Blown Saves vs. Fielding Independent Pitching: Graph of the Day

by Justin Bopp on Oct 12, 2009 3:00 AM EDT in Graph of the Day Comment 11 comments

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With apologies to Boston, today's Graph of the Day compares Blown Saves by pitchers on playoff teams and compares it to fielding independent pitching. (regular season data)

Source: Fangraphs.com

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Where’s Mariano Rivera?

Twitter: @FlyByKnite

by FlyByKnight on Oct 12, 2009 4:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The answer you're looking for is "blown saves."

See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Oct 12, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not enough room? Cut-off at 3?

by Harry Pavlidis on Oct 12, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could have made more room,

but truthfully, I just cut it off once I got down to Papelbon. In retrospect, not putting Rivera on there is pretty silly.*

*He had two on the season.

See Data Differently.
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by Justin Bopp on Oct 12, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does that also explain

why Huston Street is absent?

by Tom (RFTN) on Oct 12, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

whats the correlation?

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Oct 12, 2009 12:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It’s a bit misleading, though, since a lot of blown saves come in situations where a pitcher wasn’t going to be allowed to finish out the game anyway (like a setup guy in the 8th inning.) So while that’s technically a save opportunity, it’s not really.

So ideally (and this would be more difficult data to gather) I’d compare 9th inning blown saves with 9th inning save opportunities. Or maybe only include true closers? Eh, maybe it’s not that big of a deal.

Jonathan Broxton was pretty unclutch, huh? Or did he see a lot more one-run save opps?

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by Sky Kalkman on Oct 12, 2009 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great questions.

A better chart would have save percentage and be limited to true closers.

The point, obviously, was that Papelbon (and the non-listed Rivera) have been completely reliable all season long, and sometimes a player rolls snake eyes at the worst possible time.

Does that make Rivera due? I’d say so.

See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Oct 12, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wha?

What exactly is this graph trying to say?

Take a look at this, also:
http://peltiertech.com/WordPress/relief-pitching-chart-busters/

by sux2lose on Oct 13, 2009 9:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

LOL -- I love Jon Peltier.

The point of the graph, probably lost because of poor presentation, is that saves/blown saves is a silly stat. Moreover, blown saves aren’t reflected with similar descending FIP numbers.

Papelbon’s blown save in the playoffs reflects that.

See Data Differently.
beyondtheboxscore.com | Twitter: @ justinbopp

by Justin Bopp on Oct 13, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So...

So what you’re saying is: FIP is a good indicator of a pitchers ability; FIP has nearly no correlation to blown saves; therefore blown saves is not a good indicator of a pitcher’s ability.

Yes?

by sux2lose on Oct 13, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs