Justin's Total Value Numbers

Justin's updated his total value numbers through the games of September 5th. If you're not familiar with these numbers, you should be. They're the best, Jerry, the best -- better than VORP and way better than WARP.

He starts with custom linear weights on offense, adjusts for ballpark and league, and converts to runs above replacement level. He then adds a position adjustment based on position difficulty, not offensive-averages by position. Finally, he addresses fielding at each position with an average of STATS and BIS zone ratings converted to runs. (You can read about the full methodology in these posts.) MLB leaders::

TotRun Player
87 Pujols
77 Sizemore
76 Berkman
67 Jones
67 Utley
65 Ramirez
63 Rodriguez
57 Beltran
57 Holliday
54 Wright
54 Pedroia
52 Giles
52 Granderson
50 Roberts
50 Mauer

Albert Pujols and Grady Sizemore have been significantly better than anyone in their respective leagues. Of players on teams in playoff races, Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia are leading the way. And I have a feeling I'll be writing about Brian Giles' and Joe Mauer's underrated seasons soon.

(And no, Justin's offensive ratings don't include anything context dependent like performance in the clutch. So depending on your definition of MVP, it might not be the best offensive stat to use for that discussion. But the defensive numbers are still useful.)

9 months ago Sky Kalkman Comment 11 comments 0 recs |

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Huh, is it wrong that Pujols/Sizemore would be my MVP votes?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 7, 2008 12:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yes, you're an idiot

you should vote for Carlos Quentin because he’s a bad corner outfielder and has had his homerun total inflated by his home park.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

on a serious note...

it’s interesting how many hitters on that list play in the NL. Justin’s corrected for league-quality already. some of it’s the fact that the NL has two extra teams, I suppose.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How underrated is Brian Giles? Wowza.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 7, 2008 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Very

Very underrated. He has been that way for his entire career.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com and http://www.RedsPitchFX.com

by dougdirt on Sep 7, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

petco

Petco doesn’t help, nor does getting a lot of value from your fielding. Chase Utley seems rather unappreciated too, though maybe not to the same degree.

As for AL vs. NL, the adjustment amounts to a half-win a year (5 runs/season). That’s what everyone else does, but looking at the hitter list I can’t help but wonder if it’s enough. The pitchers list don’t mirror the hitters, though, so I dunno. Might just be a great cadre of elite hitters in the NL, and then rest of the league stinks. :)
-j

On Baseball and the Reds

by JinAZ on Sep 7, 2008 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

best position players by league (including league adjustment)

top 10 — 70%
top 25 — 52%
top 50 — 50%
top 100 — 54%
top 200 — 53%

With 16 out of 30 teams in the NL, an even distribution would be 53.3% of the best players in the NL. You pretty much have that, with a disproportionate number of the studs in the NL.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 7, 2008 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Berkman is in a playoff race/contention.

A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by DyingQuail on Sep 9, 2008 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs