Is there ANY fair return for Evan Longoria in a trade?
by Decatur on Oct 13, 2009 8:43 AM EDT
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PrintHey, BtB. I posted this comment last week in response to some silly questions from ma main man 50 Cent, and I'll excerpt it below because I wanted to ask this community this question: can any MLB team put together any trade package that is equal to the projected net value of Evan Longoria, a 7 WAR/season player under contract for a maximum of $50 million over the next seven years (until 2016). Projected net value here means a player's projected worth in dollars in the future (WAR an all that) minus the salaries he's under contract or expected to receive. Anyways, here's what I wrote on Lookout Landing. Maybe it will help get the conversation going. I'm particularly interested to hear people's opinions on how much of such a trade could be made up of prospects valued by the BtB/Victor Wang style minor leaguer value calculator
[From 2009-2014], Longoria will make $21 million, and then the Rays will have two more options that would keep him in TB at $11 million per year for 2015 and 2016. Crazy. He’s going to be paid like a league average back-end starting pitcher through a potential Hall-Of-Fame prime. Agents, this is the template of what not to do with your best client going forward.Let’s estimate that Longoria is a hall-of-fame caliber player – let’s say 5 wins a year on average, although he’ll probably be even better.
I’m bad at this, but.. Assuming a somewhat low 1.07 per year salary inflation.
…………………………………………………………………..5 wins……….
2002 – $2.6m / win 2009: $4.5m/win…………$22.5m……..
2003 – $2.8m / win 2010: $4.8 m/ win………..$24m…………
2004 – $3.1m / win 2011: $5.1 m/ win……….$25.5m……….
2005 – $3.4m / win 2012: $5.5 m/ win………..$27.5m………
2006 – $3.7m / win 2013: $5.9 m/ win………..$29.5m…….
2007 – $4.1m / win 2014: $6.3 m/ win………..31.8m………
2008 – $4.5m / win 2015: $6.7 m/ win…………33.5………..
……………………………..2016: $7.1 m/win…………..35.5………….If Longoria played at a five win level, he’d be paid 50 million for services rendered worth 229.5 million, or about be worth on average about $32.8m per year) – and worth 275.2 millon at 6 war per year, and 321.4 million if he played at a 7 WAR per year level.
Let’s go with At 5 WAR/y, he’s a $180 million dollar value. What can we trade for him?
Two years of Felix, as a 5 WAR pitcher, will probably be worth about $22.5m + $24.0m = $46.5
46.5 minus 20m Salary = 26.5m in total value
Three years of Gutz, as a 4 WAR player, = $61.6 million
61.6 million minus, say, 11.6 million = 50 million26.5m + 50 m = $76.5 million.
That means that The net value of Felix and Gutierrez, our two most valuable players, is only about 40% of what Longoria is worth. Using one of those fancy Beyond of the Boxscore or Victor Wang prospect calculators, I’m not sure if we could find $105 million in value if we mailed them our top ten prospects as well. There might be literally nothing the mariners could practically trade the rays of equal value as Longoria.
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This does make assumptions about the future market, but basically I don't think so
I just did Evan at 6 WAR vs. Hanley Ramirez at 6 WAR (both underestimates) and got an additional $96M that needs to be produced to even his value. You would need another 5 WAR player locked up at a similar rate to Hanley for 5 years to achieve the same value. It might require something like Ryan Zimmerman and Hanley Ramirez to make it work.
Hysterical. That’s why Longoria’s staying in Tampa forever. Here’s hoping when he finally gets out that he gets paid $30M a year for his troubles.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
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Forever's an awfully long time
at some point he’ll become a free agent and the Rays will have to decide if they can spend whatever his value is to keep him. It’s not a given that Pujols will remain in St. Louis after his contract ends and, if that’s true, Longoria could leave Tampa as well.
By "forever," I meant the remainder of his really long deal
It’s actually 5 years after this year, right?
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
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rec'd
just ridiculous.
the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009
by CubFanRaysaddict on Oct 14, 2009 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm
Just throwing out names, but how would a package of Lincecum, Sandoval, Bumgarner and Posey turn out?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
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This would depend on Lincecum's contract situation
If he’s getting arbitration, I don’t think it will do. I don’t recall where Bumgarner and Posey were ranked in BA, but let’s say they’re worth $40M total (Top 11-25 hitter and pitcher). If Panda were 5 WAR over the next few years, presuming no Super 2 shenanigans, he’d be worth $85M. This is if he starts breaking some crazy arbitration records; using the 40/60/80 approx, he’d be making $23M in arbitration his last year. My guess is he just gets extended, but let’s just go with that figure for now.
For Lincecum to be the difference, he’d have to make up $45M in surplus value. Could he possibly do that on an arbitration salary? I had him making $108M in value over the next three years as a 7 WAR player. He needs to make around $63M in three years of arbitration to be worth it at 7 WAR; he’d easily make less than that. At a 5 WAR rate, he’d need to make less than $47M, a much more dicey figure, but an unlikely WAR total.
This could be possible, but only if Panda were really a 5 WAR a year player, and while I love that guy, I don’t think he is.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
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I know I just contradicted my first statement, but meh, it happens.
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Not sure what the skepticism over Sandoval being 5 WAR is about, but hey, I’ll let it slide.
Throw Sanchez, Cain and Wilson into the package along with those guys and you got yourselves a fair deal….
Man Longoria’s contract is ridiculous.
by Missing Barry on Oct 26, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think this is true
Lince, Sandoval, Bumgarner and Posey would be way too much to pay. The value of having those 4 guys all right now and playing together is good in several ways.
- The injury risk is spread between multiple players.
- There are less positions you need to fill.
- You can make trades and keep some value.
- It will be easier to win a world series with multiple good players (especially a top 5 pitcher) rather than one guy and still have to worry about the rest of your team.
RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!
all of my reasons were good enough to be #1 I guess
RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!
Eh, I might have been exaggerating a little bit, but not a whole lot. Longoria’s contract is that amazing. You have more positions to fill, but you also have a lot of money to do it with…
by Missing Barry on Oct 30, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
That rate of inflation seems wildly off base to me
7% a year? That’s way beyond normal inflation rates in the U.S. and seemingly way beyond the actual rate of salary increases in the last 10 years.
As for why Longoria signed the contract, it’s easy— he was offered a guaranteed retirement fund for life. Or he could have risked losing it all by having to play 3 seasons for a pittance first (and then gotten underpaid in arbitration for the next 4 seasons), risking either a severe injury or a flameout.
You’d have to be insane to turn that deal down, and an agent would have to be profoundly unethical to recommend against signing it.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I agree with you on Longoria signing the deal
It was a good move for him, and as I always say, the first million (for sports players, not for everyday folks like you or me) is the most important one. After that, it doesn’t really matter how much more he makes.
But for the inflation part, it seems like the rate teams are paying. This year was the first season in which the rate hasn’t gone up, and the quoted 2002-2008 number were the actual amounts paid per free agent WAR. The increase is something along those lines, and it isn’t insane to think it wouldn’t continue, though it certainly isn’t a certainty.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
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I just can't wrap my head around this
So Manny’s 2001-2008 contract was paying him to be an 8 WAR player? A-Rod’s 2001 contract was to be a 10 WAR player?
That’s not just standard GM bad decisionmaking (which usually is something along the lines of “paying a player for what he’ll do if everything works out,” followed by everything not working out). That’s lock-up-the-GM-in-the-loony-bin palpable insanity.
I’m wondering if the numbers might be getting confused by other factors, like increased use of young players leading to similar numbers of FA dollars being distributed among a smaller pool of players. If that’s the case, then it may very well not make sense to expect the trend to continue. There are only so many top draft picks that you can play in place of creaking veterans.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
That's not surprising
Manny was a great hitter, and they were paying him as a 7.7 WAR guy. And when they broke down the payment structure of the deal, Manny met expectations on the first two seasons before his defense apparently went down the drain and he was a good deal overvalued. Remember, I don’t think teams accounted for defense as much as they may do now, so it was just enough to see Manny was a great hitter and someone who could play the outfield in some capacity.
Also, this presumes they don’t think the value of WAR goes up in subsequent years. I think if we went back a bit, into the 90’s, we’d see a similar trend. Back then, teams spent $1.8M per marginal win, so clearly free agent prices were low then too. If teams figured these prices were going up, they probably guessed at the rate increase and planned accordingly when handing out deals. I don’t know if this is giving them too much credit though.
And paying A-Rod to be a 10 WAR player at the time wasn’t all that absurd. He racked up an 11 WAR season according to Rally the year before he signed. After that, it depends on who you ask regarding the production (FanGraphs is a little more favorable than Rally) but he mostly met the contract’s expectations based on the increased rate.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
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I agree it's smart for these players to sign below-market deals.
But Longoria surely didn’t need to sign one THAT favorable to the Rays.
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The reason why it was so favorable, though
is that he got it like two days after he played his first game in the majors. They didn’t even force him to show that he could hack it in the short term. That’s beyond rare— it’s literally unheard of (at least outside of the narrow context of Japanese and Cuban pros, who have the leverage of free agency).
It makes a lot of economic sense that an unheard-of early signing is an unheard-of bargain when it worked out.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
If this is a favorable situation for the players,
and it’s obviously a good situation for the teams, should teams be offering this deal to every guy who puts up good numbers in AAA? Obviously, that’s hyperbole, but the bust rate could scarcely be high enough to make deals like this dumb as long as you lock up at least one Longo every so often.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
Probably
Probably makes sense for most of the players to take them, too.
There are a whole bunch of bizarre incentives working here.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I gotta agree with Sky, here, I think Longoria could have gotten a better deal. 3 years of team options into his free agency? Really? That piled on top of 6 years/$17.5M? I mean…really? It’s almost like the Rays decided, hey, what the hell, let’s offer it to them because what do we have to lose….
by Missing Barry on Oct 26, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions
It's actually only 2 years into free agency
The Rays’ manipulation of service time left him with only 170 service days entering this season. Unfortunately for him, there’s no real grounds for a grievance on that issue— there’s too much deference to teams on the issue.
So after the 2013 season, assuming for the sake of argument that the Rays somehow decided to decline all of his team options, he would then still be subject to the normal arbitration procedure rather than being granted free agency. They could, of course, nontender him (this would obviously only happen if he suffered some sort of career-ending injury, in which case they undoubtedly WOULD nontender him).
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Ah, good point. That makes it slightly less ridiculous, but still quite bad.
by Missing Barry on Oct 27, 2009 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions
To me, it’d be tougher to get a fair return on Justin Upton than anyone else in baseball.
Twitter: @FlyByKnite
He's probably the superior player
but he only has four years of control left compared to 7 for Longo, Upton would have to be Pujols to even make up for ~1.5 years of extra Longoria control.
the ghost of stokes, camp, lugo strikes TB-sept 2009
by CubFanRaysaddict on Oct 14, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions
IF YOU THINK EVAN LONGORIA IS BETTER THAN ALBERT PUJOLS YOU'RE CRAZY!
Just kidding, guys. There’s probably nothing you could trade for Longoria. I suppose the entire Rangers’ farm would probably be a decent start.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
This is why I think Colby will be a similar situation
I support locking him up long term something to the tune of 8/50 (Rough estimate).
He isn’t Evan Longoria, but he is a favorable contract if he becomes a star, and isn’t crippling if he turns out to be a bust.
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
That’s what strikes me as so absurd in the Longoria deal. The Rays took no risk whatsoever (a little hyperbole, but pretty damn close to true). They guaranteed him $17M. Even if he was pretty bad, they probably would have ended up paying him, what, $3-4M at least or so before they finally moved on? So we’re talking about $12-$15M in risk, spread out over 6 years, most of it at the end of the contract (so it’s actually worth less because of PV). That’s….basically nothing.
by Missing Barry on Oct 28, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Pretty much
I can’t believe Longoria’s agent would agree to sign such a deal? What’s the incentive for Longoria? I mean, how can he be that worrie she will be a bust?
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
I can understand taking a huge discount to get that kind of financial security before you’ve even established yourself in MLB (especially once you start thinking of utility curves)…but come on, if you demanded an extra $10M, that’s still a no-brainer for the Rays.
by Missing Barry on Oct 30, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Edit
Colby Rasmus
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
Think you mean Curt Ramsey?
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
Reply fail...
"Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work"
-Mark Twain
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