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Position Adjustments Across the Decades

Sean Smith penned a neat article at Fangraphs yesterday, addressing the topic of historical defense-based positional adjustments.  He used TotalZone, his own fielding metric based on quasi-play-by-play data from Retrosheet, and compared how players fared at multiple positions within the same season.  Let's see the summary graph:


Ssposadj_medium


While a rolling average of year-by-year data would have been even better, there are some definite trends to pick out from the graph:

  • Shortstop (the blue line at the top) has gradually seen less and less talented defenders.  One reason is that strikeouts are up, leaving fewer balls in play to turn into outs.  Another is that general managers have probably become less obsessed with a glove-only shortstop, especially with offense on the rise.
  • Second base and third base (red and yellow lines) are pretty much equivalently talented positions, except for the 1980s.  Why the hiccup?  I'm not exactly sure.  From the 1960s and 1970s, defense at both positions is down the same amount -- evidently managers decided to make the change at third base ten years before second base.  That gap in the 1980s is probably why fans today have a hard time believing second and third base are equally important defensively.  That, and the fact that we're enjoying a Golden Age of offensive third basemen.
  • Center field (green line) has slowly become a more important defensive position over the past fifty years, and the corner outfield spots (purple line) have pretty much held constant.  I'm not really sure why, although perhaps it just took a while for people to figure out that center fielders can make a much larger impact on the game than originally thought.

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That gap in the 1980s is probably why fans today have a hard time believing second and third base are equally important defensively. That, and the fact that we’re enjoying a Golden Age of offensive third basemen.

My problem with this is purely unscientific. It’s merely that I can think of dozens of guys who were better defenders at 3B than at 2B, but only a handful who were better defenders at 2B than 3B. In addition, there are plenty of players who at least faked 3B decently who I can’t envision having the athleticism to cover 2B in a million years (Aubrey Huff anyone?). On the other hand, I suppose there are nearly as many 2Bs who can handle that position fine but who I wouldn’t want to cover third because of their arms or lack thereof. This is recent, not in the 80’s. I’ve been watching baseball for about 15 years now, so what happened back then shouldn’t be clouding my mind.

I just have this inherent feeling that there are more major league quality hitters who can play 3B than major league quality hitters who can play 2B, and thus the positional scarcity should create more value for a 2B. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the 2Bs are better defenders, but the fact that they can play 2B at all creates a little bit of value.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Jan 27, 2009 5:43 PM EST reply actions  

That's similar to how I feel

It’s a little different since I’m thinking about this more from a fantasy baseball standpoint but it seems to me like its a lot harder to find a guy who can play 2B then a guy who can play 3B. I don’t think this is a trend that will change anytime soon either. I think I remember too looking over like BA or BP’s prospect lists last year/two years ago and feeling the same, like the only 2B on top 100 lists were Eric Patterson and Matt Antonelli, whereas there are a lot of options at 3rd.

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by iamawesomer on Jan 27, 2009 6:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I think that's an artifact

A lot of fake SS get moved to 2B, and a lot of fake 3B get moved to corner OF or 1B. So you see a lot more guys with their position listed as short or third, but the actual resource scarcity between 2B and 3B is much closer than it appears.

Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"

by PaulThomas on Jan 27, 2009 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

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