Weekend Poll 08/11/09: Sabermetrically Surprising Results

by Justin Bopp on Oct 11, 2009 9:21 PM EDT

This weekend's poll comes after two sweeps -- and the Colorado Rockies and Minnesota Twins aren't the teams that were swept. Let's hear what you think was most surprising after the first weekend of playoff baseball.

If you're wondering why "Dayton Moore still has a job" wasn't included in the poll, it's because none of us should be surprised by that result.

Poll

Which result this weekend was the most sabermetrically surprising?

Dodgers sweep Cardinals

63 votes

Angels sweep Red Sox

81 votes

Phillies and Rockies tied 1-1 going into Sunday night

1 votes

Nationals reportedly interviewing Braves' scouting director

19 votes

164 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 7 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Err...none?

Playoffs aren’t quite a crapshoot, but they’re getting there. Anything can happen in a short series.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore
Red Reporter
Basement-Dwellers.com
Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Oct 11, 2009 9:23 PM EDT reply actions

Obviously. But even crapshoots can produce surprising results.

"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"

by Justin Bopp on Oct 11, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, FWIW

The power rankings have the Dodgers and Rockies as being almost exactly even, and clearly the best two teams in the NL.

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore
Red Reporter
Basement-Dwellers.com
Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Oct 11, 2009 9:25 PM EDT reply actions

I do wonder how much of a teams true talent level is going to be explained over a full seasons worth of data

My research for the playoffs odds, using third order wins, suggests that even towards the end of the season, preseason projections are just as predictive as performance rankings. Due to the fact that the Rockies were projected to play poorly this year, about 75 wins if I’m not mistaken, they aren’t likely to be as good as the Dodgers or Phillies.

by vivaelpujols on Oct 12, 2009 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions

The Dodgers are better now than the 50 games Manny was suspended.

Talent on the team in post season needs to be taken into account, vice what was there for the season.

Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 12, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions

BtB Power Rankings != Definitive

But they’re good data. And they indicate that the Rockies are very good. That’s all I was saying.

I completely agree that coupling the power rankings (or whatever analogous data) with preseason projections, as you did in your playoff odds, provides a better predictive measure of team true talent levels, and thus projection into the playoffs.

As for preseason projections vs. in-season performance…I’d have to see the data.
-j

I write at:
Beyond the Boxscore
Red Reporter
Basement-Dwellers.com
Twitter: @jinazreds

by JinAZ on Oct 12, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Here

http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/200171/pecotaregressionx1.jpg

From the first peice in the playoff odds:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/16/931675/btb-playoff-odds-july-16th

I think that you power rankings are probably better than 3rd Order Wins, so it might be different if we had historical TQI; however, it appears that PECOTA and Performance are right around equal when it’s all said and done.

by vivaelpujols on Oct 12, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions