Community WAR Project 2009
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 19, 2009 10:31 AM EST
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PrintHere's a chance for us internet know-it-alls to put our knowledge to the test. Using the easy-to-use WAR spreadsheet (good instructions for rookies can be found via that link, too), we're going to project the 2009 performance of all thirty teams, player by player.
Eventually, this EditGrid spreadsheet will be filled with team projections. Notice that anyone can view the document, but you need a password to modify it. What I'm looking for is a volunteer from each team to:
- Input initial team projections.
- Encourage discussion at your blog and make changes based on fan consensus.
- Update the page periodically until Opening Day.
- Read and participate in the occasional discussion of best practices here at BtB. (Nothing big, just a way to help promote some consistency across participants.)
If you're interested in being a team coordinator, leave a comment with your team, website, and email address. As I fill volunteers, I'll send you the password to edit your team's page and add links to participating team blogs at the bottom of this thread.
By the time all the teams have data filled in, I'll add a 31st sheet summarizing team win predictions, expected standings, the best hitting teams, the best rotations, etc. Just before Opening Day, I'll compile all the player data and write a series of articles summarizing the community's predicted MVPs, Cy Youngs, and best players at each position.
NL East
ATL - Talking Chop
FLA - Fish Stripes
NYM - Amazin' Avenue
PHI - The Good Phight
WAS - Federal Baseball
NL Central
CHN - GROTA
CIN - Red Reporter
HOU - The Crawfish Boxes
MIL - Right Field Bleachers
PIT -
STL - Play A Hard Nine
NL West
ARI - AZ Snakepit
COL - Purple Row
LAN - Dodger Sims
SDN -
SFN - McCovey Chronicles
AL East
BAL - Frost King Baseball
BOS - Over The Monster
NYA -
TBA - DRays Bay
TOR - Bluebird Banter
AL Central
CHA -
CLE -
DET -
MIN - Twinkie Town
KCA - Royals Review
AL West
LAA -
OAK - Athletics Nation
SEA -
TEX - Lone Star Ball
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First!
Unless someone else gets there
Sky, you already have my email address
I write for Driveline Mechanics, but I often post at Royals Review, and we already have a thread like the one you suggested.
Can it be me for the Royals? I’m ever so excited due to their excellent offseason moves.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
You're in for the Royals. I'll link to Royals Review, so keep the discussion going there.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 14, 2009 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
OK
I might have to put up a new thread once mine get pushed off the “recommended” page for the new noe
I’m mostly using CHONE, as before
Sorry, I asked this elsewhere, but did we decide what CHONE’s lgwOBA and stuff were? I thought .328, and someone else said .329 (close enough)… asked down below, too
is it ok if I use the FIp numbers instead of ERA, or maybe ERA for starters and FIP for relievers?
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 14, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
No definite answer on CHONE yet, although the quote from Tango in the other thread makes me think it's fine (close enough to .335 not to adjust)
As for ERA/FIP, you’re projecting a true-talent ERA. So the inputs should NOT be ERA, but things like FIP/tRA/xFIP/DIPS/whatever. I call it ERA because it’s on the ERA scale.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 14, 2009 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
I'll give both you and RJ the keys and let you battle it out ; )
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 14, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
We could do this for the Rockies at Purple Row...
But I’ll have you know I’m a lot more of a fuzzy than a techy, so don’t laugh if I make too many mistakes.
You're in. Lots of people are willing to help.
Today’s article about the new spreadsheet has some decent instructions.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 14, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
website in signature,
email jhmoore@wisc.edu
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Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
I was thinking...
Something like 20% Marcel, 40% Chone, 40% community projections?
Not sure on how to do the exact spread but I think something like that would be good.
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
How are you planning on doing these community projections?
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
I was thinking about splitting them between posts on RFB and BCB
If you wanted to run the BCB ones, feel free.
As far as format, I’d say ask them to give projections on playing time for all.
For hitters, give them the option of a AVG/OBP/SLG slash line or a 1B/2B/3B/HR/BB/SO line.
For pitchers, I’m not entirely sure. I’m assuming the ERA projections they’d give would be what they assume their true talent level is.
And then probably chop off the top and bottom 5 or 10%, depending on how many responses we get.
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
On a personal level, I'd like to see community input dictate most of the PA piece.
Using both CHONE and Marcel seems a little weak, as Marcel is demonstrably not up to par with CHONE. It’s basically Marcel, but evolved from monkey to human. A mix of CHONE and community is intriguing.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
That's what I was thinking too.
Not sure exactly how I’ll break down the math on it but that’s the main thing to get from the community.
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
Sure, I can organize it
The populace at BCB should be pretty reliable. There was a community projection last year. They all look pretty high now, but that’s justifiable, the projection systems were all pretty high too.
I’ll explain the whole “true estimate of talent” for ERA concept, though most of the readers will understand that anyway.
I’ll take a bit of devil_fingers’s idea below and provide the 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70th percentile Chone projections, just to show people that want to go really high that they might be a bit off line, to keep it more realistic, and we can throw out the extremes. Judging by last year’s turnout, we should be able to get around 20ish good ones, especially if we’re only requiring slash lines as opposed to a whole line like we did last year.
The playing time issue is probably the toughest thing to project. A good average should result in some pretty reliable projections there too.
If you have any more specifications, just let me know in this thread or if there’s a newer one. My email is on the SBN profile page too.
I’ll get this underway tomorrow, separate for pitchers and hitters.
What about bullpen leverage, btw? Just 1.8 for Hoffman, 1.3 for Villy, and then the rest spread between .7-1?
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
I think we might want to go with 1.2 for Villy and then 1.1 for whatever innings McClung gets out of the pen.
Just because the roles aren’t very well defined at all at this point, but maybe that would be a good thing to ask people as far as playing time goes – give roles for the bullpen.
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
I'll throw that in too
We should have a snow day here in the Appleton area tomorrow due to -30 temps, so I should be home all day to write up a decent description for this.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
This is for the Cubs, right? Bleed Cubbie Blue?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Wait, no, BrewCrewBall?
jhmoore, you have the password. If you want to coordinate with jihad at BCB, go for it.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
We're underway
We’ll be doing the community projections at Brew Crew Ball for the next couple of weeks.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
BCB=Brew Crew Ball
Evil BCB=Bleed Cubbie Blue
We’re just merging the community projections to get a better overall picture, and BCB usually has a bunch of active, smart commenters. We small market teams have to band together to get as big of a projection pool that DRB or any other site has. :)
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
Unfortunately, he doesn't allow comments on his blog
He’s certainly invited to participate on BCB if he wants to. I for one think that the Journal-Sentinel commenters should be involved somehow. It’d be like .300/.370/.500 for Kendall and .200/.220/.300 for Cameron.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
We all know Kendall has the sixth tool.
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 15, 2009 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
that's why we'll just put him as +3 wins on defense
oh good ol unquantifiable catcher defense
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
We prefer to use KUGs
talk to jihad for more on that one
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
Minnesota
If no one else volunteers, I’d be happy to take the Twins. No blog of my own (yet), so I spend most of my time here and at Twinkie Town.
We can start with the projections I posted last week and update based on community discussion, etc.
Email is noted in my profile.
Orioles
I’ve been doing Orioles projections (and will continue to update), though my sheets aren’t exactly the same as yours.
I’m going to cross-post the projections at OriolesHangout for discussion.
http://frostkingbaseball.blogspot.com/2009/01/orioles-2009-war-projections.html
Feel free to use them if you think they’re OK.
Thanks for sharing.
I’d prefer to have everyone use the same spreadsheet/calculations, just to make sure all variation is due to player projections, not methodology. If you’re up for taking the time to keep a different sheet up to grid as part of our project, we’d love to have you.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Ok, I'll hook you up with an email/password tomorrow.
Thanks!
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Wow...
Okay, I just posted the Rockies CHONE projections into the EditGrid spreadsheet you linked up top, and started a discussion thread over at Purple Row. If your win estimator and the projections are accurate, it’s definitely looking like the Rockies are being overlooked heading into the season.
Just throwing it out there to see what people think
When we get it going on Royals Review (if people aren’t sick of it), I’m thinking of a different way of doing “community projections” so that I won’t have to keep recalculating wOBA for every single player, or reminding people that it’s unlikely that half the team will hit their 60th percentile projections while the other half stays at 50, or whatever.
how about this: for every player that people think should be bumped up to their 60th or 70th (or whatever) percentile, another player with fairly equal playing time needs to be bumped down to their 40th or 30th? I still have to recalculate wOBA/FIP for those percentiles, but that wont’ be that far off or complicated. It also gives the community a chance to “customize” the projection without making it overly optimistic (as is then natural tendency of fans).
Is it worth trying? I’m not much of consensus builder, and I was thinking this might help.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
I like the general idea.
“Yes, some players will hit their 60th and 70th percentiles, but some will also hit their 40th and 30th.” Optimism and pessimism should go hand in hand. I don’t know if I’d make it a hard and fast rule, maybe just force a discussion about which players will underperform. I’m sure all teams will be optimistic a bit, and we can remove that in the end. We just don’t want some teams to go CRAZY optimistic, like Bill James.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Bill James is going to represent our 30th percentile
will build up from there
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 14, 2009 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
we'll
98 wins, meet Willie Bloomquist!
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 14, 2009 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
To reiterate here
I was noting above how our BCB projections were a little high last year, and I think most communities would be optomistic in general. I don’t think it should be a “rule”, but it’d be smart to at least show Chone or a similar system 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70th percentile projections. That way the participants would probably err towards the 50, and they would be made aware if they were consistently in the 60 or 70 range. Overall, I think it would be good for those doing community projections to provide some baseline like that so we don’t get off the wall optimistic projections.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
This is smart, fans are hopelessly optimistic
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
Are you going to hold the discussion over at The Good Phight?
I’d really like community input on this, especially on the playing time projections. If so, you’re in.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Yes
Yes, I’ll post the discussion over at The Good Phight. I’ve done some preliminary projections over there already in November but I’m updating my projections based on some research I’ve done and a few playing time things (Utley’s hip, Romero’s suspension, etc.)
by Matt Swartz on Jan 16, 2009 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
Penn student, eh?
My brother is too — in econ, no less — he was ecstatic, yet scared, when they won the WS. And now he’s convinced that if they win both the WS and SB in the same year, the city might literally explode.
"Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play." - Joe Posnanski
You can put me down for St. Louis
http://playahardnine.wordpress.com/
The site is new, but I’ve been the main writer of futureredbirds.net for a long time, and used to write once a week at VEB, so I think I’d get enough feedback from traffic from both sites to make it work. If not, I could run it past one of the guys at VEB and see if they’d like to have updates on it every so often there.
I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds / PAH9
You're in. I'll like to Play A Hard Nine and assume you'll bring all the Card communities together.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I'm down for the Tigers
I don’t blog much on my ‘blog,’ but I’d be down for doing the Tigers projections if some of the more prominent tigers bloggers don’t want it.
I'm looking for someone to coordinate a community effort, not just share their personal projections or plug in CHONE as is.
If you’re up for leading the charge at a blog with a more rabid community and that allows reader-generated content (Bless You Boys?), then let me know.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Rangers
Has no one spoken up? Someone might.
I’m really sick right now, and drugged up, and it’s 3:40 in the morning, so I might be totally missing something, but if no one else from the Rangers speaks up I might be game. Once I’m feeling better (hopefully tomorrow) I’ll give it a better look-see. Or another Rangers person might say something.
Preferably one with a Rangers blog.
If you want to lead the charge over at LSB, let me know.
I’m right that you spend a fair amount of time over there, right?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Cubs projections off
You have way too many plate appearances entered. Do you really believer the Hoff is going to get 440 + PA? Or Gathright? Koyie Hill to have nearly 400 PA?
Plus there is no way this club goes with 11 pitchers. So that leaves a bench of
Hill
Miles
Gathright
Johnson
Hoffpauir
Cedeno isn’t going to make the everyday roster.
I’m not criticizing the projections, I’m assuming you used Marcels with the straight wOBA. Unless you already planned on doing that already. I’d also suggest building in some AAA players making appearances, and I’d expect Miles to move around the infield to get his 350-400 PA rather than just playing one position. It matters on the defensive spectrum.
I'm starting off by simply entering the CHONE projections.
That includes PT. It’s a starting point, not an ending point. (Also I have to do things like “eat” and “sleep.”) This weekend, once I have the basics done, I’m going to get a few Cubs blogs involved in tweaking the baselines.
Let's keep the team-specific comments local to the appropriate team-specific blog(s).
If you’ve offered to coordinate the community projections for a team and I’ve added a link to your blog in this post, how about having an obvious thread where readers can leave comments?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
questions re: true talent and actual use (playing time)
I’m organzing things at RR, and initial discussions brought up things that I was already wondering about:
should we be trying to project how we think players will be used, or the true talent of the team and thus how they should be used
for example, assuming Jose Guillen is going to be around the Royals next season (and unless Bill Smith gets into the act, I’m sure sure there’s any GM stupid enough to trade for him), he’s almost certainly going to get the majority of PAs in RF (and probably brings his suckitude to DH a fair number of games as well). But CHONE (and other projections) all have Mark Teahen as the superior player…
Other issues come up for all teams, on the royals there’s also Kila vs. Shealy, Butler vs. Jacobs, Jacobs vs everyone, Farnsworth vs. Robinson Tejada, Willie Bloomquist versus replacement level, etc…
Hopefully I’m making sense: as a RR community (that I’m advising) should we assume ideaaly intelligent managing/GMing, go with our “gut” on what Treyton will do, or, as I think, sort of balance the two, by assuming that somewhere around halfway through the season, that management will figure out that Farnsworth sucks and use someone else as the setup guy. (I think Guillen is going to play no matter how much he blows)
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
Good question.
I’m thinking you’ll predict how they’ll be used, not the optimized usage.
Over at the Rockies’ blog, they’re discussing the likelihood that Garret Atkins will be traded and how to account for that in the team projection. My view is if you think there’s a 60% chance he’ll be traded half-way through the season for prospects to help after 2009, then project him at 100% playing time, 50% playing time and weight those at 40% and 60% respectively.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
how do I calculate the percentage chance
of an informed deranged Royals fan takes out DMGDM and Trey Hillman? I’d think that would add 1-2 wins right there.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 15, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
anyway, more seriously
is it fair, you think, to figure that the manager will eventually figure out that (assuming the projections hold) that one reliever, for example, is better than another?
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 15, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
I think it's likely, yes. Definitely? No.
Especially if the better reliever is unlucky in his ERA relative to the worse reliever.
You don’t have to stick with the 1.8, 1.3, 1.0, … weighting for LEV. If you think two relievers will share closer duties and setup duties (the Rays will likely deal with this, too), then average the LIs of those two roles for the two relievers and give them both 1.5ish LIs.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
yeah, I'm fine with the leverage thing
I left the IP and FIP intact, but then just worked the leverages around (keeping the overall at 1.0) with a number of guys at 1.1
I plan on doing the “community” thing, but I’ve got my initial, 50th percentile CHONE projection up there with the leverages set as such — is that biasing it too much pre-getting everyone else into it (they’ve already seen the "beta")? I see it as a starting point, but a pretty well defined one. I really don’t want to argue about baserunning numbers over Ross Gload’s projected 50 Abs…
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 15, 2009 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
Seems reasonable to throw up some initial projections and have people argue about how to modify them.
PAs will be the main point, i agree.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Oakland
I’ve started an Oakland projection:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=p3Qxlw5XtNczDX1kERhXtMw&hl=en
I’d be happy to keep it current, add base-running figures, and collaborate with members of the AN community.
by CapgrasDelusion on Jan 15, 2009 3:21 PM EST reply actions
Sounds good. You and AN are in.
Give me your email address so I can give you the password to enter the A’s info into the community spreadsheet.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Oakland looking goooooood!
Just imagine if they actually end up with having a couple of good SPs
www.punditpolitics.com - Political IQ Tests, Pundit Blog, News and Opinion.
One thing I do want to bring up here
I’ll be running the community projections at Brew Crew Ball, we’re going to weight them and Chone for the final results for the spreadsheet. For any other team using community projections, I’d make sure that the person writing the posts establishes that in general, we should be conservative on the innings pitched for starters. It seems obvious, but f the participants think there’s a 75% chance a guy throws 200 innings and a 25% chance he throws 150, most would be inclined to ‘project’ 200, but that’s not what we want to do here. If that happens, we’ll wind up with a few teams relying totally on community projections having their good starters throwing 200 instead of projecting 160 or 170. Hopefully that makes sense.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
As a starting point
I started 1 and 2 at 180, 3-5 at 150, then a couple scrubs at 50.
Then I added 10 innings to each until the target was reached… is 190 for #1 and #2 too high? I’m asking because as we get going with the “community,” (I already did a prelim) people are going to squawk about Greinke and Meche only getting 180 or 190, and I want to know what to tell them.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 15, 2009 7:51 PM EST up reply actions
I agree.
I think it might be useful to start a thread once we fill most of the teams to share and discuss strategies for making this the best project possible.
Related to projecting IP, we may want to discuss how Marcel projects innings (it’s surprisingly decent) and the 10%ish rule.
Not only is this a good project to get a full set of community projections, but holding a conversation on projection theory with fans who may never have done anything related before is a great way to introduce them to sabermetric ideas. I’ve seen good discussions like that at Purple Row, already.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
can we rec-up this thread, too, to keep it up top?
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
I threw it into the Featured Stories
So you should see it over on the right hand side of the front page
by Dan Turkenkopf on Jan 15, 2009 8:57 PM EST up reply actions
thanks
sorry if you had done that already
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 15, 2009 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
I've started work on Atlanta's WAR projections...
if anyone wants to pitch in, leave a reply and I’ll be in touch shortly.
by BraveBronco0121 on Jan 16, 2009 12:26 PM EST reply actions
Alrighty
I now have an “official” Royals Review/BtBS Community WAR Project thingy thread posted here. As usual, I probably made it about a million billion times more complicated than it has to be, but that’s what you get for letting me in the door…
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
Related question
I’m new to EditGrid — is there anyway I can set the link up to go right to the KCA tab so that RR users who are new to the whole thing can have the page open up right there instead of having to search around?
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 16, 2009 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
I can't figure this out, actually. Can anyone help?
I know you can create “portals” of certain cell ranges and imbed them in blog posts. That makes it easy for your readers to view your team’s data without having to go to the EditGrid page.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 17, 2009 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
how to you create "portals?"
is that in EditGrid? Sorry if I missed it in there. If it’s in SBNation, keep in mind that on RR I’m not a moderator, so I only post “FanPosts,” not stories, and probably don’t have access to that.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 17, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
It's an EditGrid thing.
- Highlight the cells you want to show. (Maybe just hitters for a hitter discussion post, or maybe just the pitcher names and IP for a playing time discussion.)
- Click the “Publish” menu.
- Select “Cell/Region…”
- Check the preview if you change any settings.
- Copy the code and paste it in your post.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 17, 2009 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
yeah...
unfortuneatley, the FanPost settings (at least at RR) don’t allow for that (I was able to put it into a test “Story” elsewhere where I have access). It’s cool for now — I just have some screenshots in there, no biggie.
Looks like I’ll be switching to “Fun with EditGrid,” though…
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 17, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
You can also show an active portal (meaning you can change things via a blog post)...
But I’m not sure how to show a certain sheet and there’s not a need for that. For one, you don’t want others thinking they can change numbers. But for other applications, that’s not a bad idea.
One advanced option you have is creating a copy of the sheet that users can modify, but that won’t change the original. For example, if you wanted to let them play around with different reliever LIs to see how to best optimize the bullpen.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 17, 2009 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
That would be a bit complicated and confusing for all (especially me)
If users want to play with it themselves, they can figure out how to export it and stuff themselves. I also gave links to the posts where they can download the spreadsheets, if that doesn’t work for them.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 17, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
yet another question about positions
As you may or may not know, KCA, due to the machinations of one of the Bravest, Bavasiest GMs in baseball, has somewhere between 5-19 1B/Dhs on the 40 man roster, but their lack of versatility is made up for by the presence of Willie “Spork” Bloomquist.
OK, here’s the deal — I dont’ really feel like not only entering in Bloomquist separately for 2B, SS, Corner OF, and CF, so I just did it all under 2B (although I should probably downgrade his defense or something, whatever, it’s just a few runs).
But with the 1B/Dh situation, we have Shealy, Kila, G-Load, Butler, and Mike “Keith Hernandez” Jacobs. I have Shealy, G-Load, and Kila currently at 1B, with PAss, and just left Jacobs and Butler at DH. The latter two will certainly get some time at 1B, but their defense (particularly Jacobs — I’m still having a hard time dealing with that) they they’re basically DHs, anyway. Well, I’m sure you’ve all the article where I show that Jacobs is part of an elite group of players who are actually more valuble as DHs than as crappy defensive players.
Anyway… if the group does want to separate out Jacobs and Butler 1B PAs from their DH PAs… will it screw the sheet up if I add a couple rows here and there?
This might also help for pitchers who will get some time both in the pen and the rotation.
I just don’t want to have to re-do the whole worksheet because I screwed something up and make work for Sky.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
If you insert rows in Excel, the equations automatically update.
I’m not sure how that works in EditGrid.
My guess is the closer we get to the season, the more obvious it will be who’s playing first and who’s DHing. I wouldn’t worry about 25 PAs here and there.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I’ll get something going for the Giants and make a fanshot over at McCovey Chronicles.
coanders@gmail.com
We don't really have that much pitching depth. We don't really have that much pitching depth. FOR GOD SAKE, VERUCA, DON'T GO FAKE TRADING JONATHAN SANCHEZ. We don't really have that much pitching depth
Greetings from the MLB basement...
…Doghouse, here, from Federal Baseball. I’ll get the ball rolling for the Nationals (um, over at Federal Baseball). I haven’t figured out a way to doctor the numbers to get us to .500 yet, but so far we have only a 10% chance of losing 100 games again.
"Next year we'll make it better." -- Mannyger Acta
First WAR discussion thread up on Federal Baseball...
…want to contribute to projections of the 2009 Nationals? Stop by and say hi.
"Next year we'll make it better." -- Mannyger Acta
We'll start a "best practices" thread eventually (once all teams are claimed), but for now here are things I see goign on that I like:
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
From BrewCrewBall
Good way to address being both unique and conservative with opinions.
The most important issue I want to stress in regard to making projections is that we want to keep extremes out of our projections. We’re going to be all about compromise. Say you have a hunch that Kendall will wear down and Salome will be called up and hit well in the second half. We certainly want to allow for this possibility in our projection. In a normal projection, you might just put down Salome for 300 plate appearances on that hunch. But we are looking to be as accurate as possible here. So in this situation, if you think there’s a 30% chance Salome gets 300 plate appearances, give him about 100 to account for both possibilities.
The principle is probably easier to explain with starting pitchers, who we’ll cover later. As an example, let’s say that in situation 1, every participant thinks there’s a 60% chance Manny Parra throws 190 innings and a 40% chance he throws 150 innings. If everyone projects 190 innings, we end up with an inaccurate projection. We’re also inaccurate if we all project 150. If everyone projects closer to 170 innings, we can increase the accuracy quite a bit and lower the potential for error.
Now I want to quickly disclaim the previous two paragraphs. We really want everyone’s individual opinions, ideas, analysis, and even hunches to be a big part of this process. These are just some basic guidelines attempting to get these projections to be as accurate as possible.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 17, 2009 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
I'm on the hook
on behalf of the Snakepit.
"Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play." - Joe Posnanski
I've set up my community projections form for Cubs players.
You can look at it here. For bloggers of other teams, if you’re interested in copying the idea, simply go to the More Actions link up top and select Copy Application. That should give you your own version of the form to use and abuse.
C Dub
You’re an amazing dude.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
Your 2009 Opening Day starter at second base*: Eugenio Velez
*For the Fresno Grizzlies
I honestly
might just have to steal that.
"Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play." - Joe Posnanski
wow... that might top everything
and might make for more work for me
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 18, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions
Do you have Excel?
If you do, I’ll be putting together a tutorial on how to take the input and do the projections using Pivot Tables. It’s pretty easy – I just ran through it to make sure things were working and it took me about five minutes. OpenOffice has a similar “Data Pilot” feature, if you don’t have Excel.
yeah, I do have Excel
thanks, that would be cool
If you’re taking requests, another SQL tutorial with Retrosheet this time would be great…
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 18, 2009 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
That's on my to-do list.
I have all the loaders set up for events and games – I may just eat my losses and make the rosters and such available as SQL dumps for download. I’m also working on stuff for MLB Gameday, as soon as I get myself squared away there.
Colin,
I have the retrosheet as an SQL, but can’t find someone to host it. If have someone, I can make it available to you. It is large >4GB.
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 18, 2009 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
wait, it isn't available as as download like bdb is?
I thought the rite of passage for any SQL-metrician was to re-invent the wheel make an important contribution by creating a retrosheet-based defensive and/or baserunning system.
I think I’ll just have to settle for a stat quantifying which players would have made me the most angry (the 3-0 GiDP is my “favorite.”)
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 18, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions
It's a bit more complicated to set up than the BDB.
As for defensive/baserunning systems – people will stop reinventing the wheel as soon as someone starts handing out wheels.
heh
I guess I thought that was sort of funny (and meant to be crossed through like this). No offense to anyone intended. I love that retrosheet-based stuff for historical stats.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 19, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
what I mean to say is
colin (and everyone else) thanks for helping pretentious idiots like myself
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 18, 2009 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
Love it.
Is there a way to create a form that looks more like a table, so fans could input a whole bunch of players at once? Or do the forms at that site only let you edit one entry at a time?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 19, 2009 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
It looks like the owner of the form can import data from XLS/CSV/TSV
So, this could be simplified for people who want to work in bulk. If you create a spreadsheet with the same fields across the top, you can let your users download that and email it to you to upload in order to simplify it for them.
The other cool thing with these forms is that you can embed them in your site – at least on SBN. Copy the embed code into your post through HTML view and your readers won’t even have to leave the site to fill out the form. That will probably encourage more input.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
This is awesome.
Any chance you’ll get this up today or tomorrow? I’d like to start a post/discussion for people who are leading their community effort to share ideas, and I’d love to be able to show this in action…
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 19, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
probably tomorrow morning
I’ll post a link when it’s ready.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
Oh
and I’m planning on only asking for playing time and the slash stats. I think people lost interest before because there was too much to think about.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
Sounds fair.
You could also come back to fielding, say, in a week or two.
From reading others’ posts so far, I’ve definitely noticed you can’t address everything in just one comments section. There’s too much to talk about and focus is lost easily.
BCB and DRB are doing one position per day.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
in the past
we’ve done one position a day, but by about the 4th or 5th day, once we got past the primary players, people have lost interest and we’d start seeing a big drop off in projections. I think that having the form available will allow readers to project at their own pace.
I wasn’t planning on inquiring about fielding. I don’t think the typical fan can differentiate that cleanly when it comes to fielding. Sure they can probably say Brandon Phillips is a great defender or Edwin Encarnacion is terrible at 3B, but I don’t believe that people are comfortable enough with fielding metrics to be able to say, “He’ll save our team 10 runs next year.” I was just planning on using CHONE projections for that.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
What we're doing at BCB
I’m with you on the defense evaluation problem. Towards the end of the projections, I’ll put up a thread with the CHONE defensive projections and just informally discuss it, see if anyone wants to change any of them at all. Same thing with baserunning.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
I wonder how people would deal with a few posts with a bunch of players each.
Something like infielders one day, outfielders another, starters, then relievers…?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I think a lot of it depends on the size of the community.
For the Cubs I’m able to get a very large amount of responses – 110 ballots so far, and the biggest site in my pool hasn’t started yet.
My eventual plan is to normalize all the data – fan projections tend to be uniformly high, which is something that can be corrected for. The more teams I have projections for, the better that can be accomplished. I already have been thinking about how to transform AVG/OBP/SLG projections into batting lines – obviously not ideal but I think workable.
For those whom Colin's currently scaring...
He’s going above and beyond. ; )
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
One downside to the form, I believe
is that it may hamper discussion on the site. Has anybody using the form noticed if this is the case?
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
Sky
I’ve been holding off because we’ve done community projections on Red Reporter before and they fizzle out very quickly. However, I think Colin’s input form might do the trick, so you can plan on Red Reporter for the Reds.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
Thanks, big guy!
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 19, 2009 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
Alright, it would seem I'm doing the Rangers.
I’ll be putting up a FanPost there about it in a bit and if there are any Rangers fans here, any and all help is greatly appreciated.
Also, any other input is awesome.
Stats geek..
…I AM NOT, however, I was intrigued by what all the hubbub was about. I participate in the Nats blog quite often and I saw the call out for fans to give their 2 cents. I thought to myself; “Why not try to sit down and learn what the hell all of these stat geeks are trying to do.”
Long story short, this is what I did, what I found out and how pleasantly surprised I was to find out that my own projection was damn close to the MARCEL projections.
1. Took my projected starting lineup of eight Nationals batters.
2. Used only AVG/OBP/SLG career stats
3. Compared those to the CHONE / MARCEL figures
4. Then compared CHONE vs. MARCEL
I concluded the following:
A. The CHONE / MARCEL (for the most part) projected improved stats for my ‘09 Nats lineup.
B. CHONE projected higher (more improved numbers) on a 5:3 ratio (out of the 8 batters) compared to MARCEL.
C. Taking the average age for my projected ’09 Nats lineup, I felt that they are in a period of an MLB player’s career in which they WILL perform better.
D. I projected a team 15 game improvement (max) for ’09 based on batting alone. Nats won 59 games last year, I projected 74 wins for ’09.
Doghouse plugged the numbers into the spreadsheet and…MARCEL projected 74.7 wins. A 14.7 win improvement from last year.
Me: 15 game improvement.
MARCEL: 14.7 game improvement.
Not bad heh?
" PLEASE! CHANGE THE PATCH! "
by LOUtheMETandNATSfan on Jan 18, 2009 8:11 PM EST reply actions
FishStripes will handle the Marlins...
for better or worse.
The post will be a FanPost and probably show up on Wednesday.
OMG! It just occurred to me, I still owe you an article. Man, I suck.
Don't worry about that article, Craig. My big plan fizzed out.
And thanks for helping out with the community projections over at FishStripes.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jan 19, 2009 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Did we ever figure out a best practice for entering pinch hitters?
I’d hate to give pinch hit at bats extra credit for coming from a catcher.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
I suppose they could just be entered into the DH spots in the NL
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
I don't know that a player pinch-hits enough to make a substantial difference.
You also have to factor in the fact that it’s harder to pinch-hit than it is to hit.
my concern is in the aggregate
if we have to have 300 PA for pinch hitters, then it could make a difference if a team’s pinch hitters are predominately playing up the middle instead of on the corners. On the Reds, for instance, their bench will likely be comprised of several utility players, so it could make a difference if I assign all of their playing time to SS and 2B.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
Pinch hitting penalty
Any primary pinch hitters are going to play in the field at some point. At BCB, we’re going through the positions, so we should hit every position player and have a slash line for them. Then we’ll ask for projections on percentage of total pinch hitting appearances, and just apply the pinch-hitting penalty to all the projections of the players the community thinks will get— I’ll have to look it up in The Book, it’s like 15% I think. Then just find an average amount of pinch hitting appearances for teams in a year and apply the percentages to that in the DH section. I think that should work. Agreed though, it’s not going to make much of a difference.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
It probably won't change anything by much,
but I have wondered here before if adding the PH to the DH section (and leaving in the positional adjustment) is right. Should it be zero since they don’t have a “position” when they pinch hit? That’s the rub I have.
I'm still not certain.
I think the best thing to do is list them in the DH slot, change “DH” to “PH” and add another position-adjustment look-up. I’m not sure what that adjustment is, and how using it would change the team wins baseline. PHs can obviously be anybody, like DHs, but tend to be pretty crappy. I’m not sure how that should affect the rep level for PHs. I’d love input from people more in touch with these things than I am.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Where does pitchers hitting fit in all of this?
The biggest thing I see lacking is their no spot for pitchers hitting in the NL? If we added Pitchers to the NL hitting on the spreadsheet it could easily take away 2 wins.
Stat Whore
Since it is WAR and not straight wins, it shouldn't matter
I think you can assume that all teams have around replacement level for pitcher hitting. That is not to say that pitchers hit at a replacement level, rather pitchers hit at the level that pitchers hit and every NL team has to hit with their pitchers for some portion of their at bats. So, unless you can demonstrate that a team’s pitchers hit dramatically better or worse than other pitchers, their WAR should not be affected.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
Yes, let's just assume all pitchers are the same. They only bat, as a group, as much as a team's pinch-hitters, anyways.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
And we have no real reason to think that replacement-level pitchers...
…as a group are worse hitters than our league-average pitchers. Because of the way they’re selelcted, the two groups should be very close to identical.
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