A Mini-Rant on Lincecum

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 18, 2008 9:00 PM EDT Comment 14 comments

So, remember when I said I was thinking about writing on Tim Lincecum's 138 pitch performance? Well, I've been pondering some more and reached the conclusion that I had something worth posting. Although I'm going to drag out my thesis a bit because otherwise it could very well be a one line post and that's cheap. So instead, here are a few tidbits to consider:

Lincecum has made 14 starts since July 1st. In those starts he has thrown less than 110 pitches only three times.

Lincecum has amassed 120+ pitches four times.

In case you forgot how Lincecum made his season debut; it was in relief (84 pitches over 4 innings) and he pitched on both sides of an hour-plus rain delay.

The thing I find odd is how most analysts are only focusing on Lincecum. Okay, I guess that isn't too odd, he is the best pitcher in the National League, but I decided to look at Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez' usage as well, I would've included Barry Zito but who cares about him anyways?

Cain threw 125 a few weeks ago. Take a quick glance at Lincecum's streak since July 1st and then read the next line. During that same period Cain has thrown less than 110 five times in 15 starts with two of those being his last two times out.

Sanchez hasn't quite gone that far. In fact, his seasonal high is 113 and he's only went over 110 three times this season. Oddly Bruce Bochy doesn't ride him nearly as hard.

I have two comments to make. First off, Earth to San Francisco do you not learn your lesson when Dusty Baker was there? You have three very promising arms and I'm not going to tell you to shut them down but good grief guys at least monitor how hard they're being used in a rebuilding year.

Which leads me to my comment on Lincecum. I have absolutely no doubt that he COULD throw 120 pitches per start and stay healthy however his arm is so damn good that I would not even run that risk in a season this irrelevant. Yes he might win the N.L. Cy Young and that is awesome, but look at what Tampa Bay did with Scott Kazmir last year despite him being the MLB's strikeout king. I'm not going to act like I know biomechanics or how Lincecum's body is going to react because I don't, but I do know he's never had an injury and if I had choice I would try to maintain that.

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Lincecum’s mechanics are amazing. Just when people say his arm is going to fall off they’re wrong. If he hurts himself, it’ll be something below the shoulders. Back, hip, hammy… Anything like that. He does a good job of minimizing that impact as well.

Even with Timmy’s great mechanics, I agree that it’s somewhat risky to stretch him too much. When the body tires, the mechanics aren’t as sharp, and that increases the injury risk.

His dad watches him pretty closely still right? I think he’d at least say something to Timmy or the Giants if he thought the injury risk was serious.

by VictorW on Sep 19, 2008 12:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Prove this:

“Lincecum’s mechanics are amazing. Just when people say his arm is going to fall off they’re wrong. If he hurts himself, it’ll be something below the shoulders.”

Oh wait you can’t. Where did you study biomechanics again?

by Graham on Sep 19, 2008 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think Victor – or RJ, for that matter – is necessarily arguing that Lincecum can’t endure more stress than your “average” pitcher.

The point is that there is absolutely no point in risking it, even if the risk is relatively small.

by Peter Bendix on Sep 19, 2008 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nobody knows what he can or cannot endure.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 19, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I definitely overstated my point, and I’ll try to clarify it: People should worry about injuries to Lincecum’s core and lower body, not his arm. It’s semi-off topic, but it was a general observation of what people have said about him. Lincecum’s like a cricket bowler without the running start. You don’t have to be an expert in biomechanics to understand something as basic as putting less stress on your arm by generating more velocity with your body will reduce the risk of injury to your arm (and increase the risk to your body). I also don’t need to be Albert Pujols to understand that Jeff Francoeur would benefit from not swinging at pitches a foot below and above the strike zone.

We don’t know how much stress Lincecum’s body can or cannot take. We do know that more of the stress is spread through his body and less of it is concentrated in his arm.

by VictorW on Sep 19, 2008 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"We do know that more of the stress is spread through his body and less of it is concentrated in his arm."

No. No you do not.

Turns out when you actually know what you’re talking about, biomechanics isn’t actually all that easy. And I should know because I have a masters degree in it.

by Graham on Sep 20, 2008 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Biomechanics is not that easy. From what I have read about people who know more about the topic than me, Lincecum is, supposedly, able to reduce the stress on his arm with his full body mechanics while risking more to his hips, knees, etc. This may or may not be true, but that’s the general consensus that I have read from people educated on the topic. What I implied was easy to understand is that less stress = less injury risk. Now, maybe his mechanics don’t actually reduce stress on his arm, and maybe it’s all hype (Mark Prior’s flawless mechanics?). Because you do know more about the topic, I wish, in all honestly, that you were more interested in actually discussing his mechanics.

This stuff and all things baseball fascinate me so I did some more searching and actually came across some fairly in depth analysis of Lincecum’s mechanics. It’s certainly more reputable than what I had been reading about Lincecum. Dr. Mike Marshall describes Lincecum as “an accident waiting to happen,” and predicts that Timmy will need Tommy John at some point along with a multitude of other injuries (back, knee). He really thinks Lincecum’s going to severely injure himself. It’s number 489 in Marshall’s hundreds of questions so use your browser’s search function. Tim O’Leary thinks Lincecum has a timing problem which could lead to shoulder/elbow and knee/hip problems. Overall, if you look at this link, O’Leary puts Lincecum in the middle of that group.

This basically dispels that hype that surrounds Lincecum’s mechanics. While it’s still pretty amazing and he’s still an athletic freak, it looks like the mechanics don’t actually reduce injury risk to his elbow and shoulder.

So, yes, I was flat out wrong. I apologize for spreading misinformation.

by VictorW on Sep 21, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some interesting discussion about Lincecum

Plus a breakdown of his throwing motion. From back in 07.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/mechanics/discussion/controlled_fury_tim_lincecum/

by Dan Turkenkopf on Sep 21, 2008 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pay attention to post 34 on that thread.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Sep 21, 2008 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now that's a case.

As I noted at the 138 pitch outing, it’s difficult to see (without the benefit of hindsight on that 21-pitch ninth inning) where you take him out.

But if you’ve been consistently abusing him, then you’re not even looking. In a season that doesn’t matter.

The only possible conclusion is that you’re expecting to lose him as a free-agent as soon as he can (see how the BrewCrew uses CC), and that you are not trying to build a contending team before then.

by klhoughton on Sep 19, 2008 8:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Timmy throws 10 warm up pitches, 20 to make Rags happy. You have to take some of that into account.

"Ice is made for two things: injuries and my drinks." The Lincecums

by igotnothing on Sep 19, 2008 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

and yah, 138 makes my stomach hurt.

"Ice is made for two things: injuries and my drinks." The Lincecums

by igotnothing on Sep 19, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's the story..

That when he pitched his first game he threw 10 warm up pitches and said “I’m ready,” and was told no throw more by Rags. Next time he threw 20 warm up pitches and said “I’m ready.” Then remarked that he was ready after 10 but he threw the next 20 for Rags. What credit we can put in that I’m not sure, but that’s the story. I do believe that perhaps he does save some endurance with his low amount of warm up pitches, compared to around 40 for a normal pitcher, but how much this would actually save him in the actual game is unknown.

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by WalrusMan on Sep 19, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm glad that his workload was lowered last night..

He only threw 118 pitches! This is also something that is interesting. Towards the bottom Mr. Xanthan talks a bit about the pitch f/x of Lincecum’s last start, that he was about a mph down, and had lower movement on his fastball, and consequently threw more off speed stuff.

by WalrusMan on Sep 19, 2008 3:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs