Hall of Fame WAR Path: Center Field - Graph of the Day
by Justin Bopp on Oct 1, 2009 8:00 AM EDT
in Graph of the Day
38 comments
Click to Enlarge.
Today, a graph by numbers. (continued)
*UPDATED*
#. Name (Lifetime WAR) - Years through 2008
1. Kenny Lofton (67.2) - 17 - Makes an excellent case for himself, following the path of an HoFer to the end.
2. Jim Edmonds (67.7) - 16 - This chart says he should be in the HoF. Do you buy it?
3. Andruw Jones (57.8) - 13 - A nice, non-HoF arc.
4. Carlos Beltran (50.8) - 11 - If he played in KC for his entire career, he...no. I will not finish that thought.
5. Mike Cameron (42.6) - 14 - I really just wanted to add green to this chart. It offsets the other colors and pleases me. Seriously though, Cameron's career has been long and productive. But not HoF-worthy (according to this)
Make your case below.
Data Visualization: Justin Bopp | Data Collection: Sky Kalkman | Data Source: BaseballProjection.com
Special thanks to Jeff Zimmerman and TangoTiger for providing the HoF Zone data.
Updated Chart before the jump. Here's the original, pre-suggestions:
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LIke it
Anything that gives credit to Kenny Lofton is awesome. But I would like to see the HoF zone include the average and replacement HoF lines, with the shaded region between, like Studes suggested. That gives us an idea of the odds a player will get it; if he’s within the zone, he’s got a good chance.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
by SFiercex4 on Oct 1, 2009 8:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure, but I think we just need to make the gray line wider, to cover the area from the 50th percentile to 20th percentile...
I also think the names, axes labels, and axes numbers could be larger so people don’t have to click for the larger version.
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by Sky Kalkman on Oct 1, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is good feedback. Thank you.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Oct 1, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like this idea.
"Of course Kolby Rasmus was going deep! That’s what Kolby Rasmus does! You don’t give Kolby Rasmus second chances!" -Kolby Rasmus
by hazel on Oct 1, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The spreadsheet...
…that I put together does this, the line just got alterered when the above graph was put together.
Here’s the spreadsheet:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/8/13/988151/vladimir-guerrero-joins-the-400#19675609
Or here (this is the *.XLS version)
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/8/12/986658/a-few-weeks-ago-studes-joined-us#19677777
Nothing original of mine in those spreadsheets. It’s all Sky, Jeff, Studes, and Tango’s input. I just put together something that’s fairly easy to use.
-j
by JinAZ on Oct 1, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love these graphs
I usually come away with a new-found respect for some player I didn’t know much about. In this case it’s Kenny Lofton. I did not think his career was as good as it was.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
by mattybobo on Oct 1, 2009 10:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, definitely didn't realize how good Lofton was
But equally surprised by Beltran’s curve. I would have expected him to have a more impressive case.
"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige
by Steve Slowinski on Oct 1, 2009 10:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of curves, can anybody help coming up with a literal HoF WAR Career Curve?
I’d like to do a chart that shows a true trajectory over time with various players’ careers all set at the same origin. My initial run shows that it’s very zig-zaggy and not as effective as the best-to-worst setup we’re using here.
Sky suggested ‘smoothing out’ the data by averaging the data in between years, but does anybody else have some input on the idea?
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Oct 1, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Given that the gap here, between Jones an Edmonds is about four 1-2 WAR years ahead of Jones— is that enough to go from “This chart says he should be in the HoF. Do you buy it?” to “A nice, non-HoF arc.”??
Granted his 0.6 WAR in 2009 and that he hasn’t even played CF this year might make adding a couple slighly below average years unlikely— but he’s also still just 32 years old.
by erosen on Oct 1, 2009 11:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great point. One might note that he played at least 10 seasons at an HoF level.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Oct 1, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Responding to myself here, but have we established how long one needs to be above that WAR line to have a great case?
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Oct 1, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think 10 years is the minimum standard for players to be considered for the HOF already.
So I think 10 years playing at a HOF level should also be the minimum standard.
It’s also probably best if players peak later rather than earlier. I don’t think Andruw Jones makes the HOF based on his career peaking early, which happens to coincide with the so-called Steroid Era. He won’t get the votes even though he reaches the minimum standard.
by Wilder. on Oct 1, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know.
But I think it also matters how far above it they were. And keep in mind that the top of the WAR line is the 50th percentile HoF career, while the bottom is the 20th percentile (I think.) So even just being inside the line for a long time means you played as well as many many Hall of Famers.
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by Sky Kalkman on Oct 1, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A few nits.
I’m not crazy about the black background, but that’s personal preference. It is really hard to see Jones’s line and name, though—might need a new font color choice. Beltran’s a bit hard to read as well.
Also, the HoF zone line got modified somehow—it’s width should run roughly from 7.4 to 6.4 WAR in the best season. The line as depicted is kind of meaningless, as it’s half-way between Jeff’s “HOF Replacement” line and the average HOF’r.
Finally, I’m not entirely sure that it’s a legit thing to do to run these graphs on active players. They often will add additional seasons that will make their line slope more shallow. It’s fine to do it, I just wanted to note that it’s something that should be done with caution & caveats.
-j
by JinAZ on Oct 1, 2009 11:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Are you really seeing a black background? You may need to check your monitor.
The other input is fantastic and will be considered for the next one.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Oct 1, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
background
I see a black background too. Or least very dark gray.
by centris on Oct 1, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
er...dark?
It’s not white. It’s probably because my training is in science and not graphic design, but I prefer the white background that came with my spreadsheet. As I said, though, it’s a style thing—you guys can do what you want. :)
-j
by JinAZ on Oct 1, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beltran is like 32
And in full power (unlike Andruw), he doesnt fit this comparison imo
by viktor06 on Oct 1, 2009 11:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Black background must go. I’ve yet to see any website pull off a black background that is not a turn off.
The data source is BaseballProjection.com, not Fangraphs (or is it?).
The HOF lines I’ve already provided on my site (I think).
And for still active players, the charts are unfair comparisons to the retired ones.
by tangotiger on Oct 1, 2009 11:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the HOF lines originally came from Jeff Zimmerman
With subsequent input from you, Tango. But otherwise, I agree.
I think they might have been using FanGraphs in this case, but I’m not sure.
-j
by JinAZ on Oct 1, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WAR
The WAR on FanGraphs only goes back to 2002, so if they are the must be switching to something else for the for the years before that.
by centris on Oct 1, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tango is right. Credit/sources fixed.
I disagree on the visual effect of the dark background, but I can certainly experiment with other solutions.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Oct 1, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't feel lonely.
I like the dark background. It’s a little hard to focus on the other data lines because the HoF Zone line is so bright (and it appears to be a layer on top of the other lines — perhaps instead it should be beneath them all since it has a constant slope?), so I think this might just be an issue with contrasting colors. Maybe it would work better if the HoF Zone were just a lighter color of gray?
by jwiscarson on Oct 1, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep, exactly.
That is exactly what I intend on doing on the next one of these. I’ll have a broader, lighter HoF zone line in the BG.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Oct 1, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's also worth noting
That quantitative estimates of Kenny Lofton’s defense vary pretty widely, and I believe Rally’s WAR has him higher than just about every other estimate.
by Tommy Bennett on Oct 1, 2009 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
arm
Not disputing this. But one of the reasons is that Lofton has a good effective arm rating, and most fielding stats don’t consider arm like Rally’s data does.
-j
by JinAZ on Oct 1, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A fair point
Although it’s not AS useful for a CF
by Tommy Bennett on Oct 1, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say it's MORE useful for a center field, considering how many more times he fields the ball than corner outfielders.
Or maybe that’s just my strat background talking.
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by Sky Kalkman on Oct 1, 2009 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never had the greatest arm in the world either
Sean says it’s probably because he was so fast to the ball that he did a good job holding runners that way.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
by SFiercex4 on Oct 1, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right
Which is why I said effective arm. However he did it, he held runners very well. -j
by JinAZ on Oct 1, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeap
I agree, just wanted to be included in the conversation.
Marlin Maniac, a Florida Marlins blog
Check me out at Beyond the Box Score as well.
by SFiercex4 on Oct 1, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kenny Lofton
he was one of my favorite players growing up, but i never thought of him as a HoFer. this graph just smacked me upside the brain and said, “think again!”
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 1, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jr and Damon
just for comparisons sake I’d love to see Jr and Damon added to the chart
by mhowes666 on Oct 1, 2009 6:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
After seeing this on two different monitors, both SD and HD,
it DEFINITELY looks darker on SD monitors. I will absolutely correct this. Your eyes deserve better.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Oct 1, 2009 6:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I disagree about Mike Cameron.
According to a chart posted earlier this year on this very site, it said that he was more valuable then Jim Rice over his career. If he is more valuable then the most feared hitter of an era, most definitely, Mike Cameron deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.
50!
by joof on Oct 1, 2009 9:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Updated the OP with new graph.
Thanks for all the input. Definitely a better product.
"What we do in life, echoes in eternity!"
by Justin Bopp on Oct 2, 2009 1:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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