The Aaron Miles Deal is Puzzling

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 1, 2009 1:24 PM EST Comment 21 comments

Question: How do you replace a ~3 WAR second baseman/utility man making 5 million a season?

Answer: With a replacement level infielder for ~5 million over two years.

I'm not a fan of the Miles signing, as you can tell. The Cubs may or may not attempt and deal for Jake Peavy, if they do, and they include Mike Fontenot or Ronny Cedeno, that's one thing. However, signing Aaron Miles for ~5 million is an awful Plan B. How awful? Miles WAR since 2003:

Year	PA	WAR
2003	12	0.1
2004	566	-0.3
2005	347	-0.8
2006	471	0
2007	449	0.1
2008	408	1.9

Throw 2003 out for small sample size and you have, on average, a ~0.2 WAR player, and that benefits heavily from a fluke 2008. In seasons in which he isn't riding unsustainable BABIP and LD rates, Miles is a replacement level middle infielder without a great (or even good) glove and with a poor bat. The Cubs could've thrown a dart at their (or any) Triple-A roster and found a player with similar traits for less than a million dollars. Heck, what about Andres Blanco?

Heaven forbid if the Cubs give Miles 400+ plate appearances.

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Hendry's not done

acquiring replacement level players – Paul Bako is next.

Fontenot should get the lion’s share of time at 2nd. Otherwise, you’re right, bad news.

by Harry Pavlidis on Jan 1, 2009 2:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, it’s kind of a weird acquisition. Miles is basically THE definition of a replacement level player and, defensively, he’s limited to second base. If I were the Cubs, I would have dredged up a AAA utility player who can actually play more than one position.

Bay City Ball | Beyond the Box Score

by xanthan on Jan 1, 2009 5:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

can play or will play?

Other than catcher and first, he’s played ‘em all. I think RJ’s note about Andres Blanco is spot on.

by Harry Pavlidis on Jan 1, 2009 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Miles can hopefully hit replacement level

Blanco can’t do that in the minors. That’s the difference.

by Daniel Berlyn on Jan 1, 2009 7:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Miles can't hit or field.

Blanco at least seems like an average fielder.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 1, 2009 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

but he also seems latin.

and we all know that latin players can’t be scrappers. and if there’s something lincoln park trixies love it’s scrappy white guys who play baseball. miles is probably worth, like, at least 15000 pink cubs jerseys over replacement latino (PCJORL). at that’s not even getting into advanced trixie metrics.

by larry on Jan 1, 2009 9:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gary Sheffield would like a word.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 1, 2009 11:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not sure what gary sheffield has to do with the above.

do sorority girls like him a lot or something?

by larry on Jan 2, 2009 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i got it.

thank you wikipedia.

by larry on Jan 2, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Blanco is a better fielder

but Miles isn’t a total butcher, and it’s nice to have someone who can hit when you need him. Which, in the NL, is often. He puts the ball in play, which is nice to know he can get a single when you need him to. I’ll give you that the two year commitment is odd, but it isn’t a lot of money anyway. And saying that Miles can’t hit is extreme. Blanco actually can’t hit in the majors.

by Daniel Berlyn on Jan 1, 2009 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Miles wRAA since 2004:

-11.5
-10.4
-16.2
-11.5
0.8

Call him a ~ -4 fielder, if Blanco is league average, or even a bit above, you’re talking about a guy who can be -15 to -20 offensively and still equal to Miles in value.

“Isn’t a lot of money anyway” Well neither is 5 mil to DeRosa, but they moved him to free up finances, no?

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 1, 2009 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

again, defense wasn't considered much

other than Miles isn’t terrible. I don’t want to advocate it, because it wasn’t a great move financially, but I’m offering perspective for the Cubs. Miles’ purpose is just to get hits when needed, which he does fairly well. Nothing special here, but not the atrocity people like to make it to be.

by Daniel Berlyn on Jan 2, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i was personally offended by this signing.

by larry on Jan 2, 2009 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was personnally relieved by this signing

I am just glad that Miles will be trying to be the pivot on double plays for the Cubs instead of the Cards this year. I think those numbers above are pretty much right on when it comes to Miles’ D. Just be hopeful he doesn’t spend too much time at SS either, his arm just isn’t up for it.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Jan 3, 2009 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nonsense.

He was the Cardinals best pitcher last year, and the Cubs are pulling off a heist .

by Daniel Berlyn on Jan 1, 2009 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

bahahaha!

by tomsteele on Jan 2, 2009 1:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i think the cubs are giving in to Lou's idea of a perfect team

i think its clear this is a move to move fontenot into the starting lineup, because hes a lefty. lou wants “balance” in the lineup. miles is a switch hitter (though not a good hitter period). milton bradley is a switch hitter.

that being said, i dont mind the derosa trade (without doing any analysis of the minor leaguers). derosa did have a career year. i imagine he should regress from last year. he is also on the wrong side of 30. fontenot showed a lot last year, albeit almost all against rightys.

but yea, i wish we just gave the backup infield spot to ronny cedeno. with the cubs trying to trim payroll for whoever (bradley? peavy?), this just doesnt seem like a good idea.

p.s. the gathright move has lou’s hands all over it. he is his late inning basestealer/defensive replacement.

by someguy132 on Jan 1, 2009 10:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gathright is a really good defender though, and assuming Bradley and Soriano are in your outfield, I can understand where he fits in.

Plus he’s cheap.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 1, 2009 11:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You obviously haven't read Tony's comments, RJ

“We took a big hit with Miles,” La Russa said. “I never had a teammate any better than Aaron Miles, in all of the years I’ve managed. This guy deserves every bit of credit, recognition, respect for his three years with us that you could give him. This guy was really good for us. It was paining for him to leave us, and he left, and that’s a tough loss.”

Plus, he’s spunky!

by chuckb on Jan 3, 2009 12:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i'd imagine that we'd all agree that being a "great teammate" or some such thing is worth something.

hard to place a value on it but let’s call it $500K. over his three seasons with the cardinals, he was worth his cost (especially with what he did last season). even if one think it’s worth much more, miles is going to be hard-pressed to be worth his contract even when the intangibles are generously included.

and it can’t be that paining for the cards if they non-tendered him two years in a row.

by larry on Jan 3, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs