Will Carroll has an Unfiltered blog post up discussing how the Rays-Twins trade this past off-season was a win-win deal, benefitting both teams.

"Both teams might end up in the playoffs, but the Rays appear to have gotten a slightly better deal. Garza became an ace-level starter with a 35.3 VORP while Bartlett was named team MVP with a 13.3 VORP. That doesn’t mean the Twins got shafted. Young (14.2 VORP) played a pivotal role, while Harris surprised many with his play at short (9.6 VORP.) Harris also benefits if you include defense, putting up a 4.3 WARP1 that outshines Bartlett’s 3.4, which might stun those that rave about Bartlett’s defense."

It's a decent analysis -- but those numbers are a load of crap, both wrong and misleading. Nobody was surprised by Harris' bat -- it's his glove that's awful, no matter what BPro's poor fielding metric says. And to ignore Young's awful glove while mentioning his offense is poor form.

Whereas FRAA (which isn't based on play-by-play data) says Harris is +1 at short whlie Bartlett is -6 runs, combined BIS and STATS zone ratings have Bartlett firmly ahead +1 to -11. The latter metric follows better methodology, matches most people's scouting reports, and is in line with past performances. That's a 19 runs difference between BPro's numbers and much more correct numbers (albeit still with large error bars).

Here's the better analysis of the trade, in terms of overall 2008 production through September 5th:

Garza: 35 runs
Bartlett: 10 runs
Young: 0 runs
Harris: -3 runs

Um, so the Rays got a stud pitcher and competent shortstop in exchange for two replacement-level players. How, then, was this trade anything more than a win-loss deal for the Rays and Twins respectively? How did the Twins NOT get shafted?