Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Around SBN: Ole Miss-Alabama: "Let's Go Eat.Wait. What Happened?"

Randy Wolf - Fastballs Against Righties

Randy Wolf, like many starting pitchers, regularly uses two different fastballs.  The four-seamer and the two-seamer are both important tools for Wolf. 

I took a look at Wolf a few days back over at Cubs f/x, as Chicago is one of many possible destinations for the free agent lefty.  I left off at this point:

Two Most Likely Pitches by Situation and Batter Hand

          
LHH RHH
First F4 SL F2 CU
Even F4 SL F4 CU
Ahead F4 SL F4 CU
Behind F4 SL F2 CH
Full F4 SL F4 F2
All F4 SL F2 F4

This raises some questions about how effective he is, same metrics as above, but by batter hand/situation. If the Cubs actually sign the guy, I'll take look at that.

I'm not going to wait for him to sign - let's dig into that fastball selection against righties.  First, broken down by specific count.

#BSF2 F4
845 0 0 0.5408 0.0805
374 0 1 0.1604 0.1898
207 0 2 0.0725 0.6570
364 1 0 0.5577 0.1099
296 1 1 0.1723 0.1622
287 1 2 0.0488 0.5157
129 2 0 0.6279 0.1163
178 2 1 0.3876 0.1292
259 2 2 0.0927 0.4788
34 3 0 0.9412 0.0588
77 3 1 0.6364 0.1039
147 3 2 0.2653 0.4422

A graph might help, too.  First, let me explain what you're about to see.

Star-divide

To create this graph, I simply took the total # of pitches by count for right-handed batters.  That gave me a sample of 3,197 pitches.  About 1,355 were something other than a fastball. 

To sort the graph, I took the difference between the two-seam and four-seam rates and put the "more two-seamers" as the top. 

Here's what I ended up with.

Wolf01_medium
The two-seam prevails when there are no strikes.  Unless it's 3-1, the one strike counts get more off-speed and breaking stuff.  With two strikes, the two-seamer fades away in favor of the four-seam. 

Keeping the same sort, here's a look at where those pitches go.

Wolf02_medium

Keep in mind, a left-handed two-seamer naturally moves outside on a righty (more than the four-seam by a few inches), and you see a fairly consistent lean to the outside in this slicing of the zone.  On the 0-2 counts, where Wolf almost never goes to the two-seam, he also consistently misses the zone up or down (the "other" bar, which is not plotted).

This is his strike zone plot, all counts, catcher's view.

Wolf04_medium

Up-and-Away.

Now, Wolf's four-seam fastballs.

Wolf03_medium

Wolf05_medium

That's much more even distribution, as you can see in both charts.  Wolf also keeps the four-seam up more than the two-seam, which isn't exactly used to pound the lower half, either.

The biggest difference between four- and two-seam fastballs for Wolf is the inside location.  He'll hit it, and well inside, with the four-seam but not the two-seam. 

There are two sets of counts were he's not likely to throw either fastball, but just about equally likely to throw one or the other.  Let's zoom in on those slices.

Wolf06_medium

Notice the four-seam's outside slices - we're not talking about a big sample here, but the Wolf's tendency appears to go well outside, if outside at all.

Wolf07_medium

With an 0-1 count, Wolf is more aggressive with the four-seam fastball, but moves the two-seam even further out.  Again, limited sample, but a tendency, perhaps.

Here's another look at location.  I'll use pitches in the rule-book zone (ISZ), the as-played zone (IWZ) and fat/middle-in pitches (FatIns) and the rate of fatins to strikes (FIISZ).

Wolf ISZ IWZ FatIns FIISZ
F2 0.527 0.654 0.355 0.672
F4 0.416 0.529 0.314 0.756

To give this some context, here are some numbers from a much larger sample of pitchers (33k four-seamers and 23k two-seamers):

 All 
ISZ IWZ FatIns FIISZ
F2 0.399 0.532 0.262 0.657
F4 0.435 0.562 0.300 0.689

Both pitches are fatter than average, and Wolf throws a ton of strikes with the two-seamer.  Wolf's percentage of four-seamers that are not just strikes, but fat strikes (FIISZ) is on the high side.  That's a result of the slightly below average ISZ and above average FatIns.

What's off kilter is Wolf's two-seam is more of a strike pitch, while, for most other pitchers, it's the four-seam.  With the exception of FIISZ, Wolf is the opposite of the "league" sample.

Balls in play and their outcomes.

 All 

Swing

In Play/Sw
HR/Sw nkSLG
F2 0.445 0.407 0.012 0.505
F4 0.578 0.296 0.009 0.500

A couple more:

 All 

In Play/Pitch

TBP
Foul/Sw
F2 0.181 0.094 0.458
F4 0.171 0.088 0.521

The four-seam does get more swings (and chases out of the zone, BTW) and is tougher to put in play.  Factor in the swing rate, you end up getting as many balls in play from either pitch (In Play/Pitch).  The two-seamer actually gets hit a little bit harder, which is not what I expected (see point #3).

Wolf has pretty distinct ways of using his two fastballs, and ends up with a bit of an atypical profile in the process.   So, he ended up being a decent case study and playground for some of my new toys. 

Some of the ideas knocked around in some eariler threads include topics like inefficiency - throwing to a certain location on a certain count that may be counter-productive, for example.  I think there is genuine opportunity to start teasing out the quality of the stuff from the quality of the location from the quality of the selection.

0 recs  |  Comment 1 comment

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

770insig_small
BtB's "Ball On A Budget" Fantasy League - Discuss Participants, Payrolls and Position Eligibility

Recent FanPosts

Ds9_small
good graphing program?
Small
Predicting HR/FB Rates
Leopold_butter_scotch_southpark_small
Troy Tulowitzki vs Ryan Braun
Small
Pitchers batted ball observations
Small
Eric Byrnes: A player worth a look?
Small
Valverde Is Charging Detroit Double
Mukuro_small
Another question: About power rankings
Small
Why You Shouldn't Trade for Arroyo
Jinaz-reds-avatar_small
Last Call for BtB Sabermetric Writing Award Nominations

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

If you care about newspaper coverage of MLB, read this post
Visualizing the Difference Between Offensive and Defensive Value for Catchers
First B-Pro and now ESPN. Tommy, you're growing up so fast
THT - Advancing by ground
Negro League Museum Close to Folding
It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one...
Ranking Minor League Systems Using Victors Wang's Prospect Valuations
Pitch f/x on Ricky Nolasco Stretch vs. Windup again
Veron Wells the artist.  I never knew.

http://www.vwellsart.com/
A Dream Team... in honor of Dr. King

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Jeff: @jeffwzimmerman
Steve: @steve_sommer
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Most Commented

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Wbc_029_small Jeff Sullivan

Editors

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Roots_game_small R.J. Anderson

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

Ozzie_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Redcap_small SFiercex4

St_louis_cardinals_ce1141_003263_small stevesommer05

Paige_small Satchel Price