RBIs For Fielders
One of the toughest aspects of crediting fielding is putting it on the same scale as offense. Whereas hitters hit for AVG, tally HRs, and knock in RBIs, fielders try to avoid committing errors and range after out-of-zone plays (OOZ). Raise your hand if you intuitively know how many OOZs equal one HR? Anybody? Yeah, didn't think so.
So the next step is to translate everything onto the same scale -- runs is a popular choice. After all, a run saved is a run scored. On offense, we've been doing that for a while in the form of linear weights. On defense, it's all relatively new. My favorite method is to convert zone rating into runs saved. (You can read about that method here.) But still, how intuitive is it to say that Hitter A has create 50 runs or that Fielder B has saved 20 runs? Most people aren't familiar with that scale.
My proposal, which I outlined last week, is to translate production onto the RBI scale, which even BBWAA members can understand. From my first article, each additional run created (or prevented on defense) is worth 1.6 RBIs.
As an example, Mark Ellis has a .897 BIS zone rating and .868 STATS zone rating -- not very helpful. Compared to the average second baseman, he's made 27 and 19 extra plays respectively -- more helpful. Converted to runs and averaged, he's saved 18 runs -- we're almost there. But converted to RBIs, Ellis' fielding is worth 29 RBIs. Yes, twenty-nine RBIs. That's pretty signifcant, right? That's the difference between Ryan Howard and Aramis Ramirez on the RBI leader boards. Adding 29 RBIs to Ellis' own offensive total of 41 RBIs yields a new total of 70 RBIs -- makes him seem like a decent ballplayer, right? Well, he is.
Ok, time for some tables. Here are the players who gain the most RBIs from their defensive contributions (where defense = position + fielding your position):
| Player | defRBI |
|---|---|
| Adrian Beltre | 37 |
| Jason Kendall | 32 |
| Chase Utley | 29 |
| Mark Ellis | 28 |
| Marco Scutaro | 28 |
| Scott Rolen | 27 |
| Carlos Beltran | 26 |
| Franklin R Gutierrez | 26 |
| Carlos A Gomez | 26 |
| Yunel Escobar | 25 |
| Kurt K Suzuki | 23 |
| Willie Harris | 23 |
| Grady Sizemore | 23 |
| Jose Molina | 22 |
| Joe Mauer | 21 |
| Adam Kennedy | 21 |
| Cesar Izturis | 21 |
| Placido Polanco | 20 |
| Omar Vizquel | 20 |
| Brian Giles | 20 |

And here are the players who lose the most RBIs based on their defensive shortcomings:
| Player | defRBI |
|---|---|
| Bobby Abreu | -47 |
| Brad B Hawpe | -38 |
| Jason Bay | -37 |
| Mike Jacobs | -34 |
| Delmon D Young | -33 |
| Raul Ibanez | -29 |
| Jorge L Cantu | -28 |
| Manny Ramirez | -28 |
| Justin Morneau | -27 |
| Prince Fielder | -27 |
| Jason J Kubel | -25 |
| Richie Sexson | -24 |
| Casey Blake | -24 |
| Jose Guillen | -24 |
| Jason Giambi | -23 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | -23 |
| Milton Bradley | -23 |
| Alex J Gordon | -23 |
| Ross Gload | -23 |
| Aubrey Huff | -22 |
How about the overall RBI leaders if RBIs were actually an accurate measure of overall value, including both offense and defense?
| Player | dRBI |
|---|---|
| Albert Pujols | 157 |
| Grady Sizemore | 140 |
| Lance Berkman | 138 |
| Mark Teixeira | 136 |
| Chipper Jones | 125 |
| Chase Utley | 125 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 122 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 118 |
| Carlos Beltran | 108 |
| Matt T Holliday | 108 |
| David A Wright | 104 |
| Dustin L Pedroia | 103 |
| Brian Giles | 101 |
| Curtis Granderson | 101 |
| Manny Ramirez | 99 |
| Brian Roberts | 98 |
| Joe Mauer | 97 |
| Josh H Hamilton | 96 |
| Adrian Beltre | 96 |
| Ryan J Braun | 95 |
Adrian Beltre and Ryan Braun have been equally valuable? Crazy! Brian Giles has been Manny Ramirez's equal -- why haven't I read that article at ESPN.com yet? Matt Holliday's still one of the best players in baseball? Nobody told me that!
How about the players who are most underrated by their actual RBI total compared to what they're actually worth?
| Player | dRBI-RBI |
|---|---|
| Hanley Ramirez | 60 |
| Albert Pujols | 59 |
| Grady Sizemore | 56 |
| Chipper Jones | 55 |
| Brian Giles | 47 |
| Brian Roberts | 45 |
| Curtis Granderson | 44 |
| Rafael Furcal | 39 |
| Lance Berkman | 38 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 37 |
| Chone Figgins | 35 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 32 |
| Chase Utley | 32 |
| Jose Reyes | 31 |
| Mike A Aviles | 28 |
| Gabe J Gross | 27 |
| Matt T Holliday | 27 |
| Jody Gerut | 27 |
| Rajai Davis | 26 |
| Kurt K Suzuki | 26 |
Funny enough, the most productive players in each league appear near the top of this list: Albert Pujols and Grady Sizemore. Great and underrated?
Finally, here's the Ryan Howard list -- players who are most overrated by their actual RBI totals:
| Player | dRBI-RBI |
|---|---|
| Ryan J Howard | -84 |
| Jose Guillen | -84 |
| Mike Jacobs | -75 |
| Jeff B Francoeur | -74 |
| Mark A Reynolds | -70 |
| Garrett Atkins | -64 |
| Ryan F Garko | -62 |
| Jorge L Cantu | -57 |
| Melvin Mora | -57 |
| Bobby Abreu | -57 |
| Carlos Delgado | -53 |
| Brad B Hawpe | -52 |
| Delmon D Young | -52 |
| Miguel Cabrera | -52 |
| Justin Morneau | -51 |
| Robinson Cano | -50 |
| Prince Fielder | -47 |
| Jose Vidro | -46 |
| Jason J Kubel | -46 |
| Bengie Molina | -45 |
I count three guys on that list who are receiving way more MVP support than they deserve: Howard, Carlos Delgado, and Justin Morneau. This table also answers the questions, "should the Yankees bring back Bobby Abreu?", "do the Rays miss Delmon Young?", and "was not re-signing Jose Guillen the reason the Mariners stunk it up this year?"
If you read this post, some of these lists should look familiar. I've just re-scaled Justin's stats onto the RBI scale and compared it to actual RBIs. All fielding stats through September 5th. All actual RBI stats through September 9th. Thanks to The Hardball Times for providing most of the stats Justin uses in his calculations.
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Interesting stuff.
A few notes:
*Mark Ellis will be the steal of the offseason
*Grady Sizemore deserves the MVP
*What’s up with Jason Bay’s defensive stats? Is he really that bad?
by Peter Bendix on
Sep 17, 2008 4:48 PM EDT
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thanks
- I agree, if his surgery goes fine.
- I agree, with zero reservations.
- No idea — he was fine with Pittsburgh, but he’s already 10 runs below average for a LF with Boston. Could be a Green Monster thing, but I believe BIS has finally accounted for that and even Manny was better than than a -10 runs over 1.5 months pace.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Sep 17, 2008 4:52 PM EDT
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Are these adjusted for playing time or actual playing time?
I have a hard time believing that in just 81 games so far this season, Omar Vizquel has saved 20 runs. Even after losing some of his skill to old age, he is still quite the fielder. But he’ll only play a little over half a season this year.
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
How is my adopted son almost twice as old as I am? Nevermind...Go Omar! Warm the Bench!
by WalrusMan on
Sep 17, 2008 11:27 PM EDT
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these are raw totals, not pro-rated to a full season
but keep in mind they also include a position adjustment, so Omar’s getting, say, 5 RBIs just for playing shortstop and then 15 for playing it better than the average shortstop.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Sep 17, 2008 11:33 PM EDT
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Give Yunel a Gold Glove NOW
But a SS on a playoff team will win it.
Man is Beltre ever good at 3rd. I always heard he was an elite defender, but that’s pretty ridiculous.
by VictorW on
Sep 18, 2008 12:05 AM EDT
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Beltre = underrrated.
Big-time. Absolutely amazing defensive 3B. Horrible luck on his offensive game this year, though :(
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
by misterjonez on
Sep 22, 2008 1:19 AM EDT
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horrible luck, aka Safeco's left field wall
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Sep 22, 2008 10:30 AM EDT
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Milton Bradley's defRBI seems very low
considering he only played 20 games in the OF this year as compared to 90 games at DH. Does the DH get a 0 (zero) for defRBI?
by NorCalRangersFan on
Sep 18, 2008 5:33 PM EDT
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DHs get a big negative penalty
on the runs scale, it’s -15 runs over a full season. converted to this RBI scale, that’s -24 RBIs. Milton’s penalty isn’t that much because he hasn’t played a full season and he’s played some corner outfield (-5 runs or -8 RBI over a full season). but he also rates a bit below average in right field, so he loses a bit more.
in general, the the position adjustments are, over a full season:
CA: +10 runs, +16 RBI
SS/CF: +5 runs, +8 RBI
3B/2B: +/- 0
LF/RF: -5 runs, -8 RBI
1B: -10 runs, -16 RBI
DH: -15 runs, -24 RBI
Justin actually bumps the infielders up one run and the outfielders down one run because it’s slightly more accurate, but I like using the multiple of fives as a shortcut. Those adjustments are based on how easy it is to find someone who can competently field each position and still have a decent bat. Tom Tango did a study comparing how fielders performed at each of two different position when they played both within the same season.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Sep 18, 2008 5:58 PM EDT
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