Cole Hamels Signs Extension

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 17, 2009 1:22 PM EST

Per Jon Heyman:

Ace left-hander Cole Hamels and the Philadelphia Phillies have reached agreement on a three-year extension worth $20.5 million, SI.com has learned.

The new deal will pay the Phillies' World Series hero $4.35 million this coming season, then $6.65 million in 2010 and $9.5 million in 2011

.Hamel was arbitration eligible, and other the past three years has averaged roughly 3.6 wins. Assuming he's around that next season, and then declines by 0.3 wins over the next three years, Hamels would be worth 56 million on the free agent market. Instead, Hamels is only entering arbitration, and adjusting his salary for such, Hamels is worth about 32 million.

Hamels going to have to bomb hard if the Phillies don't make a profit off of this deal.

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I disagree

Where did you get the 32m figure?

No pitcher has gotten that much from first three years of arb.

by viktor06 on Jan 17, 2009 3:00 PM EST reply actions

.4 * first year worth + .6 * second year worth + .8 * third year worth

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 17, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

3.6 + 3.3 + 3.0 WAR = 9.9 total WAR, right?

Let’s call it 10. 10 x $4.8MM = $48MM, plus one for rep level payment. That $49MM open market.

Using the arb scalars, that’s $4.8MM x (3.6 x .4 + 3.3 + .6 + 3.0 x .8) = $4.8MM x (1.4 WAR + 2.0 WAR + 2.4 WAR) = $4.8MM x 5.8 WAR = $28MM (plus $1MM for min yields $29MM). If you go with $4.5MM per win (assuming the FA market didn’t increase this off-season), it’s $27MM

So I pretty much agree with RJ, although I get slightly lower numbers. Who have been the last few big arbitration starters? What did they earn?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jan 17, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions

The only difference

Was I included the inflation in the money per win. So 4.8, 5.32, and 5.86.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 17, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

seems like expecting that kind of inflation per win may not be a good assumption

Jerry [Owens] is considered to be a leadoff hitter.

by larry on Jan 17, 2009 5:05 PM EST up reply actions

Perhaps not.

That’s how Tango has evaluated deals in the past though.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 17, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions

i understand that.

but in an environment where deflation is expected overall in the economy and baseball revenue will certainly fall, one might need to consider changing their assumption.

Jerry [Owens] is considered to be a leadoff hitter.

by larry on Jan 17, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions

How quickly will an arbitrator react?

Is overall economic climate something that would help a team’s case in an arbitration or can the player successfully argue that shouldn’t affect his value?

by Dan Turkenkopf on Jan 18, 2009 9:56 PM EST up reply actions

oh, sorry.

i doubt it would matter considering past deals are what they are compared to for arbitration. i was getting more at the expected increase in the cost of a win in the free agent market. i’d certainly question it going up a half million a year over the next couple offseasons.

Jerry [Owens] is considered to be a leadoff hitter.

by larry on Jan 18, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions

Thats the problem

There really wasnt a recent pitcher of that caliber…so the arb couldve been conservative. Wang jumps out as comparison – worse pitcher, more hype….

I guess only time will tell

by viktor06 on Jan 17, 2009 5:54 PM EST up reply actions

Did some research

Dontrelle Willis – 1st year arb after his monster season – 4.35M (avoided), 2nd year 6.45M(avoided)
Carlos Zambrano – 1st year 3.76M, 2nd year 6.5M, 3rd year 12.4M (all avoided)
Scott Kazmir – 1st year 3.75M

Those are the most comparable, and yeah its pretty much in line. Dontrelle seems like the best comparison, young lefty who dominated the season.

I think Hamels would get something like 5M-8M-12M, so yeah pretty good deal for Phillies.

by viktor06 on Jan 17, 2009 6:03 PM EST up reply actions