FanPost

Is there ANY fair return for Evan Longoria in a trade?

Hey, BtB. I posted this comment last week in response to some silly questions from ma main man 50 Cent, and I'll excerpt it below because I wanted to ask this community this question: can any MLB team put together any trade package that is equal to the projected net value of  Evan Longoria, a 7 WAR/season player under contract for a maximum of $50 million over the next seven years (until 2016).  Projected net value here means a player's projected worth in dollars in the future (WAR an all that) minus the salaries he's under contract or expected to receive.  Anyways, here's what I wrote on Lookout Landing. Maybe it will help get the conversation going.  I'm particularly interested to hear people's opinions on how much of such a trade could be made up of prospects valued by the BtB/Victor Wang style minor leaguer value calculator

As Dave Cameron said,

[From 2009-2014], Longoria will make $21 million, and then the Rays will have two more options that would keep him in TB at $11 million per year for 2015 and 2016. Crazy. He’s going to be paid like a league average back-end starting pitcher through a potential Hall-Of-Fame prime. Agents, this is the template of what not to do with your best client going forward.

Let’s estimate that Longoria is a hall-of-fame caliber player – let’s say 5 wins a year on average, although he’ll probably be even better.

I’m bad at this, but.. Assuming a somewhat low 1.07 per year salary inflation.
…………………………………………………………………..5 wins……….
2002 – $2.6m / win 2009: $4.5m/win…………$22.5m……..
2003 – $2.8m / win 2010: $4.8 m/ win………..$24m…………
2004 – $3.1m / win 2011: $5.1 m/ win……….$25.5m……….
2005 – $3.4m / win 2012: $5.5 m/ win………..$27.5m………
2006 – $3.7m / win 2013: $5.9 m/ win………..$29.5m…….
2007 – $4.1m / win 2014: $6.3 m/ win………..31.8m………
2008 – $4.5m / win 2015: $6.7 m/ win…………33.5………..
……………………………..2016: $7.1 m/win…………..35.5………….

If Longoria played at a five win level, he’d be paid 50 million for services rendered worth 229.5 million, or about be worth on average about $32.8m per year) – and worth 275.2 millon at 6 war per year, and 321.4 million if he played at a 7 WAR per year level.

Let’s go with At 5 WAR/y, he’s a $180 million dollar value. What can we trade for him?
Two years of Felix, as a 5 WAR pitcher, will probably be worth about $22.5m + $24.0m = $46.5
46.5 minus 20m Salary = 26.5m in total value
Three years of Gutz, as a 4 WAR player, = $61.6 million
61.6 million minus, say, 11.6 million = 50 million

26.5m + 50 m = $76.5 million.

That means that The net value of Felix and Gutierrez, our two most valuable players, is only about 40% of what Longoria is worth. Using one of those fancy Beyond of the Boxscore or Victor Wang prospect calculators, I’m not sure if we could find $105 million in value if we mailed them our top ten prospects as well. There might be literally nothing the mariners could practically trade the rays of equal value as Longoria.

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