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What's the Fuss? #3 Tim Redding

Tim Redding is a free agent commodity.   Sort of.

The righty from Rochester became a free agent after the Nationals non-tendered him - making him their only arbitration eligible player to be shown the door.  According to mlb.com, Washington made the decision after being unable to move him to Colorado at Las Vegas meetings. 

Redding made $1 million in 2008, and was due for a raise via arbitration.  Now that he's a free agent, he may not even get a guaranteed deal.  Eric Seidman pondered the Redding question a couple weeks ago, listing four suitors.  Even now, Jon Heyman has him as a top 20 free agent (of what's left), 8th amongst pitchers.

 7 Jon Garland
10 Derek Lowe
11 Oliver Perez
12 Andy Pettitte
14 Ben Sheets
16 Randy Wolf
18 Freddy Garcia
20 Tim Redding

I don't exactly agree with these rankings - Jon Garland? Really?  But, there you have it.  Nonetheless, I think Redding may indeed be a nice bargain - if you set your expectations correctly.

With the Rockies apparently set with Jason Marquis, and Heyman not mentioning the Rangers (as Eric had), the Mets and Orioles remain.  With Mark Hendrickson gone to Balitmore, suddenly the fuss over Redding, and his job options, thin out.  Especially with the Mets still talking to Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez.

Redding had a decent year for Washington, setting career highs in starts, innings and strike-outs.  Ten wins was enough to both lead the club and match his career high.  Redding also gave up 11 more home runs than he ever had before.  Counting stats are a double-edged sword.

If someone does offer him a deal, here's what they'll be getting.  A 5'11" righty who throws the basic four pitches:

  • Change (CH): easy to put in play, but doesn't get hit too hard
  • Curveball (CU): seems to place it well enough, but a lack of sink may explain why it is fairly easy to hit
  • Fastball (FA): very average, maybe ever so slightly below.  Almost all are four-seamers, but he may mix a cutter or sinker in.
  • Slider (SL): isn't very nasty, and average in effectiveness

if you need definitions for any of the following, click the "pitchfx" tag at the end of the post

Redding02_medium

cfx # mph pfx_x pfx_z deg rpm
CH 217 83.3 -5.7 6.4 222.1 1,038.9
CU 412 78.3 6.6 -1.4 205.5 782.9
FA 2098 91.6 -5.1 9.2 208.5 1,390.6
SL 594 85.5 1.8 4.7 161.1 662.7

His stuff even looks slightly below average. 

Star-divide

Redding01_medium
The inset looks like a big smear of pitches, but, park by park, game by game, they are fairly distinct.  Still, all pitches are on a continuum, we just try and give them discrete labels.

Let's go into the outcomes/effectiveness.

cfx # LHH RHH Swing Whiff B:CS ISZ Paint Chase Watch
CH 217 201 16 0.484 0.133 10.2 0.244 0.115 0.366 0.151
CU 412 214 198 0.563 0.172 7.2 0.328 0.100 0.415 0.133
FA 2098 1104 994 0.431 0.139 1.9 0.437 0.121 0.277 0.371
SL 594 213 381 0.493 0.222 3.1 0.416 0.125 0.319 0.263
3321 1732 1589 0.462 0.160 2.5 0.407 0.118 0.311 0.319

Notice the low whiff rates (fastball's not bad, though).  His stuff doesn't seem to fool anyone.

cfx B:CS ISZ FatIns FIISZ Swing InPlay HR Foul Whiff nkSLG TBP
CH 10.2 0.244 0.120 0.491 0.484 0.600 0.019 0.248 0.133 0.462 0.138
CU 7.2 0.328 0.209 0.637 0.563 0.461 0.017 0.349 0.172 0.514 0.138
FA 1.9 0.437 0.280 0.641 0.431 0.369 0.022 0.469 0.139 0.548 0.092
SL 3.1 0.416 0.264 0.636 0.493 0.355 0.014 0.410 0.222 0.481 0.088
2.5 0.407 0.258 0.634 0.462 0.396 0.020 0.424 0.160 0.522 0.100

So, he seems to be a bit of nibbler - throws less fat pitches than average and his B:CS is on the higher side.  His stuff just isn't all that great, but he manages to avoid getitng hit all that hard.  If I had to pick an average looking big league pitcher, Redding would probably be on the short list.

Looking around at a few projections, Redding projects to around 4.90 next year (think between 4.6 and 5.2).  170 innings at 4.90 is about 1 WAR.  Which would be worth $4.5 million at 2008 prices.  Using FIP, Fangraphs' Eric Seidman has him at 1.3.

Redding may be Mr. Average, but he may be a good bargain - he could end up being worth as much as $6.5 million but could end up getting just around $1 million, again.

0 recs | Comment 21 comments

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Comments

Display:

Heyman ranking Garland seventh is a joke.

He’s probably not the seventh best SP left, not along the seventh best overall.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 3, 2009 5:18 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Heyman always seems to want people to scratch their heads

in wonder. He succeeded here.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jan 3, 2009 6:15 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, I don't think even Jon Heyman would consciously name Bobby Abreu the #1 remaining free agent

Like Larry pointed out, the first 16 are in alphabetical order. I think he added the last 4 after listing the first 16 and was just too lazy to place them in their alphabetical spots.

by JamesK on Jan 3, 2009 6:50 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well now I can refrain from asking him to stop writing about baseball

I was just getting ready to fire off an email

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jan 3, 2009 7:00 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

20 is certainly a rounder number than 16.

i’m guessing either he or his editor thought a top twenty list made more sense. it’s okay to make a list and not necessarily put it in any order. especially on a blog type thing.

by larry on Jan 3, 2009 7:02 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

jon garland

jon garland is a ace he is the best pitcher out there and I would love to have him on my team . ..Who ever gets him is Lucky. He is going to have a good year in 2009. His era was kind of big in 2008 but it will be lower in 2009 I do not think he really liked being on the Angels . I would like to see him come back to the AL Central.

by kate20 on Jan 3, 2009 11:30 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hm...

Whatever you say, Jon.

by squid92 on Jan 3, 2009 11:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"I would like to see him come back to the AL Central."

So would the White Sox, Indians, Twins, Royals, and Tigers hitters.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 4, 2009 12:16 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well...

He’s durable, at least. If the option is Jon Garland or a crop of replacement-level pitchers, I’d rather the Indians’ hitters face the latter.

Webmaster of Driveline Mechanics
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting

by Kyle Boddy on Jan 4, 2009 5:24 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The best thing I can say about Garland

Put him on a team with a very good infield defense and he’s a very good #4 starter. I think his days of being a reliable, average or a bit better #3 SP (2003-06) are well behind him and won’t be seen again. He’s down in #4 territory now, but gets enough groundballs that a good IF defense can still help him more than most pitchers.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 4, 2009 12:41 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BTW

I missed this before, but Rosenthal says Redding is looking for two-years. If all the reporting is accurate, I guess you can say Redding and the Rockies were never close.

by Harry Pavlidis on Jan 4, 2009 1:04 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jon Garland

You have to be joking . Are you kidding me ? Jon Garland is an ace you have not seen his best year yet he will be a 20 game winner he is so good he just had a bad year with the Angels . You know he is only 29 years old , he has a lot of good years ahead of him , Any team would want him on their team.

by kate20 on Jan 5, 2009 10:14 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Larry inspires me

there aren’t many blind baseball fans, or readers of this blog. Thanks for posting.

by Harry Pavlidis on Jan 5, 2009 11:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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