Is Rich Harden Hurt, Again?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 12, 2008 4:40 PM EDT

The Cubs big acquisition made his first start since August 29th last night against the hated Cardinals and while his results weren't poor his fastball velocity was. Per Josh Kalk's player card Harden's fastball usually sits at 93.59 miles per hour yet last night Harden topped out at 93.5 and averaged 89.91.

I decided to take his fastball velocity from last night and compare it to a game where I knew he was healthy. Naturally I chose his July 21st game against the Arizona Diamondbacks (max speed: 95, average: 91.65) to give visual evidence to scan over.

Hardencards_medium

Hardendbacks_medium

I'm not a doctor nor a mathematics major, but there's something wrong with these two pitchers and it starts with the downed velocity in the most recent start.

Thoughts, concerns?

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Not sure...

I’m not sure if he’s hurt again, but if his command is good and he can throw 6ish innings giving up 2 runs in his next starts I think the Cubs will be alright. Speed isn’t everything (i.e. Greg Maddux). Let’s look at Billy Wagner, he need surgery but can still throw 90+. The speed isn’t much of a determining factor with injury, but control is.

by bryan_05 on Sep 12, 2008 5:09 PM EDT reply actions

Oh, I was not in any way saying velocity is required for success.

One of my favorite pitchers is Andrew Sonnanstine who sits high 80’s.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 12, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

As a Cubs fan, I'm concerned about the dreaded "dead arm"

But I don’t know that it’s an injury situation. As bryan_05 points out, control can be more predictive/indicative of an injury than velocity.

That said, the last thing we need is Harden with less velocity going up againt the Brew Crew or into a playoff matchup with a power-hitting team. (Phillies, maybe?)

by cocknfire on Sep 12, 2008 6:14 PM EDT reply actions

I could be wrong.

But usually isn’t reduced velocity a symptom of a shoulder injury?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 12, 2008 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions

It's usually a symptom of a shoulder problem

However, that problem is often just fatigue or “dead arm”, rather than actual tissue damage.

Problem is, it’s very hard to tell the two apart. Sometimes a team announces a tired arm and then the guy comes back at full strength 2 weeks later. And sometimes he goes on the 60-day DL 2 weeks later.

Just have to wait and see, I guess.

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by PaulThomas on Sep 12, 2008 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions

That makes sense.

Perhaps it’s something to do with his plant leg as well?

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 12, 2008 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions

the fact that Harden's velocity is down certainly isn't conclusive evidence of an injury

but a drop in 3 mph HAS to be a concern anyway. RJ, how about average fastball velocity for some more starts, or every start this year?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 12, 2008 7:29 PM EDT reply actions

I included his seasonal average in the opener.

93.59 overall.

by R.J. Anderson on Sep 12, 2008 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Reduced velocity.

I would like to see more data points (one or two more starts), but in general, reduction in velocity is an indicator that there is some sort of niggling injury.

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by Kyle Boddy on Sep 13, 2008 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

I watched this start,

and his fastball was coming in around 88-89 for much of the game. Velocity drops in-game as well as changes in release point during a start are usually signs of injury, however his velocity creeped up into the nineties near the end of his start, and his movement seemed very good. He got a very high number of outs on fly balls, and although he didn’t give up many walks, he really was not throwing a high percentage of strikes.

A little more patience by the cardinals, and I think we would have seen that Harden is definitely not himself, whether that is because of lingering injury or rust, I’m not positive.

Space.

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We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Sep 13, 2008 9:22 AM EDT reply actions