Early Projected Standings using THT Projections

Replacement Level Yankees Weblog has some very early projected standings up. From the site:

Here are the results of 100 trials of the 2009 season using rosters as of yesterday and projections from the Hardball Times.

Since there are so many FA still out there it's quite early to do this (the author acknowledge this). Thus there's a high bias for the Yankees since they signed their FA early. Still 100+ wins on average is quite impressive, with the fewest runs allowed in the AL as well.

Other things of note:
The AL West has no team .500 or over in it, projecting -20 wins for the Angels from last years 100. Top and bottom are only separated by < 5 games.

The White Sox have gone from top to bottom in one season, a full 8 games below the Royals. I'm sure Ozzie Guillen would have a couple choice words for that computer.

Like their city brethren the Mets project the best record in the NL. The Cubs unsurprisingly are second and lead the NL Central. But the NL West leader is a bit of a surprise, the Rockies on top even after losing Matt Holliday. I guess a healthy Tulowitzki and Helton must give them a large boost in the simulator.

Even Pirates fans can get into this as they tied for the Wild Card in one simulation. Orioles and Nats fans, sorry.

5 months ago iamawesomer Comment 19 comments 0 recs |

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Comments

There's also a Marcels version.

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/extremely_early_2009_projections_marcel_edition

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 4:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Most notable difference seems to be an ALW team over .500 (OAK with 82)

But I think that could be Marcels young player projections giving the A’s an optimistic outlook.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's probably heavily regressing almost all the A's players towards the mean

Which conveniently would put them right near the mean of 81-2 wins.

Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's

by iamawesomer on Jan 10, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How average.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Time for the M's to make a slapsh

by JI on Jan 10, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They've already lost Willie this year

I don’t see how any team could come back from that.

Can't get enough of the Oakland A's? Visit Oaktown Awesomer's

by iamawesomer on Jan 10, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Positively?

by JI on Jan 10, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Adam Dunn!

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The biggest difference is the Brewers, by about 9 wins.

The question is whether or not it’s an issue of the THT projections, or defense (SG says he ran the Marcels sim with defense included, but not the THT sim.)

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by cwyers on Jan 10, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm surprised Seattle did that well.

The early tinkering I did indicated that Marcels hate hate hated the Mariner’s lineup.

by JI on Jan 10, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Was that pre-Putz trade?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

I had their starting 9 being worth about 10 wins, but I see how you could squeeze a few more out if you made Chavez and Gutierrez more awesome at defense, leveraged Branyan and Shelton as best as possible, and assume Ichiro would beat his projection (which he usually does).

by JI on Jan 10, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget Eric Hull and Tyler Walker adding a quarter of a win.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So...

Who here still thinks the Mets need to improve their offense?

by squid92 on Jan 10, 2009 5:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Methodology

I am not a reader of the RLY blog, does anyone know the methodology they use to predict each team’s record, RS, RA etc…? Thanks!
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jan 11, 2009 1:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

IIRC from last season, he sims the season using Diamond Mind.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Jan 11, 2009 1:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

DM

I wonder how accurate DIamond Mind is at predicting games. I’d like to see their track record compared to empirical data to see how accurate their sim is. But like they said at their site, many teams don’t have a full roster yet, or are still chasing free agents. I would expect to see the Dodgers with around 78-79 wins (which is what RLY blog has them at) without Manny Ramirez and another starting pitcher. But with the two they would be closer to 84 wins. Will be interesting to see how their results shape up when all the major free agents have signed.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Jan 11, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In regards to the Rockies...

Keep in mind that the THT projection wasn’t made with a defensive adjustment, and the team had a really bad defensive unit last season, led by Gold Glove DH Brad Hawpe, and injuries limited the effectiveness of two of the team’s best defensive players in Tulo and Helton. There should be some rebound to the middle, but I’d suspect that overall defense might hamper our run prevention again this season. Otherwise, it’s a solid and deep pitching staff even though it doesn’t have an ace. It doesn’t have true replacement level pitchers set to earn replacement innings as Smith/Hirsh/Morales/Rusch/Reynolds are all better than typical sixth starters. On paper it looks better than 2007’s best in Rockies history group, so it’s not surprising to me that we’d project around that level of runs before the defense was taken into account.

On the other side, eliminating a hole on offense like Taveras from the leadoff slot and replacing him with a high OBP player in Spilborghs (again, since the THT projection doesn’t include defense, this upgrade will look even larger than it really is in these sims) does as much, or more, good than replacing Holliday with Seth Smith or Ian Stewart does harm in left field. It’s another situation of the value of even a very good corner outfielder getting overstated over the F.A.T. at the position.

by Rox Girl on Jan 11, 2009 9:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs