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Messing Around With Dynamic Run Estimators

So since they've been talking about the dynamic run estimator with pitching over on fangraphs (most notably in this article ).  I decided that I'd take a look at trying something like that with batting.  Bill James developed Offensive Winning Percentage, which was developed much in the same vein as the Win% used for pitchers. 

Star-divide

From The Book wiki:

Offensive Winning Percentage (OWP) is a Bill James statistic that measures the rate of offensive performance. A player's OWP is the winning percentage that the Pythagorean Theorem would project for a team that scored runs at the rate the player created them, but allowed a league average number of runs.

The formula for OWP is:

OWP = (RC/Out)^x/((RC/Out)^x + Lg(RC/Out)^x)

where RC is Runs Created and x is the Pythagorean exponent used (usually 2).

Note: I used Pythagenpat to find the exponent x

Later in that article it's noted the James set replacement level at .350.  So now we have something to work with.  Of course, I did this for the Brewers since I have all the data necessary readily available.

PLAYER POS mPA wOBA OBP wRC Outs wRC/Out LGwRC/Out OWP PA/27 OffWAR FRAA/650 posadj/650 DefWAR TotalWAR
Rivera ,Mike C 150 0.329 0.332 17.55 100.2 0.18 0.18 0.488 40.42 0.51 0 11.61 0.27 0.78
Kendall, Jason C 550 0.295 0.323 45.65 372.35 0.12 0.17 0.321 39.88 -0.4 7 11.61 1.57 1.17
Nelson ,Brad 1B 50 0.338 0.345 6.3 32.75 0.19 0.18 0.534 41.22 0.22 -5 -11.61 -0.13 0.1
Fielder, Prince 1B 650 0.382 0.377 110.5 404.95 0.27 0.19 0.686 43.34 5.04 -8 -11.61 -1.96 3.08
Weeks, Rickie 2B 600 0.343 0.357 78.6 385.8 0.2 0.18 0.562 41.99 3.03 -9 2.32 -0.62 2.41
Hall, Bill 3B 500 0.325 0.318 56.5 341 0.17 0.18 0.460 39.59 1.39 -1 2.32 0.1 1.49
Lamb, Mike 3B 200 0.319 0.330 21.4 134 0.16 0.18 0.444 40.3 0.47 -12 2.32 -0.3 0.17
Hardy, J.J. SS 625 0.344 0.336 82.5 415 0.2 0.18 0.547 40.66 3.03 1 6.96 0.77 3.79
Braun, Ryan LF 625 0.384 0.352 107.5 405 0.27 0.19 0.670 41.67 4.8 2 -6.96 -0.48 4.32
Cameron, Mike CF 575 0.333 0.328 69.58 386.4 0.18 0.18 0.500 40.18 2.15 3 2.32 0.47 2.62
Hart, Corey RF 600 0.345 0.329 79.8 402.6 0.2 0.18 0.545 40.24 2.91 2 -6.96 -0.46 2.45
Gwynn, Tony OF 150 0.306 0.325 14.1 101.25 0.14 0.17 0.379 40 0.11 -6 -2.32 -0.19 -0.08
Duffy, Chris OF 150 0.306 0.320 14.1 102 0.14 0.17 0.375 39.71 0.09 9 -2.32 0.15 0.25
Replacement C 7 0.304 0.304 0.64 4.87 0.13 0.17 0.350 38.77 0 0 0 0 0
Replacement 1B 8 0.304 0.304 0.73 5.57 0.13 0.17 0.350 38.77 0 0 0 0 0
Replacement 2B 100 0.304 0.304 9.16 69.64 0.13 0.17 0.350 38.77 0 0 0 0 0
Replacement 3B 7 0.304 0.304 0.64 4.87 0.13 0.17 0.350 38.77 0 0 0 0 0
Replacement SS 75 0.304 0.304 6.87 52.23 0.13 0.17 0.350 38.77 0 0 0 0 0
Replacement LF 7 0.304 0.304 0.64 4.87 0.13 0.17 0.350 38.77 0 0 0 0 0
Replacement CF 7 0.304 0.304 0.64 4.87 0.13 0.17 0.350 38.77 0 0 0 0 0
Replacement RF 8 0.304 0.304 0.73 5.57 0.13 0.17 0.350 38.77 0 0 0 0 0
Totals - 5849 0.336 0.326 724.14 3942.23 0.18 0.18 0.509 40.06 23.22

-0.8 22.55



















lgR/G
9.43












pythexp
2.28









Alright, so now let's compare these values with what we get with a, uh, static run estimator.

PLAYER sOffWar dOffWAR
Rivera ,Mike 0.67 0.51
Kendall, Jason -0.05 -0.4
Nelson ,Brad 0.74 0.22
Fielder, Prince 4.59 5.04
Weeks, Rickie 2.16 3.03
Hall, Bill 1.19 1.39
Lamb, Mike 0.45 0.47
Hardy, J.J. 2.41 3.03
Braun, Ryan 4.44 4.8
Cameron, Mike 1.66 2.15
Hart, Corey 2.49 2.91
Gwynn, Tony 0.2 0.11
Duffy, Chris 0.19 0.09



R^2=.9729

 

So we appear to get a pretty decent correlation here, with some players getting higher due to the dynamic part of the estimator and others getting lower. What does everybody else think of this method? Is it worth thinking about batting wins about replacement in dynamic terms? And this also brings about the question of whether or not we should use dynamic runs for fielding as well. Anyway, I'm hoping we can get a decent discussion about this, so that's my two cents.

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Theoretical Team BaseRuns

I’d say more, but I have an appointment at Chuck E. Cheese’s.

by cwyers on Jan 11, 2009 5:16 PM EST reply actions  

ok, now my head hurts

maybe I’ll try reading that again tomorrow, but I didn’t get a whole lot out of that.

---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on Jan 11, 2009 8:14 PM EST up reply actions  

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