FanPost

A Question on Context-Adjusted Defense

Because I'm bored and because I love tinkering around with old systems, I thought I'd try and recreate Charlie Saeger's "Context-Adjusted Defense."  It's a system that really isn't necessary because we have PBP systems, obviously, but I thought it'd be fun to try it out and maybe even compare it toUZR/PMR/Plus-Minus, etc.

Unfortunately, I've already hit a wall.  Does anyone understand how to apply Saeger's "position rates"?

(((AB.rhb - HR.rhb - SO.rhb) * posRate) / (AB.tm - HR.tm - SO.tm)) / lgAVG

What the heck is the posRate? It is the "position rate," a measure of how much more likely a right-handed batter is to hit a ball to that position. Each affected position has a different rate:

1b

0.25

2b

0.50

3b

4.00

ss

2.00

lf

0.70

rf

1.30

A right-handed batter is four times as likely to hit a ball to the third baseman than a left-handed batter, and twice as likely to hit a ball to the shortstop than a left-handed batter. This sounds like a big difference, and it is, but teams don't vary much on the number of right-handed batters they face.

I don't know how to reach Mr. Saeger, and the only other person I've seen use them, DSG, hasn't gotten back to me on it yet.  Chances are this is really simple and I'm overlooking something terribly obvious, but I figure it'd be worth a shot to see if someone here can enlighten me!

Thanks in advance.

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