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Community Projections Best Practices

So with almost 75% of the teams now having leaders for our Community Projections Project, I thought it would be smart to let everyone share their experiences so far.  This thread is for sharing ideas, solving problems, and increasing motivation.

Feel free to link to anything helpful you or others have written.  Feel free to suggest third-party tools that will make things easier.  Feel free to share your frustrations.  And feel free to help others solve their frustrations.

I'll start with some things I've noticed going on:

  • jihad over at BrewCrewBall wrote a very good introduction.  And the first two comments in Doghouse's Nationals' intro post are a great question and answer combo.
  • Some blogs (DRaysBay, for example) have successfully gone player by player asking for OBP/SLG/PA projections.  Some have grouped positions together (infielders, starters, etc.)  Some have tried to post one all-inclusive thread and asked for comments on everything.  That last one seems to have broken down every time's it's tried, but I've also heard bloggers say reader interest can break down if you go player by player.
  • Some folks asked readers to provide projections from scratch (maybe posting the last few years' data as a jumping off point) and some started with CHONE projections and asked readers to argue for bumping specific players up or down.
  • devil_fingers brought up percentiles in his (not short) Royals post.  He entered CHONE's 50th percentile projection into the spreadsheet, and asked readers to think about who would under-perform that level in addition to players they thought would over-perform it.  Not a bad way to tell people to mix the optimism with some realism.  Update: Slyde provided 30th through 70th percentile OBP/SLG projections to help his readers.
  • You've probably pick up on it, but my favorite algorithmic projection system is CHONE.  PECOTA is also excellent, but isn't free and isn't out yet for 2009.  ZiPS and THT aren't bad, either.  I tend to steer clear of fantasy baseball proejctions, Bill James' system, and Marcel.  The last two aren't bad, but BJ is overly optimistic and advanced systems start with Marcel, but evolve into something better (at a minimum, CHONE is Marcel but with minor league data.)
  • The algorithmic projection systems tend to do much better with rate stats than playing time.  They don't know about injuries, managerial tendencies, and roster construction, but fans do.  Predicting playing time should be the main strength of our community projections.
  • Linking to the EditGrid workbook (no, I don't know how to link to a specific sheet) is obviously one way to share what you've put into it, but getting readers to follow links can be tough.  As an alternative, you can take screen shots and post jpgs of relevant data.  Or you can imbed a "portal" of selected cells in a post (select the range of cells, go to "Publish", select "Cell/range...", and copy the code.)
  • Colin Wyers created a cool form for readers to input their projections. To copy it for your own team, go to "More Actions" and then "Copy Application".  Slyde from Red Reporter has imbedded the form into his projection post, which look awesome.  (This won't work with FanPosts, though -- maybe talk to the head blogger and ask for front page privileges for this project?)  Warning: you'll to do some Excel-type work after collecting all the projections, although there will be help if you need it.
  • If you're looking for tips on actually using the spreadsheet, you can check out the original spreadsheet post (you can download your own copy, too), email me, or ask in the comments.  There are also 140+ comments in the original Community Projections post.
  • I'm tagging all these posts with "2009 community projections".  Feel free to do the same to help readers click through to others' discussions/projections.

Comment away!

Eight teams still need volunteer leaders: PIT, SDN, NYA, CHA, CLE, DET, LAA, and SEA.

0 recs  |  Comment 22 comments

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herre's an idea

I’ll use Colin’s form to have people enter stuff in… but instead of average the projections themselves or with CHONE, if the projections are more optimistic than CHONE’s I’ll bump the player up a percentile (or midway between), if less so, then down…

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 20, 2009 3:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I brought this up at LSB.

And, for the most part, I was shot down because they do a community projection every year, and want to wait for that and kill two birds with one stone.

by philkid3 on Jan 20, 2009 4:45 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Feel free to wait.

Maybe enter the CHONEs for now if the wait will be a long time, just so there’s something to play with?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 20, 2009 5:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not necessarily applicable for others

I haven’t had that much success formally getting community projections going (either overall or for individual players) but I’ve done pretty well by just keeping up in the message-board conversation at OriolesHangout, as well as on other online outlets for O’s info.

For example, when Koji Uehara signed, people naturally started prediction how he’ll do next year. I have an Excel workbook with a sheet for each player in which I keep track of all predictions – both numerical projections and things like “I think he’ll be an OK fifth starter”, which I’d include in the average as a 5.50 ERA or something like that. Plus, people put up polls like “What’s Garrett Olson’s ERA next year?” with several ranges and that gets a large amount of participation. It’s not as exact, but it does provide a good reasonableness check.

It is still early, so I expect things to pick up as we get into Spring Training.

by KakesForROY on Jan 20, 2009 6:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

NYA unlikely

I don’t think you will be able to get a Yankees fan to do this. The only math they know how to do is count how much money they just spent.

by drabidea on Jan 20, 2009 8:05 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Hahahhaa

I like the Replacement Level Yankees blog though

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

Your 2009 Opening Day starter at second base*: Eugenio Velez
*For the Fresno Grizzlies

by baetown415 on Jan 21, 2009 2:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I suspect Ducksnorts will do something for San Diego, Lee Panas probably for Detroit Tiger Tales, and for the Angels…. umm, I guess you could just ask Mr. Smith himself.

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

Your 2009 Opening Day starter at second base*: Eugenio Velez
*For the Fresno Grizzlies

by baetown415 on Jan 21, 2009 2:51 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I have the link up for projections

If you are interested to see what Colin’s embedded form looks like, it is here.

We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches

by Slyde on Jan 21, 2009 10:09 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

well

I think the Royals projections are pretty much done for now, until people start getting cut, and/or ZiPS and PECOTA come out. I expected more resistance to the rather depressing projection of 77.5 wins, but I probably oversold the “we want to be objective” thing. Even my offer of letting them enter their own projections got a “I’d rather go with CHONE” response.

Sorry if I blew it.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 21, 2009 11:43 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

maybe we'll also do a separate projection

purely from the fans with Colin’s form, and then compare the two… that would be interesting, to say the least

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 21, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think it's necessary to stress realism in expectations.

Personally, I didn’t even link to the CHONE projections (or any other projections) when I gave directions for my projections. If I want the CHONE projections, I’ll just use those.

For instance, here’s some early returns (yesterday afternoon) from the projection form I have, along with the CHONE projections, in wOBA:

Name Community CHONE
Aaron Miles 0.301 0.307
Alfonso Soriano 0.383 0.369
Aramis Ramirez 0.412 0.382
Derrek Lee 0.378 0.379
Geovany Soto 0.384 0.357
Joey Gathright 0.272 0.319
Kosuke Fukudome 0.375 0.355
Koyie Hill 0.255 0.297
Micah Hoffpauir 0.328 0.348
Mike Fontenot 0.361 0.343
Milton Bradley 0.404 0.39
Reed Johnson 0.320 0.336
Ronny Cedeno 0.319 0.328
Ryan Theriot 0.327 0.328
Grand Total 0.372 0.354

(And yes, that Fontenot projection is after I dropped the Fontenot’s Mother ballot.)

I do have the benefit of a larger blog community to draw from, compared to most fanbases, but when I’ve done this in years past really once you get past 10 ballots you tend to see only incremental changes.

I’d argue that the fans are probably a bit too optimistic, but I know that ahead of time and I can correct for that myself. Essentially what I’m after here is those cases where the Fans and the regression-based projections differ significantly. Cubs fans think that Lee’s decline in performance in 2008 is more relevant than CHONE seems to. (The numbers are idential, sure, but I think a league average hitter on a Fan’s ballot is probably closer to a .350 wOBA than a .340.) Are they being too emotional, or do they see something CHONE doesn’t? Cubs fans are less impressed by Hoffpaiur than his projection suggests (largely, I think, because his plate discipline is horrifying). That’s the sort of information I’m interested in when I run fan projections.

To that end, I try to encourage as much input from the community as possible. If I simply wanted Rally’s projections I’d download his CSV file and save myself the effort. So I really try to stay out of the way and let the community come to their own conclusions. If they really want to forecast the Cubs as a .450 wOBA team on average, then that’s what happens.

But that doesn’t seem to happen. For the most part, the Fans are very, very reasonable about the exercise. Being too strict about the thing discourages participation, and that’s exactly what you don’t want. Your biggest safety valve in doing this sort of exercise is large amounts of participation.

(The other key is to encourage a sense of competition – let everyone put a name on their projection, keep the ballots public and perhaps frame it as some sort of contest. Having a point of pride in their projection is the biggest motivation to keeping a ballot realistic.)

by cwyers on Jan 21, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, Colin

it’s a good point. Maybe I’ll start again in a couple of weeks with a “purely” community projection, as I said, and then we can compare it to CHONE, etc. I guess I thought that Sky wanted something else.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 21, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

As to what "I wanted"

I wasn’t really sure. I wasn’t really clear. And I definitely wasn’t sure that was I REALLY wanted was implementable. I’m enjoying seeing where this is going and trying to steer as little as possible.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 21, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wasn't trying to put anything on you

I guess that I thought more people would be more passionate at RR. Maybe some of us drove others away by our, um, vigorous unhappiness with “certain” signings that will go unnamed.

I guess things shouldn’t vary too much, though. Just for fun, I left the playng time, etc., exactly the same, except with wOBA/FIP from Bill James, and go “all the way” up to 80.5 wins… Geez. In other words, I’m not sure there would have been a big variation.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 21, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Passion at RR

I think if asked for a straight community projection, we’d get a lot of responses. “Give me the stat line for Player X.” That’s quick, easy and user-friendly. Well, it can take as much time as a person wants to devote to it, but everyone can come up with a BA/OBP/SLG, PA, HR, RBI, etc. What you asked for was more complicated, more structured and required more thought. That sort of thing is going to drive down your response rate.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 6:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Example

The RCI gets lots of votes because it is simple and straightforward.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 22, 2009 6:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah,

I’m taking the blame for this one for the way I resented it — I, rather than the RR readers, am to blame )although I don’t think it turned out too badly). Maybe when we do the “heart and guy” thing, you can do the post, and I’ll just set up the forms to come straight to me or you… that would be fun, too.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 22, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Of Cubs fans submitting ballots

How many submitted projects for all (or most) of the hitters? How many just did a few. Of those who just did a few, how many started at the top of the list and how many picked and chose the players they wanted to forecast?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 21, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

As of these results:

Aaron Miles 5
Alfonso Soriano 17
Aramis Ramirez 9
Derrek Lee 19
Geovany Soto 27
Joey Gathright 2
Kosuke Fukudome 8
Koyie Hill 4
Micah Hoffpauir 3
Mike Fontenot 9
Milton Bradley 10
Reed Johnson 2
Ronny Cedeno 2
Ryan Theriot 14

Soto is first and seems to be the most popular choice, but Koyie Hill is second and he’s down there on the balloting.

by cwyers on Jan 21, 2009 11:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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