So I haven’t used any. I would recommend CHONE’s projections, a community-based estimate, or some weighted average of the past few seasons using bUZR, Dewan’s +/-, or PMR.

I entered the Twins data and baserunning/defense is definitely in wins.

as he notes in bullet #2 to work in run versus wins.

Just one of those things, like ‘less’ vs. ‘fewer’.

… I’d create a permanent link to a google docs or edit grid page housing the spreadsheet. You could fill it out yourself or let the community vote on all players, or some combination of the two (you initially and you could modify it if the consensus says so). As players and playing time expectations change, modify the sheet, but keep it always at the same link. Maybe make weekly posts to note changes you’ve made. Or if a major change takes place, make note immediately. As a team blogger, how well does that work?

As for bringing these projections together across multiple teams, there’s room for discussion. Ideally, there’d be one “official” sheet for each team and owners of those sheets would have access to update some master doc with 30 tabs. And/or one sheet with all projected WAR totals so someone could normalize them (assuming they average out to significantly more than 81 wins).

One problem is that multiple people will likely project each team. Whose projection do we use? Do I ask for first-come first-served volunteers? Pick someone I trust the most (not this one)? Designate a team coordinator who averages all projections for their team?

You want to estimate how many runs a pitcher will allow and how many innings they’ll pitch. The ERA scale isn’t perfect because it doesn’t include unearned runs, but it’s not a big deal. You obviously want to use a decent ERA projection, not one based on previous year’s ERAs. Use FIP, xFIP, tRA (times .92), tRA* (times .92) or any projection that’s based on skills, not actual ERA.

to simply “RA” or “FIP RA” to avoind the confusion. Whatever communicates that this is not ERA, but rather a fielding independent representation of pitching runs.

CHONE’s speed score would be decent, although speed isn’t the be-all and end-all of baserunning. You’ll need to turn his speed scores into ratings on the negative .5 to positive .5 baserunning wins scale, though.

Pitching is meh, tried to account for LaRussa bullpen usage.

Hilarious. If the Cards project anything like they performed last year, hitting and fielding are huge strengths while the pitching is double meh.

If you need a note for your advisor, let me know.

Positions should vary around the 700 number most definitely, although there’s no easy way to plug in lineups. I do add up “outs” made by each team by assuming the team’s OBP is exactly their wOBA (a bad assumption for OBP-heavy or SLG-heavy teams). The “outs targets” listed assume 700 PAs from 8 or 9 (depending on NL or AL) positions at a .335 OBP/wOBA. I also give IP targets based on averages from last year.

It may not win the division, but it might shut Bernie Miklasz up.

but you have Pineiro as a 2.7 WAR. That has to be a mistake

I’m surprised more people haven’t questioned some of the numbers I used. I assume that will come as people actually use the spreadsheet. I’d like to discuss some of the choices eventually…