The Eight Most Underrated Superstars
I have many pet peeves when it comes to mainstream baseball analysis, but one of the biggest is when people can't understand that the good-bad scale is different from the overrated-underrated scale. The first measures actual talent and the second measures the public's perception of that talent. For example (and I realize this example is not breaking new ground) Derek Jeter is a good baseball player, deserving of many of his All-Star selections. But he's also an overrated baseball player, because he's not actually the faultless god many make him out to be -- he's a poor defensive shortstop and his power is mediocre rather than Zeus-like.
I'm going to take the glass-half-full approach today and highlight eight position players who are not only quite good, but who are also quite underrated. Everyone knows the following names, but they should be mentioned more often on highlight shows and appear on more end-of-season ballots. Most of them are underpaid.
What makes a position player underrated? Here's a good set of criteria:
- Plays in the AL -- NL pitching is weaker, inflating raw stats compared to AL hitters.
- Plays in a pitchers' park -- currently San Diego, Oakland, Seattle, and Florida play in the more difficult parks for hitters.
- Has a low average and a high walk rate -- OBP is everything. AVG... not so much. High strikeouts players are still underrated, too.
- Isn't an RBI guy -- not only do RBIs get way too much press, but "run producers" tend to be out-machines.
- Plays a difficult defensive position -- catcher, shortstop, and center field qualify as difficult, and the corner outfield spots, first base, and designated hitter definitely do not.
- Fields his position well -- making an extra play per week is worth as much as hitting an extra dying quail per week (and we're all familiar with what Bull Durham says about that.)
Counting down to the most underrated superstar in the majors (based on my personal judgment of the difference between actual value and perceived value), here are eight players we all know, but don't celebrate enough:
Albert Pujols -- Yes, most people realize he's the best player in the National League even if they won't give him the MVP award. But what people miss is that he's so far ahead of everyone else. If you combine Chipper Jones' ridiculously hot first 71 games (.394/.485/.630) with Carlos Delgado's MVP-leading most recent 73 games (.320/.403/.629), the resulting Voltron-performance doesn't quite match Pujols' season line of .348/.453/.631 over 144 games (hat tip, Tom Tango). And then consider that Pujols is the best defensive first baseman in the game. If not for Barry Bonds, Prince Albert would probably be the best player of the last quarter century.
Curtis Granderson -- ARod was everyone's clear AL MVP in 2007, but there's a decent argument that Granderson was nearly as productive. True, he's taken a step back this year from being an all-world defender in center field and his power has dropped a bit, but that merely puts him among the top twenty players in the game instead of the top five (and on a positive note, his plate discipline has improved.) Going into 2009, I don't think there are ten position players I'd rather have on my favorite team than Curtis Granderson.
Adrian Beltre -- Anyone who still thinks the Mariners' 5 year, $64MM deal for Beltre was a mistake deserves a complimentary colonoscopy. He's an above-average hitter and an exceptional third baseman (+13 runs per season over the past two). At three wins on offense and one and a half on defense, Beltre's All-Star caliber performances are worth $18MM on today's free agent market . His power numbers would be a lot more impressive outside of Safeco, too.
Joe Mauer -- Justin Morneau gets all the love sent in the direction of the Twins' offense -- which appropriately isn't all that much -- but Mauer is every bit as productive with the bat and is one of the top ten defensive assets in the game. Morneau certainly has more power (and RBIs), but only holds a career .050 point advantage in SLG, which Mauer easily counters with a career .050 point advantage in OBP. Overall, Mauer's career OPS+ is better, 127 to 122. Morneau has a slight advantage this year, 140 to 135, but Mauer had the edge in the previous two seasons, including Morneau's 2006 MVP campaign.
Chase Utley -- With his hot start to the 2008 season, I thought Utley might finally get the recognition he deserves. But with a depressed second half the Ryan Howard-for-MVP talk has again heated up, leaving Utley as the most productive Phillie for three straight seasons and the least appreciated Phillie over that span as well. Thanks to a Biggio-like ability to get hit by pitches, his career OBP is .375 and it's not easy to find a second baseman who can slug .525. Now add an Ozzie-like glove to that offensive talent and you've got Utley. Ok, that Ozzie comment might be a slight exaggeration, but when a single player can claim to be both the best hitter and the best fielder at his position, he's something special.
Grady Sizemore -- Just like Albert Pujols has been the clear-cut best National League player, Sizemore takes on that role in the national league. His raw rate stats can stack up to everyone outside the likes of ARod, Milton Bradley, Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Quentin, Aubrey Huff, and Nick Markakis, and his high plate appearance total closes the gap. But none of those guys can come close to Sizemore's defensive value, vaulting him ahead by over a full win. All of his first four full seasons have been remarkably similar in value, too.
Brian Giles -- The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist. Giles' trick of convincing baseball fans he's somehow not a superstar is pretty interesting as well. A raw line of .304/.396/.449 is pretty sweet (you did notice the near-.400 OBP, right?), but it's awesome coming in PETCO, which reduces run scoring by one run per game per team compared to a neutral park. Translating Giles' performance into 4.6 RPG environment makes it look more like .322/.415/.473, which is of similar value to a .322/.365/.553 line (trading OBP for power.) Oh, and Giles' glove has averaged +10 runs in right field over the last two years, making him as valuable defensively as the average center fielder.
Carlos Beltran -- Carlos Delgado, David Wright, and Jose Reyes receive more credit for the Mets' success this year, but there's a good argument that Beltran has been the National League's MVP. I can only think of one thing Beltran doesn't do significantly better than the average player, and that's hit for average. He walks, hits for power, is a stud baserunner, plays center field, and is a Gold Glover out there. Defense is probably the most underrated skill in baseball right now, and guys who do everything well instead of doing one thing extremely well tend to fly under the radar. If you know a Mets fan, tell them to stop expecting Beltran to live up to his $18MM-per-season contract and realize he's performing like a $25MM stud.
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36 comments
Comments
given that I just noticed Nick Markakis' OBP is in the .400 range as opposed to .360 last year...
he might have deserved mention on a list like this.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 24, 2008 5:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Or a player that not a lot of people have heard of that performs on this level.
Remember when we were kids and we mixed sodas together and called them "suicides"? It was OK though, because Dr. Pepper was always there.
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Sep 24, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
And in the running for most outfield assists.
Curt never met a buttered roll he didn't like.
by CoachOfEarl on Sep 25, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty amazing
That Albert F-in Pujols is still underrated.
by Peter Bendix on Sep 24, 2008 5:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Chase Utley
He isn’t even acknowledged as the best player on his own team by most. His defense is quite a bit better than anyone else at his position and his bat has been incredible for a weak hitting position.
Whenever I think about this question two players jump to the head of the conversation and you hit them both….. Granderson and Utley.
by dougdirt on Sep 24, 2008 8:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It’s a shame Chutley doesn’t get credit for his amazing defense because he makes too many errors or something stupid like that. Granderson deserved a Gold Glove last year too.
by VictorW on Sep 25, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Granderson is great...
But he still has tremendous issues with lefties. This could theoretically leave him susceptible to LOOGYs. It looks like he’s been fairly successful in the later innings which means he’s either better against lefties in important situations, or managers aren’t taking advantage of his relative inability to hit southpaws. He’s still an extremely valuable player and one of the top 15-20 in the game, but he’s got a hole in his game that could potentially be exploited.
by Dan Turkenkopf on Sep 24, 2008 8:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
excellent point -- in high leverage situations he can be neutralized
his career line against lefties is .222/.282/.390 (ouch), but he’s been much better this year in 156 plate appearances (.264/.316/.438).
his WP stats are just weird — he’s bee slightly clutch every season except for being ginormously unclutch last year. 3.22 WPA/LI but 0.74 WPA (no idea how much of that is due to facing lefties in high-leverage situations, though)
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4747&position=OF
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 24, 2008 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
regarding Albert Pujols
I stopped reading when the first name was Albert Pujols…I don’t care what the explanation is, there is no one in the world that underrates Albert Pujols
Funny enough, Pujols is leading the poll as the single most underrated superstar — there are at least 17 people in the world who think he’s underrated.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 24, 2008 9:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is a great list
So is it whoever gets the least votes the winner then?
Poor Adrian Beltre. Hitting less than 48 homers a year apparently makes you bad.
by VictorW on Sep 25, 2008 11:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah yeah yeah
Woe is Adrian Beltre.
How about adding Ryan Zimmerman to that list? He’s a much better fielder than Beltre, and offensively they’re pretty equal.
Oh yeah, Zimmerman is also 6 years younger.
by Willl on Sep 25, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Much better fielder than Beltre"
Uh, what?
Zimmerman has 42 OOZ and 142 plays in zone out of 197 chances. 184/197 = 0.93401
Beltre has 78 OOZ and 184 plays in zone out of 263 chances. 262/263 = 0.996198
197 times (0.996198-0.93401) = 12.25, the amount of plays Beltre would’ve made more than Zimmerman within 197 chances, or about 10 runs.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 25, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In fairness to Zimmerman, he’s a little banged up this year, and his RZR and OOZ were higher than Beltre’s last year (with about 200 or so more innings played). In a neutral year, they’re probably pretty close, but yeah, “much better fielder” is an overstatement. Zimmerman doesn’t get enough credit for his great defense either since he makes a lot of errors. In one game, I think I saw him Knoblauch the ball 3 times on very routine throws.
Willl, Zimmerman is regarded as one of the future stars of the game whereas Beltre is some “albatross” contract because he hasn’t hit 40+ homers or something. That’s why Beltre is far more underrated, despite the two being somewhat similar.
by VictorW on Sep 25, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not trying to devalue Zimmerman.
He is a good defender and he doesn’t get enough credit, but “much better fielder” when compared to Beltre is hyperbolic.
by R.J. Anderson on Sep 25, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zimmerman's bat is not near Beltre's, last I checked. And Beltre's rating at least as well in combined zone rating the past couple years
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 25, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then I guess you haven't checked recently
Zimmerman has had an off year this year, he’s been playing hurt most of the season. But if you look at their last three years (2008 included), they’re very very similar. Beltre has a little bit more power, Zimmerman is a little bit better at getting on base.
(avg/obp/slg/ops)
Beltre: .270/.327/.468/.795
Zimmerman: .278/.339/.458/.797
Zimmerman and Beltre also have pretty similar zone ratings, range factors, whatever else you want to measure defense in.
Zimmerman’s ZR (2006-2008): .786, .811, .805
Beltre’s: .799, .766, .844
But based simply on the fact that you didn’t realize how statistically similar Beltre and Zimmerman are, doesn’t that make Zimmerman even MORE underrated than Beltre?
by Willl on Sep 25, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yep, i guess i underrate zimmerman more than beltre
i still don’t think most people do, though.
also, beltre has to hit AL pitching and hit in Safeco, which kills his power. he’s a better hitter than Zimmerman. and, while i maybe shouldn’t, i was focusing a bit more on the current season.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 25, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
Keep in mind Zimmerman also used to play in the cavern that was RFK, which was equally power-killing.
Also, I agree with the “underrated-ness” of all the players you’ve named, especially Beltre who gets a bad rap for his contract, which was only exacerbated being surrounded by several really bad contracts (Silva, Sexson, etc).
However, Utley sure does get a lot of attention amongst other NL East teams, so, to me, he’s not underrated, but I can certainly see the your logic.
by Willl on Sep 25, 2008 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
your comment about Utley getting press from the other NL East teams is interesting
I didn’t know that. I guess when you kill them year after year they do start to notice.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 26, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and i do really like zimmerman's future
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 25, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good point on the fewer votes = most underrated
although, maybe someone I failed to put on the list is actually the most underrated (like Markakis)
although, i did mix apples and oranges a bit — Giles is a superstar but isn’t thought of as one. Beltre isn’t a superstar. and Markakis doesn’t have the name recognition yet, but will soon.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 25, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can’t agree on Granderson. For one thing, he got plenty of recognition last season, only less so because he’s been a little banged up — and he’s regressed to his natural mean even while peaking. How is it that so many smart folks never noticed that Granderson had a BABIP of .360 overall last season, including a .390 against righties that masked his serious struggles against lefties? I see him settling in as an 800-850 OPS guy for the next few years as he loses his peak speed, and not really resembling an MVP.
Anyone who still thinks the Mariners’ 5 year, $64MM deal for Beltre was a mistake deserves a complimentary colonoscopy.
First of all, I think everyone deserves a complimentary colonoscopy.
I kind of get the point your point about Beltre, but I think you’ve overstated the case. I think it’s fair to say that he’s been a pretty nice player to have, while many see him as a bust — that makes him underrated. As for the contract, though, he’s been about the 30th highest paid player for four years, while being only somewhat better than, say, Casey Blake.
It’s also kind of bogus analysis tot evaluate a 2005 contract based on 2008 salaries, but even without saying that, I think your estimate of $18 million is a vast overshoot. I don’t see him as Torii Hunter, and the other contracts in that range that have gone to non-superstars have been widely criticized, from the moment they were signed, as ridiculous mistakes.
Now, could Beltre get a $90 million, ridiculous-mistake contract on the free agent market today? Of course he could. After all, that’s basically what he got four years ago.
by Jay on Sep 26, 2008 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
By the way, agree on Beltran and Utley and most of the rest. I think David Wright has managed to be underrated in a manner similar to Pujols, as in, “Yeah, but you don’t understand HOW great he is.”
Despite my critique of Granderson, I did have him in the #5 spot on my SBN MVP ballot last year.
And while I love Giles, this statement …
Giles’ glove has averaged +10 runs in right field over the last two years, making him as valuable defensively as the average center fielder.
… is just not true. I’m pretty sure. You can’t put a +10 RF in CF and expect to get an average CF.
by Jay on Sep 26, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wright's a good one, too.
Tom Tango’s work on positional differences shows that given an average skill set, a guy who plays a corner spot loses about ten runs of value moving to center and vice versa. This is based on players who have moved between positions in the same year. For some fun reading, search http://insidethebook.com for “positional adjustments”. The full spectrum, from his research:
CA + 10
SS/CF + 5
3B/2B +/-0
LF/RF -5
1B -10
DH -15
All numbers over a full season.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 26, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn’t that fairly self-selecting, though?
It seems to be studying only those who have switched positions, i.e., only those whose clubs feel they can handle the demands of CF.
I’m also skeptical of any straight number-of-runs adjustment not just for all defensive skill sets, but for all levels of skill. Surely Ichiro’s translation from RF to CF isn’t just the same as Adam Dunn’s would be.
by Jay on Sep 26, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, now I see we’re talking about positional value rather than positional skill. Actually very different things.
Positional value is about scarcity of players capable of playing each position adequately and/or well and/or exceptionally. The interesting thing about the list you included is that it values CF over 2B — usually it’s thought to be the opposite — and ahead of 3B, usually thought to be almost equivalent. LF and RF are equally scarce, apparently. I’m skeptical that Franklin Gutierrez becomes 15 runs less valuable in RF than in CF, but I can’t say it’s wrong.
Anyway, my point is that — even if I assume Tango is right about the positional values — it still doesn’t necessarily translate. Giles is a +10 defender in RF but might be nowhere near average in CF. On the one hand, you could say that doesn’t matter, because we’re only saying that Giles has the same value as that average CF. On the other hand, it begs the question … is a player like Giles really just as scarce than an average defensive CF with the same numbers at the plate?
by Jay on Sep 26, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good stuff, Jay -- good points and well stated (except for the coloscopy thing)
Some reactions:
- Granderson certainly got some press for his 20/20/20/20/20/20/20/20 thing, but nobody was touting him as an MVP-caliber player, even though Jimmy Rollins did the same thing and won the damn award.
- Beltre’s been better than Casey Blake. Sure, offensively they appear about even in the 110 OPS+ group, but Beltre’s fielding probably gives him a two-win advantage overall.
- I think it’s fine to use 2005 contracts vs. 2008 contracts — after all when the 2005 contract was signed, these teams knew salaries would be higher in the future. I do think that we tend to overreact to high contracts signed right now, because they won’t seem as crazy in the future. My $18MM estimate came like this: Beltre’s a 4.5-win player (I think I showed that math). Right now, free agents are getting $4.5MM per marginal win. 4.5*4.5 plus $500K is about $18MM, a little more actually. No, defense-first guys don’t get this money, but the point is that they SHOULD.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 26, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Beltre is clearly better than Blake, just not by much. Maybe a win or two. I don’t think anybody would have been saying Casey Blake was a good value over the past four seasons had he been making $11.25 million per season — there’s your $18 million figure minus 1.5 marginal wins @ your $4.5 million figure. They’d be saying, “Blech, but I guess I’ve seen worse.”
Although we know in 2005 that salaries will be higher in 2008, we also know in 2008 that they will be higher in 2011 — those assumptions are built into the 2005 pricing and the 2008 pricing already. That’s why you can’t compare across markets.
By the way, where does that $4.5 million come from, anyway? We need to get A-Rod out of that calculation if he isn’t already, but there’s a bigger problem with this line of thinking. Free agents cost X dollars per marginal win — yes — but free agents as group are a terrible value. So if Beltre got your $18 million, he’d be a free agent of average value, which his to say, terrible, and the club would have a free agent contract of average ROI, which is to say, terrible.
So wherever we decide set the dollars per marginal win, the bar has to be significantly higher (or lower in dollars) if you want to call it a good contract. I mean, there may only be about a dozen good free agent contracts in the whole sport during any given season.
by Jay on Sep 26, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, it's all relative when talking about "good" and "bad" free agent contracts
they are rarely good deals compared to players in their first six years.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 27, 2008 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You really can't compare FA contracts to club-control years, can you?
With internal promotions, you have some control over where your resources are allocated. Maybe you’ve got a good track record producing SP, or maybe it’s defensive OF, guys who take walks but don’t steal, etc.. With FA you’re literally plugging the ‘holes’ in your organization which are created either intentionally or accidentally. FA wins are maybe more valuable than club-control wins, because they’re usually the ones which push a team over the top. Maybe I’m saying it wrong, but basically it’s about the relative leverage those wins produce.
Of course FA’s cost astonishingly more than club-control guys. And usually, they aren’t as productive, because you’re buying the decline years as well as the theoretical peaks. But it seems to me that in evaluating roster construction, FA wins should cost more dollars than club-control wins, since they allow you to go worst-to-first at a position of dire need. Just like Adrian Beltre and the M’s. They had no internal prospects worth speaking of for 3B, and they signed him to plug the gap. The delta between what they would have gotten, and what they were able to get by signing him is enormous. Probably among the biggest possible differences you can observe.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
by misterjonez on Sep 30, 2008 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the point about the leverage of free agent wins is a good one
and also the point about free agents usually plugging huge holes — replacing a crappy player with a FA is worth a lot more than replacing a decent player with a FA.
on the other hand, there are also lots of poor free agent signings and lots of team who are forced into free agent signing because of lack of developing internal talent. so while some free agent contracts are smart moves and underrated by a traditional $$/win analysis, there are still some (many?) free agent contracts that are just a waste of money.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 30, 2008 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Florida Jim
What a delight to stumble across this site! Great job on your selections for 8 Most Underrated Superstars. Prince Albert is something special but several others would not have come to my mind, Brian Giles for one. Thank you.
by floridajim on Oct 3, 2008 10:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Do you really like Big Puma over El Hombre?
I’m new to a good many of these measures but having worked with statistics a lot I am starting to understand them. I’m most interested in seeing how Clutch is determined and how Berkman is so much better than Pujols there and why it is that Pujols seems to be average (if I’m interpreting that right) from historical data I’ve checked (on this site). Do these measures take into account things like leadership and baserunning outside of stealing bases? What about decision making on the field? A player like Pujols makes so few mental mistakes. I think Berkman is a fine player but I’d take Pujols over him anyday and I’m trying to say that objectively.
Peace, love, and hair grease,
Smitty
by smittyredbirdsfan on Oct 3, 2008 5:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sorry! Accidentally stuck this in the wrong spot! LOL!
Peace, love, and hair grease,
Smitty
by smittyredbirdsfan on Oct 3, 2008 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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