff team. The Padres are going nowhere despite the fact that they have one of the best offensive weapons in the game in Adrain Gonzalez. Same can be said for the Brewers and Fielder/Braun.

In a fantasy setting, guys like Pujols, Fielder or Braun, are going to be the guys you go for first because its all about getting points for most production. But the kind of player, that in real life baseball, that you build franchises around are pitchers and players up the middle who are strong defensively. key guys at key defensive positions are going to be the cornerstones of any great championship team. Big offense from a First Baseman or Left Fielder is desired, but not necessary. And by itselt, doesnt mean much.

A lot of GM’s would probably take a guy like Mauer first, guys like Hanley Ramirez or Chase Utley may go before, Longoria, Granderson, etc. But a ton of GM’s would probably love to have a guy like Tulo as a cornerstone of thier franchise. Look what that team has done this year, and he is pretty much the best player on the team, the catalyst, the cornerstone.

I dont dispute that the big time fantasy player, huge bat guys are great offensive weapons. But some of them are not the kind of guys that you build your team around.

Personally, if you threw the all of MLB rosters in the air and tried to build a new team, taking turns, I would take the best available pitcher first, maybe even 2nd too, but if a guy like Tulo is sitll on the board, Id take him before a big bat at a defensive unimportant position like first base or left field.

by backtocali on Oct 4, 2009 2:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You do realize that the Rockies are going to playoffs

Mainly because their starting rotation has been the best in baseball? And their bullpen’s been great and they have received good contributions from part time players. Put Tulo on the Padres and see what happens, they’ll still suck.

The point about position and defense in nullified by using WAR. WAR, by definition, takes into account positional scarcity. If Tulowitski is a 5 WAR shortstop with good defense, he’s no more valuable than a 5 WAR first baseman with bad defense.

For you to try and prove that Tulowitski would be a cornerstone type player, IE, a guy who if you had a leaguewide draft, you would take in the top 10; you would have to show that he projects to be better by WAR than at least 10 other players. As I’ve shown above, unless he improves a lot AND other players decline, that’s not going to be the case.

by vivaelpujols on Oct 4, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Are you really saying...

That if all teams were erased, and every player was thrown into a giant pool, as a GM you would take Tulo over Pujols?

Your argument makes little sense. I could also say, “Without Pujols and his ridiculous contributions, the great pitching staff would be sitting at home.” Obviously it takes more than just offense to make the playoffs, but it takes more than pitching and defense too. Braves and Giants had great pitching but poor hitting and didn’t get the job done.

Free Milton

by all4tookie on Oct 4, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually

I said that if I had my druthers, I would go pitching. If available, I would take Tim Lincecum over anyone.

But yes, if I were building a team, the first non pitchers would be impact players up the middle, over big hitting first basemen like Pujols or Fielder.

In the example you use above in the Braves or Giants, if you take their pitching staffs and add impact bats at any of the important defensive positions, they are playoff bound, just like the Rockies are with Tulo.

I’m not making an argument here that Tulo is the best player in the game, or the best hitter, but he is regarded league wide as one of the best defensive SS in the game right now by insiders, and add in his bat, and he would gladly be a cornerstone for many big league GM’s.

by backtocali on Oct 4, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You keep using cornerstone, as if it means something special

If you admit that Tulo likely isn’t even one of best 10-20 players by WAR, which adjusts for positional scarcity, then you are basically throwing all stats out the window when deciding who your “cornerstone” players are.

by vivaelpujols on Oct 4, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

...
In the example you use above in the Braves or Giants, if you take their pitching staffs and add impact bats at any of the important defensive positions, they are playoff bound, just like the Rockies are with Tulo.

You could also make that argument for Fielder or Wright or Longoria or Pujols… or really anyone else who projects to be a better player going forward than Tulo.

by vivaelpujols on Oct 4, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the main ridiculous aspect of tulo's value is his value relative to his cost.

for a no-budget team, tulowitzski’s contribution at his salary level would be crucial.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Oct 7, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll have to disagree

with the use of Pujols as an example of your point. He’s proven to be a “cornerstone” of quite a few pennant caliber teams. All players need a team around them, so I’m not sure how floating out the “without…” argument works, especially when you even caveat the Sizemore pick.

For a point of comparison, if you take Pujols and pair him with a 1 WAR SS (of which nearly all of MLB trotted one out there) you have to find a 4 WAR 1B to pair with Tulo (of which there were 8, or 9 if you count Youk). If you pair him with a 2 WAR SS (of which 19 teams had one of those) then you need to go out and find a 5 WAR 1B (of which there were 6).

I’m not necessarily trying to prove your general point of building up the middle wrong, it just seems difficult to make that point when one of your examples is tenuous at best.

by stevesommer05 on Oct 4, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It might be interesting to do

a little correlation work with WAR from clumps of positions vs. actual wins. I’d guess that it would come out inconclusive and that a WAR is a WAR is a WAR (I did batters v pitchers after Jeff posted his WAR vs. Wins work earlier and found nothing of substance).

by stevesommer05 on Oct 4, 2009 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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