Top Ten Total Runs Contributed seasons since 2003

by FlyByKnight on Oct 2, 2009 7:06 AM EDT Comment 4 comments

10.) David Wright (177; 2007)
7a.) Chase Utley (178; 2006)
7b.) Albert Pujols (178; 2003)
7c.) Alex Rodriguez (178; 2007)
4a.) Todd Helton (179; 2004)
4b.) Adrian Beltre (179; 2004)
4c.) Albert Pujols (179; 2009)
3.) Alex Rodriguez (181; 2003)
2.) Barry Bonds (184; 2004)
1.) Chase Utley (192; 2008)

What does this show? Chase Utley is a freaking beast. A lot of his total runs come from the positional adjustment factor which has ranged between 26 and 31 runs since 2005, when he first started contributing on a regular basis. His 192 Total Runs last season was mind-boggling. Hell, it was 21 runs more than Pujols generated last season. And, of those 21, a grand total of 20 runs came from the positional adjustment difference between the two which still shows Utley was the better straight-up player last season.

Since 2005, Utley has produced 861 Total Runs. Over that same time period, Pujols has put up 848 Total Runs. I'm not saying Utley is the better player between the two but it's quite clear that Utley is a top five player in this league and quite possibly even top three. Utley is actually second, behind Pujols, in terms of Total Runs this season. He's a true monster. He's posted Runs Saved totals of 21, 15, 15, 34, and 13 since 2005. He's an amazing fielder at his position considering his ability at the plate. And he's not a lame on the basepaths either. He's posted Baserunning Runs totals of 3, 5, 3, 5, and 5 since 2005. He's an adequate and smart baserunner.

Just one of the ways to show how dominant Utley has been during his career.

One of the reasons I made this thread was to show some of the great seasons that were put up since 2003. Another reason was to show how absolutely brilliant Utley has been for the Phillies during his time there. In January of 2007, Utley signed a seven-year deal worth $85 million. It keeps him in Philadelphia until 2013. That's what you would call a smart investment. It pays Utley a meager $12.1 million per season with the Phillies through 2013. Since 2005, when Utley began this impressive run, he's been worth an average of $30.9 million per season. He's being underpaid by nearly $20 million per year. He's in the Pujols category when it comes to that.

One has to wonder how long it'll take people to recognize Utley as one of the top players in the game today. And, when I say that, I truly mean a top player. At the very least top five but possibly the best all-around player in the game. One could debate it and not truly be wrong. I used to say that Utley wasn't even the best second baseman in baseball but he is. And he is such by a wide, wide, wide margin. It's not even close. However, he now may be the best player in the game and not just the best second baseman in the game.

Time to recognize greatness. Both past and present.

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Utley

I don’t know exactly what this position adjustment is. I do know that Utley has had a lot better hitters batting behind him in his lineup. He should score at least 130 runs every year with that lineup but he doesn’’t. Pujols has had very little to back him up. Ludwick is all right, nothing great and Holliday has done a good job but Pujols actually wasdoing much better statistically before he came. The name of the game is scoring runs and Pujols is over 100 more runs produced over the period of time you are talking about, and that’s with Pujols having a couple of “off” years. On the Runs Created Scale he’s either 1st or 2nd almost every year.
I think Utley is a very good player but statistically speaking, which is what you’re trying use, Pujols is in a completely different league.

by dancindani on Oct 5, 2009 2:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You are completely disregarding defense

Fact is Utley plays very good defense at a premium position.

I love Albert and would rather have him than Utley in a second, and I think there are many convincing arguments as to why Albert is more valuable. But your statements that:

He should score at least 130 runs every year with that lineup but he doesn’’t.

isn’t convincing in the least as Runs Contributed is a stat independent of teammates contributions (Albert doesn’t get penalized for having worse teammates and Utley doesn’t benefit from having better ones).

No one is arguing that Utley is a better hitter than Pujols; the author is opining that all-around Utley has a strong argument that he is as valuable if not more valuable than Albert due to his superb defense. If you disagree, why not point us to the light about why Utley gets too much of a premium for the positional adjustments or why Albert’s defense is underrated? That would be much more convincing than saying that “Utley should score more runs, Pujols doesn’t have anyone in the lineup” which is tangential to the OP at best and completely ignores half of the game.

Free Milton

by all4tookie on Oct 5, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not a fan of Total Runs.

First of all, Bill James needs to stop using Runs Created. I know, I know, it’s his statistic. But there comes a point in time when you need to admit your way isn’t the best and adopt a better method (lwts, anyone?). I’m glad to see that he’s recognized straight RC can’t be applied to individual hitters, but this still doesn’t entirely fix RC.

My main issue with TR is that there is no implementation of a baseline, which is absolutely necessary IMO. Say we have a 4.5 RPG environment and two players. Player A has 99 RC and 409 outs, Player B has 99 RC and 374 outs.

Player A is a 99/409*26.25 = 6.4 RPG player.
Player B is a 99/374*26.25 = 6.9 RPG player.

Player A is (6.4-4.5)/26.25*409 = 30 RAA
Player B is (6.9-4.5)/26.25*374 = 34 RAA

Player A is Curtis Granderson. Player B is Andre Ethier. Ethier is clearly the more productive hitter, but they’re viewed as equal by TR.

Let’s apply this to Chase Utley’s 2008 season, where he has 189 TR. He has 122 RC while making 441 outs. He’s a 7.26 RPG hitter in a 4.54 RPG environment. So he’s 46 Runs Created Above Average. Albert Pujols, on the other hand, has 142 RC while making 356 outs. So he’s a 10.47 RPG hitter, or 80 RCAA.

Using straight RC shows Utley as being 20 runs below Albert. RCAA has him as being 34. That’s a pretty substantial change and it changes the difference from TR from 21 runs to 7 runs.

But that’s not it. We have to use a baseline for the “positional average” as well, because we’re using Runs Created Above Average, Runs Saved Above Average and Baserunning Runs Above Average. So let’s assume the positional average is adjusted to “runs saved above an ‘average’ Major League defender at the position.” This changes the positional adjustments to this:

Catcher: +14.7
First Base: -13.8
Second Base: +4.1
Third Base: -3.3
Shortstop: +8.6
Left Field: -8.8
Center Field: 1.1
Right Field: -7.3

Which just so happens to be nearly identical to the widely accepted positional values you see on FanGraphs based off of UZR studies, with the exception of third base. Not bad. Utley’s adjusted positional value is +3.7 (we’ll round to 4) and Albert’s is -11.5 (which we’ll round to -12).

Now let’s put it all together.

Chase Utley: 46+4+34+2 = 86 Total Runs
Albert Pujols: 80-12+15+0= 83 Total Runs

Big, big difference from James’ original structure. I don’t know if he park-adjusts the hitting. If he did, I’m certain you’d find Pujols coming ahead of Utley.

by Anticon23 on Oct 6, 2009 6:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

also,

I submitted a question to Bill about this on his site. He didn’t understand, so I tried to explain it a bit clearer. It’s been a few days and he’s yet to reply. Either he knows he’s wrong or I’m making a HUGE mistake in my assessment somewhere, which is certainly possible.

by Anticon23 on Oct 6, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs