As the graph says, probabilities of the Brewers winning X amount of games. The first 99.99% mark is 52 games, then it goes to 60 and then increments by 5. This is using a binomial distribution based on my WAR projections, which give a win% of .538
Larger version here: http://img.imgcake.com/brewerprobabilities.jpg
about 3 years ago
Jack Moore
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This is the type of stuff I love seeing.
Is there any way you could post a walkthrough on the process, so we can get some more of these over the next few weeks?
Well, once you figure out your win%
then you go into excel or open office or whatever you like and then you use the BINOMDIST function. The way I did it was I put wins in one column, and then in the other column I did *100*BINOMDIST(wins/2, 81, win%, 1)*. The program got mad at me when tried it with 162, so I just halved everything.
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stupid sbnation
anyway, the way the binomial distribution function works is like this
BINOMDIST[a, b, c, d] where a is the number of successes you want (won games), b is the number of trials (total games) , c is the probability of success (win%), and then for d you use 1 because you want to get the probability of at least the amount of games, whereas if you use 0 you’ll just get the probability of winning EXACTLY that amount of games, which is no help.
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by Jack Moore on Jan 10, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Awesome, thanks.
I’ve yet to discover all the wonders of Excel.
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 10, 2009 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks for the above
But how to you turn it into that sweet graph?
The Crawfishboxes
A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
by Stephen Higdon on Jan 11, 2009 5:57 AM EST up reply actions
even better
this is way too easy to read, could you make it smaller?
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http://img.imgcake.com/brewerprobabilities.jpg
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
heh sorry.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 10, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Fantastic. Wish I'd thought of doing this.
I’ll add a chart using this method to the WAR spreadsheet next time I publish an update.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
hmmm
I wonder if that will import into google spreadsheets
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 11, 2009 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
I meant a table, not a pretty graph. Something like:
Wins Prob
76 99%
81 85%
86 62%
91 34%
96 12%
101 1%
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
finally figured the chuart out with help
from jhmore and Slyde. I should probably resign my blogging credentials…
now I just have to format it properly
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 11, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
OK...
I think I got the binom funciton working… but how do I get it to graph again?
for the Royals with 79 wins, I’m using this command
=BINOMDIST
is that the right command, anyway?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 11, 2009 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
If you want to find the probability the the Royals will win x amount of games
the cell is " =100*BINOMDIST(x/2, 81, 79/162, 1) "
and you have to do it separately for each amount of games you want to look at
I use x/2 and 81 instead of x and 162 because it causes an overflow of the system when I use 162, but I don’t believe it makes a difference.
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and so you just graph wins on the x and then the probabilities you get on the y
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ah... OK... I wasn't doing 100*
but I’m getting weird percentages… ahh… I see the problem, I knew what I was doing, but mixed up the trials and probability fields… yikes…
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 11, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
sorry i'm such a moron
but I have from 1 to 162 on the right hand column, but the percentage just keeps goin up and up until they have a 100% chance of winning 177 games or more… I’m pretty sure that can’t be right
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 11, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions
make sure the only thing in the BINOMDIST function that ever changes is the x
and it’s key that there’s a 1 in the 4th spot
although you might want to check if you’re using excel because it might be different; I used openoffice for this
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excel 2003
yeah, nothing’s changing but the “x”
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 11, 2009 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
ah
for “0” and “1”, Excel has “FALSE” and “TRUE”
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 11, 2009 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
I think you have to use this
=100*(1-BINOMDIST(x/2, 81, 79/162, 1))
The results seem to be reversed. When you subtract it from one, the results look more realistic and the curve slope is similar.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
that's possible for excel
in openoffice, the “1” makes it a sum of all the probabilities up to x/2
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the excel help on the last value
“Cumulative is a logical value that determines the form of the function. If cumulative is TRUE, then BINOMDIST returns the cumulative distribution function, which is the probability that there are at most number_s successes; if FALSE, it returns the probability mass function, which is the probability that there are number_s successes.”
I think you might be right, guys. I’m truly sorry I’m so stupid. I thikn Slyde’s 1- BINOM) might be the answer in Excel… give me a sec
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 11, 2009 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
yes, I'm dumb
it should be 1-BINOM
I was just trying to go by memory because I couldn’t find my file but I found it and it’s 1-BINOM
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so the royals really are a literal lock to win at least 40?
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 11, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, I'm not sure why it is
I don’t know this function well, but in excel, TRUE=1, so the results should be the same. The function appears to be a match otherwise.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
but then
the first 99.99% mark is at 24 games. Does that sound right?
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
depends on what your win% is
maybe if it’s in the low .400s, possibly
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I used 79 wins
I just copied and pasted your formula.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
or it's just rounding
If I drop it to 2 decimal places, it’s at 43 wins, which seems much more reasonable.
Thanks for posting this!
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
you the man
now I just have to remember when I was in university many moons ago and could actually generate a graph easily…
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 11, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions
select the data set
and hit the chart button. :)
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
yeah...
but for some reason I can never quickly figure out which chart type is the best
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 11, 2009 7:03 PM EST up reply actions
thanks to jhmoore!
I just posted a graph for the Reds at Red Reporter based on a 79 win projection for the Reds, which I still don’t quite believe to be true.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
Are you using Excel?
If so, how did you add the 75% and 25% red lines?
by R.J. Anderson on Jan 11, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions
yep
I added two data series, one where the 162 values were all 0.75 and one where they were all 0.25. NOTE: I did not multiply by 100, rather I converted all of the data values to percentages so they would display the same, but with ‘%’. If you are multiplying by 100, your extra series need to be whole numbers instead of decimals.
We’’re in process of trying to a guy with a trade record of working with pitches
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